2016 Opponent Previews: Oregon

[Saunders]

Athlon Sports

Oregon’s streak of seven consecutive double-digit win seasons ended in 2015. However, the Ducks weren’t too far off their usual tally, as coach Mark Helfrich’s team finished 9-4 and suffered three of the four losses by a touchdown or less. As the focus shifts to 2016, Oregon has work to do in order to catch Stanford and Washington in the Pac-12 North this year. The Ducks are hoping a FCS graduate transfer (Dakota Prukop) is the right answer at quarterback, while the defense expects to take a step forward under new coordinator Brady Hoke. There’s plenty of talent in the program, and Oregon catches Stanford and Washington in Autzen Stadium this year. The development of Prukop and improvement on defense will determine just how high Helfrich’s Ducks fly in the North in 2016.

National Forecast - #24

Pac 12 North Prediction - #3

http://athlonsports.com/college-football/top-25/oregon-ducks-2016-preview-and-prediction

 

 

CollegeFootballNews.com

After failing to win at least 10 games for the first time since Mike Bellotti was still on staff in 2007, Oregon is looking to recapture its championship form.

 

Last year was a strange one in Eugene, marked by an uncharacteristically rocky start, a torrid regular season finish and an Alamo Bowl collapse to TCU. There was a general lack of consistency, born in part from injuries, that head coach Mark Helfrich wants to see eliminated in 2016.

 

The upcoming season is a big one for Helfrich, his fourth since becoming the guy in charge. No more benefitting from the roster or the momentum built by predecessor Chip Kelly. From top to bottom, this is a Helfrich production.

 

Preview Part 1: http://collegefootballnews.com/2016/oregon-ducks-preview-2016
Preview Part 2 & Prediction Video: http://collegefootballnews.com/2016/oregon-preview-2016-duck-up
Ten Players You Need To Know: http://collegefootballnews.com/2016/top-10-oregon-football-players-for-2016

Prediction: 10-2

Phil Steele

 

Helfrich was 24-4 with Mariota at QB and is now 9-4 without him. They should be more stable at QB and have perhaps the best combo of skill players in the Pac-12. Their defense will be improved. Oregon does rate a Stock Market Indicator of +3.0 and they get the two biggest Pac-12 North games (Stanford and Washington) at home. While they have 5 Pac-12 road games, three of them are against teams that had a winning record in conf play LY (one at 0-9 OSU). Oregon was #99 in my experience rankings in '15 and slip to #102 in '16. When a team has 6 straight years where they average 12 wins per season and then slip to 9, I would usually be calling for a bounce back to the higher level, but I am not here. They are a clear-cut contender in the North if they take care of business in Autzen where they are 44-5 over the last 7 years.

 

https://www.philsteele.com/Pdf/2016_Top_40_Countdown/26_Oregon.pdf

 

 

SBNation: Why the heck aren't we talking about Oregon as a serious Pac-12 contender?

I understand why people like Stanford, and I've been in the front car of the Washington bandwagon. But we should be talking about the Pac-12 North as a three-way race.

2016 projected wins: 8.2
Projected S&P+ ranking: 18 (4 in Pac 12)
5-year recruiting ranking: 19 (4 in Pac 12)
Biggest strength: The fastest, deepest, and maybe best set of skill position talent in the country.
Biggest question mark: Can the run defense go from abysmal to merely below average? That could make the difference in the Pac-12 race.
Biggest 2016 game: Stanford (Nov. 12). One of these two has won each of the five Pac-12 North titles. Washington could disrupt that continuity, but until otherwise noted, the title runs through either Eugene or Palo Alto.
Summary: Oregon is still one of the fastest teams in the country and boasts a level of depth and experience that it in no way had while going 9-4 last year. Mere competence at quarterback will make the Ducks a serious Pac-12 contender.

Read the awesome in depth preview here: http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/7/1/12070546/oregon-football-2016-preview-schedule-roster

 

 

 

More to come...

[darkhorse85]

I'm not sure I'm ready for Brady Hoke's clapping again. Do you think he'll clap in the booth?

