Determining expectations - What is the probability Nebraska wins out and reaches the playoff?

[tschu]

We're at the point of the season where we know a little bit about this team, we know a little bit about the other teams around the nation, and while the playoff race is still wide open it's beginning to at least form some semblence of a shape.

 

Before I get to Nebraska, let's take a look at the wider playoff picture. So who controls their own destiny, assuming they win out? (Don't kill me if I forgot someone, and feel free to disagree considering this list is simply pulled from the brain of tschu and nowhere else)

 

The Undefeateds - these teams would clearly be in

Florida State

Mississippi State

Ole Miss

 

The Obvious 1-loss teams - these teams are likely >98% or something to be in if they win out. Essentially locks.

Auburn

Alabama

Georgia

Oregon

Kansas State

Notre Dame

 

 

The Semi-Obvious 1-loss teams - not total locks and may need a sliver of help, but still very very likely to be in

Michigan State - this one is tough since it depends a bit on how Oregon finishes. Honestly could be either group.

Ohio State

TCU

Baylor

Arizona State

Arizona

Utah

 

2-loss teams with a (probably quite small) chance

Oklahoma

West Virginia

LSU

Clemson

 

 

So where does Nebraska fit in? Well, probably in the Semi-Obvious 1-loss group with MSU and Ohio State. There are a lot of scenarios out there where we have an FSU team with few remaining challenges yet, a Notre Dame team with a very manageable schedule, and two SEC teams getting in (Say Alabama beats Ole Miss for Ole Miss's only loss or something similar - two very deserving 1-loss teams which are inarguably better than Nebraska would both by vying for the spot. And I haven't even touched on the potential Pac-12 champ, but you kind of get the picture. So, we may need some help.

 

Now fortunately, it's still early. Many of these 1-loss teams and even undefeateds are going to weed themselves out and the picture will be a ton clearer by mid-November. It's way way to early to start projecting exact scenarios - it would be an exercise in futility. There are simply too many ways that everything could play out.

 

But one thing we do know is that to have a chance, we must win out. And what are the chances of that?

 

Using Sagarin's predictor, I calculated spread values for each of our remaining games since it's pretty much the most objective way of determining this sort of thing. Then I converted each spread to a win probability using a formula I got from a stats guy who does CFB spread/probability work a lot - the resulting win probabilities can be multiplied to get the chance that we win out (50% probabilities were used for spreads under 2 due to margin of error, and an average of MSU/tOSU's ratings was used for the opponent in the B1GCCG since it will almost certainly be one of those two teams, and those two teams already have nearly identical predictor ratings) In addition, you can calculate how many total wins we're expected to get from our remaining schedule to estimate a final record.

 

 

 

So, our chance of winning out is about 12% using the Sagarin data. This includes playing in the Big Ten championship game. In addition, the expected record for our remaining regular season games is roughly 4-1 for a final record of 10-2 (which may or may not mean a berth to the title game).

 

 

Of course, I don't think that winning out necessarily guarantees Nebraska a berth to the title game - I think that it's absolutely possible we could be snubbed depending on the scenario. But I think that a 12-1 Nebraska would certainly have a >50% chance of getting in. So in total, a 12% chance isn't very high. At all. But, it's certainly not a zero. Just gotta take care of business.

[The Dude]

*too

[True2tRA]

I guess I'm not seeing how you got 12%?

 

I'm gonna go with the simple answer and say the Conference Champions of 4/5 power conferences will be in the playoff.

 

 

As much as the national media and apparently even the Big Tens own media outlets trash the strength/weakness of this conference, I wouldn't be surprised if the Big Ten is the one left out. It will first depend on us taking care if us. Then depend on the ranking of OSU or MSU when we beat them in the title game.

[tschu]

Chance of winning out is the win probabilities of each game multiplied by each other, which gives the .12. Actually if you update the Rutgers game to its real spread which is 17, it drops a half point to 11.5%, but whatever.

[Dbqgolfer]

The 12% is all the win probabilities multiplied together.

I think we would need a lot of help, as we would probably be seen as one of the worse of the 1 loss teams.

