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Huskers/Iowa: Tale of the Tape


Mavric

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Some stats put together in this article:

 

Iowa is +11 in turnover margin for the year; Huskers are -10

Iowa outscoring opponents 71-23 in the first quarter

Iowa averaging 34.2 points per game; Huskers 33.5

Iowa allowing 18.5 ppg; Huskers 27.7

Iowa averaging 418.3 yards per game; Huskers 443.4

Iowa averaging 208.3 rushing yards per game; Huskers allowing 109.8

Iowa has committed 55 penalties; Huskers have 80

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Nebraska also outscores their opponents in the 1st quarter 84-48.

 

Iowa’s biggest scoring quarter is the 2nd. The whole thing where he says they start fast is overblown. 28 of their 71 1st quarter points came against North Texas and Purdue. Minus those 2 games they outscore their opponents in the 1st quarter 48-23. That’s not starting fast at all IMO.

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Iowa is pretty good, but something tells me they're due for a big wake up call soon. I'm not saying that Nebraska will be the one to do it; but, they haven't played a single Top 10 team, their best win was a very ugly win on the road against Wisconsin and they've looked fairly unremarkable in some of their wins. Their SOS is 66.

 

Credit for winning the games on their schedule, but I'm still very skeptical of just how good they are.

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The turnover margin is an interesting contrast for this game.

 

I like our chances there. Even though some teams are consistently good or bad in this stat, by nature it is a volatile and inconsistent thing. Reference Phil Steele's "turnover=turnaround" concept.

 

Long story short, the law of averages will work in our favor

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Nebraska ranks 41st in the FPI with a 5-6 record above 33 teams with a better record.

That includes ranking above 8 B1G teams including 5 teams that Nebraska lost to.

Iowa built their only undefeated 11-0 start in school history on the backs of 8 schools with a worse FPI than Nebraska and an FCS school.

The only two teams on Iowa's schedule with an FPI ranking higher than Nebraska was Wisconsin (29th) and Pitt (36th). Iowa beat Pitt at home on a game ending 57 yard field goal. Iowa forced two turnovers in the 4th quarter, including a fumble on the 1-yard line to beat Wisconsin on the road. Wisconsin held Iowa to 221 total yards.

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