[Redux]

I'm not sure I'm ready for Brady Hoke's clapping again. Do you think he'll clap in the booth?

I think the real question is will he wear a headset?

[darkhorse85]

He'll use an old school megaphone or a zipline with a binder clip like they use to place orders at Hooters.

[Redux]

He'll use an old school megaphone or a zipline with a binder clip like they use to place orders at Hooters.

It would be way cooler if HE zip lined down.

[Red Five]

Fun fact about Hoke:

 

He has not been a DC* since 1982 at Yorktown IN High School.

 

*I don't know if he was the de facto DC at Ball St/SDSU (a la Bo here). At Michigan he had Mattison running the D.

[Sargon]

NU -2 is the early line on this game. I like seeing Vegas having a bit of confidence in NU. (we are +2 and +4 vs. Wisky)

 

Seems OU strength is at running back. Keep him and our turnovers in check and we should win (by 1 point with 14 seconds left on the clock).

[Scratchtown]

Well they are switching essentially switching from Aliotti's 3-4 to a 4-3.

 

They have speed all over the field and tons of talent. Here's a breakdown of what their depth chart could look like.

 

Offense: Bolded = Significant playing time in 2015

 

QB:

Dakota Prukop 6'2" 195 (Grad Transfer - Montana St)

Travis Jonsen 6'3" 194 (RFrosh)

Terry Wilson 6'3" 195 (Frosh)

Jeff Lockie 6'2" 205 (Senior)

 

**From watching the spring game, Prukop looks to be the solid number one. Jonsen ("Waller" on recruit profile) and Wilson are the two darkhorses here. If Prukop can have numbers like he did at Montana St, Oregon will be more than solid. IF not, then look for a similar year to last season the time when Vernon Adams was hurt. Lockie must have moved down the depth chart in the spring. It was clear that Prukop, Jonsen, and Wilson have overtaken him in the spring. Lockie is working out with the wideouts but him and another QB Taylor Alie have been moved into a role of "Half mentor, half wideout" but are still doing precautionary drills at QB in case of a horrible scenario.

 

RB:

Royce Freeman 5'11" 230 (Junior)

Kani Benoit 6'0' 210 (Junior)

Taj Griffin 5'10"175 (Soph)

Tony Brooks-James 5'9" 185 (Soph)

 

**Speed for days. Period. All 4 will play, as they all did last season. Oregon wants to run the ball there's no secret about that. IIRC they have been in the top 15 in the nation in rushing every year since 2008. I believe that only 1 time have they been outside the top 10. 4 or 5 times they led the nation in rushing. Freeman is a legitimate Heisman contender.

 

WR:

Darren Carrington 6'2" 195 (Junior)

Dwayne Stanford 6'5" 205 (Senior)

Charles Nelson 5'8 170 (Junior) **Plays both ways

Devon Allen 6'0" 185 (Junior) *Posted fastest 110 hurdle time in NCAA's this year at 13.4

Kirk Merritt 5'11" 205 (Soph)

Dillon Mitchell 6'1" 190 (Frosh)

 

**The top 4 of this group has been part of the starting 4/5 the last two years and 3 would come back for 2017. Ridiculous to think a National Title appearing group could be so young, yet so productive. If not for some injuries late in the year of 2014 (Allen ACL, Carrington, Suspension) Oregon may have earned their first ever national championship. This group will go as Prukop or one of the other QB's go. There lies the issue with having QB problems. Can't get your stars the ball.

 

TE:

Pharaoh Brown 6'6" 250 (Senior) **Injured in Utah game 2014, missed all 2015. Bolded because he's an impact player

Evan Baylis 6'6" 250 (Senior)

Johnny Mundt 6'4" 245 (Senior)

Cam McCormick 6'5" 230 (Frosh)

 

**This group is ridiculously productive, not necessarily in the receiving game as much as they are great blockers. Brown is the more athletic TE. Baylis is a workhorse and Mundt went off against Tennessee in 2013 catching 3 TD's and 100+ yards. Veteran group that is going to do big things.

