Overachieving and Underachieving Coaches & Seasons

[Mavric]

First, some background:

 

There are exponents available for turning college football points into a Pythagorean win percentage, but I'm more interested in another concept: second-order wins. That basically takes the same idea but uses advanced stats of some sort to determine not simply what you did score and allow, but what you should have scored and allowed.

My new ratings are based on margins in categories related to my Five Factors: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, turnovers/luck. As I flesh the system out with previous years of data, I'm able to basically use these margins to determine both what was your most likely scoring margin in a given game and, based on the plays that took place, your likelihood of winning a given game.

To further explain the second part of that last sentence, it basically says "If you took all the plays in this game, tossed them up in the air, and had them land in a random order, you'd win this game XX% of the time." It is a single-game win likelihood concept, and with it, we can look at wins and losses not as zeroes and ones, but as percentages. And if you're winning a lot of "You'd have won this game 60 percent of the time" games, you're probably getting a little bit lucky. And as with everything else, that luck is likely to change over time.

 

SB Nation

 

Top Overachieving Coaches (min. 4 seasons since 2005):

 

18 - Frank Solich - +0.56 wins per year

22 - Bo Pelini - +0.51 wins per year

23 - Turner Gill - +0.50 wins per year

 

Others:

 

Mike Riley - +0.16 wins per year

[Mavric]

Biggest Overachieving Seasons:

 

#36 - 2013 Nebraska - +1.9 wins

[cm husker]

Interesting; I need to dig into the methodology a little, because I'm not following it based on the quoted paragraph. Good that we have had a couple of coaches who were among the top 25% of achievers. Need Riley to keep moving up (he appears to be around 50?), as just breaking even on expectations based on current recruiting will not bring the desired championships.

 

Not surprised Coach Niamat is #1. His and half of the staff staying behind at navy really hurt Johnson - shows the importance of assistants.

 

A couple of surprising names toward the top of the list, like Mack brown and les Miles.

[Landlord]

Biggest Overachieving Seasons:

 

#36 - 2013 Nebraska - +1.9 wins

 

 

That 2013 team was.... not good. How they got to 9 wins is pretty amazing, moreso than any other Pelini team imo

 

 

The W-L of our 9 opponents we beat was 47-64, the W-L of our 3 opponents we lost to was 39-14.

[ColoradoHusk]

 

Biggest Overachieving Seasons:

 

#36 - 2013 Nebraska - +1.9 wins

 

 

That 2013 team was.... not good. How they got to 9 wins is pretty amazing, moreso than any other Pelini team imo

 

 

The W-L of our 9 opponents we beat was 47-64, the W-L of our 3 opponents we lost to was 39-14.

 

The team really got hurt with the injury to Martinez. Beck's offense was so geared toward using Martinez, that when he went down, the offense really struggled.

[cm husker]

 

Biggest Overachieving Seasons:

 

#36 - 2013 Nebraska - +1.9 wins

 

 

That 2013 team was.... not good. How they got to 9 wins is pretty amazing, moreso than any other Pelini team imo

 

 

The W-L of our 9 opponents we beat was 47-64, the W-L of our 3 opponents we lost to was 39-14.

 

 

Shear force of will.. an important, and underestimated, quality in an HC. That 2013 year was a tough one with the Martinez injury.

 

It would be interesting to see a chart of the W-L records of opponents over the years; I have to think that's a pretty common spread. I would be willing to pull that together with some assistance (i.e., split up decades or something like that).

[cm husker]

 

 

Biggest Overachieving Seasons:

 

#36 - 2013 Nebraska - +1.9 wins

 

 

That 2013 team was.... not good. How they got to 9 wins is pretty amazing, moreso than any other Pelini team imo

 

 

The W-L of our 9 opponents we beat was 47-64, the W-L of our 3 opponents we lost to was 39-14.

 

The team really got hurt with the injury to Martinez. Beck's offense was so geared toward using Martinez, that when he went down, the offense really struggled.

 

 

Yeah, that was the one injury that couldn't be had. At that point, we were only 2 seasons removed from Watson's pro-style offense, so there were view suitable backups on the roster. Armstrong and RKIII did admirable jobs, but I think TM's injury cost the Huskers at least 2 wins that season.

