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lies, damn lies, and statistics


beorach

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Oregon didn't post gaudy defensive stats against the pass such that I thought F$U might give them trouble last week (considering their best cover corner was also out). I'm looking at the Pac-12 teams' offensive stats, though, and figuring there are a few bases to excuse the less than stellar numbers the Ducks posted against the pass during the regular season.

 

1 - Only Utah has an overall rating that's below average in the category of passing offense and seven teams posted very good to great numbers.

2 - Conversely, only Oregon has an overall rating that's (actually well) above average in the category of rushing offense.

3 - Taking a team's full body of work into account ignores improvement.

 

I posted here that I thought Michigan State was the only good bet (against the spread) of all the B1G bowl teams. That statement had to do with fearing the unknown with respect to strength of schedule (SOS) as much as anything and the Spartans had that edge versus the Bears. Turnover margin is another item I look at as a reason not to risk a wager but both teams excelled roughly equally within that category on the season. Before adjusting for SOS, I had calculated a spread of Baylor +4 for that game.

 

On paper, I had Alabama as a 3.5-point underdog to Ohio State before any SOS adjustment (which, per the experts, favored the Tide). Neither team had much better than average stats within the turnover margin category.

 

For the championship game, I have Oregon +8 but the Ducks have the SOS edge again. The Ducks' turnover margin rating is considerably better than that of the Buckeyes, too.

 

Getting into the B1G's offenses a la the Pac-12 consideration above, we can draw some conclusions about the Buckeyes' stellar defensive stats against the pass and mostly average ones against the run.

 

1 - Ten of the B1G teams have below average numbers in the category of passing offense.

2 - Four of the B1G teams have below average numbers in the category of rushing offense with six having very good to great ones.

 

Ohio State and Oregon both have just slightly above average stats against the run overall. Ohio State has great numbers against the pass while Oregon doesn't (again, just considering the total body of work against FBS teams without figuring in the CCG (+ Army vs. Navy) week). Oregon's numbers in the total defense category aren't great either and their scoring defense, while well above average, aren't up to Ohio State's standards.

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And this belongs in the Husker football forum why?

 

Should it go in the B1G forum instead? I figured it's about football and our conference's place with respect to the national championship picture. The fact our coaching staff has ties to the Pac-12 made their figures relevant to me as well (as a Husker fan). I was concerned about the lack of rushing production from Oregon State but the game they play out west is clearly different.

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And this belongs in the Husker football forum why?

 

Should it go in the B1G forum instead? I figured it's about football and our conference's place with respect to the national championship picture. The fact our coaching staff has ties to the Pac-12 made their figures relevant to me as well (as a Husker fan). I was concerned about the lack of rushing production from Oregon State but the game they play out west is clearly different.

 

It goes in the Other Sports forum which is where it was ultimately moved.

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