 

OL:

Tyrell Crosby 6'5" 310 (Junior)

Jake Pisarcik 6'2" 300 (Junior)

Cameron Hunt 6'4" 295 (Senior)

Doug Brenner 6'2" 305 (Junior)

Evan Voeller 6'5" 295 (Junior)

Zach Okun 6'4" 310 (Frosh)

Samuel Poutasi 6'4" 330 (Frosh)

Jacob Capra 6'5" 300 (Frosh)

 

**Oregon likes to rotate offensive lineman, it will usually consist of 8-10. Incoming freshman class looks really good, but inexperienced obviously. They will get their rotations in, but look for the younger ones to be better as the season goes on. Early on, Oregon will have to rely on the veteran group they have that has been getting lots of playing time for the better part of 2 seasons.

 

 

Will do defense later....if I remember.

[Scratchtown]

Highlights of Oregon's Spring game

 

[Scratchtown]

Defense

 

DL:

Henry Mondeaux 6'5" 280 (Junior)

Jalen Jelks 6'6" 270 (Soph)

Canton Kaumatule 6'7" 295 (Soph)

Austin Maloata 6'1" 305 (Junior)

Rex Manu 6'3" 315 (Soph)

Eddie Heard 6'3" 250 (Junior)

Torrodney Prevot 6'3" 225 (Senior)

 

**All of these guys have played a bunch but switching from a 3-4 two gap scheme to a 4-3 one gap will be a challenge. The last two on this list Heard and Prevot have been OLB's in the old 3-4 so the move to put them down at DE for pass rushers is likely their thinking here.

 

LB:

Jimmy Swain 6'2" 235 (Junior)

Danny Mattingly 6'5" 245 (Junior)

Paris Bostick 6'1 220 (Junior)

Jonah Moi 6'4" 250 (Junior)

Johnny Ragin III 6'3" 225 (Senior)

 

**Oregon rotates a lot of LB. Could see some of the younger guys not listed get significant time but it will be hard to tell considering the scheme change. If I was a betting man. Bostick and Moi will be starters with Swain. Mattingly isn't very athletic and to me, seems more of a liability than a contributor. He took awful angles last year all year long. Exposing this group could be the key to winning a game vs losing.

 

DB:

Tyree Robinson 6'4" 205 (Junior)

Chris Seisay 6'1" 190 (Junior)

Arrion Springs 5'11" 205 (Junior)

Reggie Daniels 6'1" 205 (Senior)

Ugo Amadi 5'10" 185 (Soph)

Ty Griffin 6'0" 200 (Junior)

Juwaan Williams 6'0 195 (Junior)

 

**All 4 starters return on the back end. They have been young for so long but now on the tail end of their careers and while they have been suspect at times, part of that could be contributed to the lack of a pass rush under Pellums schemes the last 2 seasons. Athletic bunch. They haven't been the greatest tackling group. Reilly and Morgan Jr could be the two receivers that have a hay day if Armstrong can put a ball remotely close. Griffin is the darkhorse as he made plays all over during the spring game. He moved over from QB after the 2014 season (Brother to the RB Taj Griffin).

 

 

Special Teams:

 

They bring back all starters for LS, P, K...

 

Hope this helps give an idea of what they have. It's beyond a simple breakdown but I didn't want to spend more than 30 minutes each side of the ball.

[hskrfan4life]

Thank you coach for these breakdowns!!!

[Saunders]

Added the CFN prediction.

[Saunders]

Phil Steele's preview added.

[husker98]

That's some pretty in depth stuff power't, I found the bit about their LB's interesting. I will be watching that come game time. Thanks for the break down!

[Mavric]

You might say that in college football, 2016 is the year of the running back.

Think about the big names: Leonard Fournette at LSU, Christian McCaffrey at Stanford, Dalvin Cook at Florida State, Nick Chubb at Georgia, Elijah Hood at North Carolina, and Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon at Oklahoma.

That's just to name a few.

Don't forget Royce Freeman at Oregon.

I can almost guarantee the 5-foot-11, 230-pound junior is on the minds of Mike Riley and Mark Banker.

 

LJS