[Landlord]

 

 

Biggest Overachieving Seasons:

 

#36 - 2013 Nebraska - +1.9 wins

 

 

That 2013 team was.... not good. How they got to 9 wins is pretty amazing, moreso than any other Pelini team imo

 

 

The W-L of our 9 opponents we beat was 47-64, the W-L of our 3 opponents we lost to was 39-14.

 

 

Shear force of will.. an important, and underestimated, quality in an HC. That 2013 year was a tough one with the Martinez injury.

 

It would be interesting to see a chart of the W-L records of opponents over the years; I have to think that's a pretty common spread. I would be willing to pull that together with some assistance (i.e., split up decades or something like that).

 

 

 

Here's Bo's just because I'm bored at work.

 

2008

W/L of teams we beat - 49-60

W/L of teams we lost to - 43-12

 

2009

W/L of teams we beat - 57-66

W/L of teams we lost to - 39-14

 

2010

W/L of teams we beat - 61-63

W/L of teams we lost to - 33-19

 

2011

W/L of teams we beat - 60-58

W/L of teams we lost to - 39-14

 

2012

W/L of teams we beat - 62-64

W/L of teams we lost to - 41-13

 

2013

W/L of teams we beat - 47-64

W/L of teams we lost to - 39-14

 

2014

W/L of teams we beat - 50-63

W/L of teams we lost to - 31-9

[Landlord]

Yeah, that was the one injury that couldn't be had. At that point, we were only 2 seasons removed from Watson's pro-style offense, so there were view suitable backups on the roster. Armstrong and RKIII did admirable jobs, but I think TM's injury cost the Huskers at least 2 wins that season.

 

 

 

Still, though, this is the same team that Wyoming took to the final play, and that squandered a 21-3 lead against UCLA (with 41 unanswered points) with a healthy, on fire Martinez.

 

That team definitely had guts, but the only game I think can reliably switch to a W would be Minnesota, which he coincidentally played in, but not while healthy.

[Scratchtown]

I fairly sure that Bo never beat a team that finished the season with less than 4 losses. Except the Oklahoma State team in 2010? I'd look but I don't feel like it.

[Mavric]

I fairly sure that Bo never beat a team that finished the season with less than 4 losses. Except the Oklahoma State team in 2010? I'd look but I don't feel like it.

 

On a quick look, 2011 MSU (11-3), 2010 Okie Lite (11-2), 2010 Missouri (10-3) and 2012 Northwestern (10-3).

[BRV920]

T Msrt was far from healthy in the UCLA game LoMS. Got hurt the week before and was speculation all week that he might not play.

[Scratchtown]

 

I fairly sure that Bo never beat a team that finished the season with less than 4 losses. Except the Oklahoma State team in 2010? I'd look but I don't feel like it.

 

On a quick look, 2011 MSU (11-3), 2010 Okie Lite (11-2), 2010 Missouri (10-3) and 2012 Northwestern (10-3).

 

Thanks. I forgot about 2011 and 2012, and for the Missouri game for some reason I thought they lost 4 games. Thanks for the info Mav!

[Swiv3D]

T Msrt was far from healthy in the UCLA game LoMS. Got hurt the week before and was speculation all week that he might not play.

Agree. He started that game off strong and then when I think the injury started to really nag at him was when we stopped moving the ball and ultimately stopped scoring. He had some nice passes for TD's at the beginning, and then something weird happened that game with the.

 

The Minnesota game was hard to watch. It was painfully obvious that he should not have been in that game. May have been the reason why it didn't heal in time for his physical with the Eagles

[ColoradoHusk]

 

T Msrt was far from healthy in the UCLA game LoMS. Got hurt the week before and was speculation all week that he might not play.

Agree. He started that game off strong and then when I think the injury started to really nag at him was when we stopped moving the ball and ultimately stopped scoring. He had some nice passes for TD's at the beginning, and then something weird happened that game with the.

 

The Minnesota game was hard to watch. It was painfully obvious that he should not have been in that game. May have been the reason why it didn't heal in time for his physical with the Eagles

The Minnesota game was hard to watch because Beck wasn't feeding Ameer all game. Ameer was busting off runs all day, then Beck would try to shoe-horn a Martinez run or pass and the drive would stall out. That game was so frustrating to be in the stands for.