McKewon: Following Heisman Winners

[Mavric]

This is from a series of tweets by Sam McKewon. Since we can only embed two tweets per post, I've just copied the content instead of having to embed the tweets across several posts. Pretty interesting.

 

 

Recent statistical history tells us there are two specific teams in the preseason top ten that are almost certainly overrated. Any guesses?

 

Here's the top 10 in order: OSU, TCU, Bama, Baylor, Oregon, Michigan State, Auburn, FSU, UGA, USC. Which 2? They have something in common.

 

The answer: Florida State and Oregon. Both are replacing Heisman winners. But here's the math...

 

Since 2000, the average team record of Heisman winners - in the year they won the Heisman - is 11.69-1.54. Tebow (2007) had the worst (9-4).

 

The collective record of those teams they *year after* those Heisman winners leave (or in S. Bradford's case, get hurt): 9.23-3.69.

 

Weinke: 11-2 to 8-4

Crouch: 11-2 to 7-7

Palmer: 11-2 to 12-1

White: 12-1 to 8-4

Leinart: 13-0 to 11-2

Bush: 12-1 to 11-2

Smith: 12-1 to 11-2

Tebow: 9-4 to 8-5

Bradford: 12-2 to 8-5

Ingram: 14-0 to 12-1

Newton: 14-0 to 8-5

RGIII: 10-3 to 8-5

Manziel: 11-2 to 8-5

 

The *only* team that got better after Heisman winner left? 2003 USC. Which had Leinart and Bush on it.

 

One could argue 2011 Bama was better than 2009 Bama (I would.) One could also argue Ingram didn't deserve the Heisman. (I would.)

 

It seems very, very, very unlikely to me that Oregon and Florida State both escape this statistical quicksand.