[LumberJackSker]

Even if Nebraska wins out I don't like our chances. Strength of schedule for us isn't very good and a win in the conference championship could be our only win verse a ranked team. If there are two sec teams that only one loss they both most likely get in along with FSU and maybe the PAC 12 champ

[JJ Husker]

When I saw the question in the title, I immediately thought about a 5% chance. So, I guess 12% is pretty good. Making it in to the 4 team playoff is largely out of our control at this point. Unless we annihilate the rest of our schedule, I feel we'll be left on the outside looking in. Of P5 conferences, any 1 loss B1G team will likely be looked at as inferior to other 1 loss teams. Depending how the SEC cannibalize itself in the remaining games, I can easily see them getting 2 of the spots. That's not much room left for anybody from the B1G.

 

I would still be more than satisfied to win out, including the ccg, and play in the Rose Bowl on New Years day. No shame in that and we wouldn't necessarily be getting screwed in that scenario, depending on which teams get in.

 

Disclaimer- I believe there is about a 10% chance we win out. If I was forced to bet on it, I would have to go with us dropping another game and probably not even making the ccg. I've got to see this team play more than 2 quarters before I'll believe they won't find a way to screw this up.

[tschu]

Personally I think that would be soul-crushing haha, but I guess it depends on who got in ahead of us and in what scenario. But I mean that would be great progress for the program nonetheless and would shut the non-Bo-lievers like myself up.

[Something Clever]

Even if Nebraska wins out I don't like our chances. Strength of schedule for us isn't very good and a win in the conference championship could be our only win verse a ranked team. If there are two sec teams that only one loss they both most likely get in along with FSU and maybe the PAC 12 champ

 

The Pac-12 seems to me to be the conference most likely to cannibalize itself. It's a strong conference as a whole but not one team looks like its going to be able to pull away from the group and come out with only one loss.

[JJ Husker]

Personally I think that would be soul-crushing haha, but I guess it depends on who got in ahead of us and in what scenario. But I mean that would be great progress for the program nonetheless and would shut the non-Bo-lievers like myself up.

I agree and I'm right there with ya about not being a BOliever. I would love to see them win out though. It's not that I want Bo to fail, I've just seen this team unprepared and unmotivated too many times. I would love for that to change and for Bo to stick around a long time. I would also like to win Powerball.

[LumberJackSker]

 

 

Even if Nebraska wins out I don't like our chances. Strength of schedule for us isn't very good and a win in the conference championship could be our only win verse a ranked team. If there are two sec teams that only one loss they both most likely get in along with FSU and maybe the PAC 12 champ

The Pac-12 seems to me to be the conference most likely to cannibalize itself. It's a strong conference as a whole but not one team looks like its going to be able to pull away from the group and come out with only one loss.

that would be great for Nebraska, IF Nebraska wins the Big 10 with only one loss and the PAC 12 champ has 2 losses our chance would be better

[skersfan]

If we happen to win out, we will have a single victory over a ranked team. Body of work is far below the rest if they all just have one loss. Undefeated will stay way ahead, possibly Florida State. I think Mississippi and Ole Miss will each have one loss. If so their bodies of work are both far superior to ours.

 

Oregon stays with one loss, same deal.

 

TCU, KState and Baylor all have one loss. TCU and KState either finishing with one loss will have a stronger platform than the Huskers

 

It is not about conference championships, it is putting the best four teams in the play off. At least that is the stated goal.

 

We will have a better idea next Tuesday I guess.

 

And Notre Dame has a lot of tough games to play, several ranked teams and their loss was to number one in the final seconds.

 

I honestly at this time still do not see a big 10 team getting in, unless everyone starts losing. We have beaten no one and we still have McNeese state around our necks.

 

But it was stated that Michigan State was the odds on favorite to win the Playoff. Discussed today on XM. So who knows.

 

As to the Pac 12 and having two losses, if it is Oregon, they have defeated the projected Big 10 representative soundly

 

SEC will definitely cannibalize itself. Bama and Auburn have to play, Mississippi state and Ole Miss. Georgia could sneak in with a win in the ccg. The other side is going to beat itself to death.

 

Thinking we have a chance is great, but highly doubtful. Again it is college football and in 6 weeks it could be completely different. Got to love it.