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National Championship - Clemson vs. Alabama


Mavric

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^^That's pretty unacceptable. In that case, a governing body like... I don't know... the NCAA perhaps... should step in equalize the situation.

 

As far as the game is concerned, Clemson's got a great shot, but it's hard for me to pick against Alabama.

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Nothing to see here. No real reason to watch. Alabama is going to pound them.

The difference between Clemson and MSU is that Clemson has a secondary.

 

If they can stop Henry, they win.

 

MSU's issue was, while they could stop Henry, they couldn't stop the other aspect of the offense.

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Who ya got?

 

I thought Oklahoma would beat Clemson but I'm hoping the Tigers can keep Alabama from adding to the luster of their current dynastic form.

 

Here are the average z-scores for all the categories, with the ones calculated considering all FBS games first and just games between P5 teams second (without SOS adjustment through the games played ahead of the CCG weekend):

 

Pass D

Alabama: 1.21 and 0.92

Clemson: 1.48 and 1.24

 

Pass O

Alabama: 0.12 and 0.10

Clemson: 0.86 and 1.14

 

Rush D

Alabama: 2.11 and 2.06

Clemson: 0.93 and 0.83

 

Rush O

Alabama: 0.65 and 0.71

Clemson: 0.64 and 1.12

 

Scoring D

Alabama: 1.79 and 1.43

Clemson: 1.10 and 0.66

 

Scoring O

Alabama: 0.43 and 0.38

Clemson: 0.96 and 1.27

 

Total D

Alabama: 1.66 and 1.53

Clemson: 1.51 and 1.47

 

Total O

Alabama: 0.26 and 0.32

Clemson: 1.05 and 1.50

 

Turnover Margin

Alabama: 0.43 and 0.17

Clemson: -0.10 and -0.52

 

By my rough calculations, Alabama has played a tougher schedule. Given that Clemson has also had a tougher time with turnovers, I wouldn't consider the Tigers a good bet. On the other hand, I feel like their better offense (insofar as we can believe it's better, based on the stats over the course of a whole season against a different level of competition yadda yadda) could give them a chance if they get a fast start and avoid mistakes.

 

p.s. - Taking Notre Dame out of the equation has to explain the Clemson differences, to a large extent.

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