SBNation: Picking college football's conference dark horses for 2016

[Saunders]

Big Ten

 

The favorites: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State

 

Sticking the Spartans here may seem like a stretch, but they're the defending champions. In light of the way Mark Dantonio has rebuilt that program in his grimacing image, I choose to wait before throwing dirt.

 

The dark horse: Nebraska

The Huskers jettisoned Bo Pelini, who couldn't get them over the nine-win hump, and dropped to 5-7 in Mike Riley's first year, needing a waiver to play in a bowl. But when you dig a little, there's reason to believe we could see a big bounce.

 

Why them?

The Huskers' numbers weren't as bad as their record would indicate. They finished only one spot behind Iowa in S&P+, and the Hawkeyes nearly won the Big Ten. Nebraska returns 15 starters, including basically every skill position. They must deal with turnover up front, which could hurt a line that gave up only 14 sacks last season.

 

Part of the reason for that low number is quarterback Tommy Armstrong, who isn't one to sit back in the pocket. Armstrong has always been better with his legs than his arm, but his completion percentage has crept up every year. Considering Riley's record of productive quarterbacks at Oregon State, it's reasonable to think 2016 will be Armstrong's best yet.

 

Also, a defense that only lost three of its top 14 tacklers could be less prone to shaky second halves.

 

How's the schedule?

The Huskers' only difficult Big Ten East game is at Ohio State. Inside the Big Ten West, Wisconsin is a heavyweight, but the Badgers have a brutal schedule for once and are facing major roster turnover. Iowa seems primed to regress back toward Earth. Northwestern went 10-3, but only returns five starters from an outstanding defense.

 

The Huskers would probably get creamed in the Big Ten Championship, but when you're looking for an unexpected winner, you need some unlikely things to happen.

 

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/6/29/11890150/ncaa-football-conference-favorites-2016

 

 

[Kiyoat Husker]

 

The Huskers' only difficult Big Ten East game is at Ohio State. Inside the Big Ten West, Wisconsin is a heavyweight, but the Badgers have a brutal schedule for once and are facing major roster turnover. Iowa seems primed to regress back toward Earth. Northwestern went 10-3, but only returns five starters from an outstanding defense.

Agree with this, and nice to see at least one publication having us beat Iowa. I believe Iowa is at worst a toss-up game. I'm not backing this up with data. Just a feeling, after watching both teams over the last several years. Iowa rarely over-achieves two seasons in a row.

[NUance]

The Huskers would probably get creamed in the Big Ten Championship, but when you're looking for an unexpected winner, you need some unlikely things to happen.

 

 

I'm not sure you can say that about the underdog in the B10 CCG. Over the past few years the underdog has won more often than not. Not sure why that is. Maybe the favorites start looking past the Indy game towards their bowl? :

[Enhance]

 

The Huskers would probably get creamed in the Big Ten Championship, but when you're looking for an unexpected winner, you need some unlikely things to happen.

 

 

I'm not sure you can say that about the underdog in the B10 CCG. Over the past few years the underdog has won more often than not. Not sure why that is. Maybe the favorites start looking past the Indy game towards their bowl? :

Not to mention, the only teams that I believe have a clear talent advantage are tOSU and Michigan, and of those two, tOSU is the only one I think could win handily. Michigan has improved but they don't strike me as a dominant team. Same with MSU.

[TGHusker]

I think it still revolves around Tommie - If Terrific Tommie shows up we can win it, If Turnover Tommie shows up - we will come up well short.

[FrankWheeler]

I think it still revolves around Tommie - If Terrific Tommie shows up we can win it, If Turnover Tommie shows up - we will come up well short.

 

And what about Tommy?