Odds of Playing College Sports

[Mavric]

https://twitter.com/jamesleath/status/745928684738076678

 

[NM11046]

Makes an interesting point ... so if only 6.5% of high school fb players go on to play in college ... only a very small percentage are D1 athletes. And even fewer actually play.

 

Mav I think it was you with all the stats on the Home State Players thread, I'm trying to tie these to that debate, it would certainly put things in perspective ... do we ever know what the states graduating FB class numbers are in total? I wonder if you look at a graduating fb class size in NE and tie that 2.5% does it come close to the number of instate recruits we've had the last few years?

 

I know folks feel we have low figures of in-states and need to step that up, but I'm of the ilk that thinks we need to use the same criteria for instate as we do out of state, and those need to be pretty high fliers.

[Mavric]

This page has participation reports for the last several years.

 

The 2014-15 year is the most recent data available. It shows 9,861 boys participated in 11-man football in Nebraska that year. The totals at the top include less-than-11-man stats but I don't see any by state. There are now 132 schools in Nebraska playing 8- and 6- man football. Guessing that they would average 15 or so players per team. Maybe a couple more. 15 players per team would be 1,980 more players. 20 per would be 2,640. So somewhere right around 12,000 players.

 

I don't have any numbers on kids going to Division II or III but it looks like the average number of kids going Division I from the state has been about 11 over the last few years. So about 0.1%.

[Kiyoat Husker]

Looks like women's hockey is a good niche for getting a scholie. Too bad it is such an expensive sport to play at the club level.

[NUance]

2.5% for D1 football seems high to me.

 

These numbers must be for one particular year, right? (It wouldn't make sense to look at kids in all hs grades playing football and compare them to all the D1 football players. There would be a different number of years being compared from high school to college.) Assuming this is right, out of all 2015 high school seniors there were 1,093,234 of them who played football. This would give us 1,093,234 x 2.5% = 27,331 as the number of frosh who would play D1 football, either scholie or walkon—according to the tweet in the OP.

 

But there are 128 D1 teams. Each team has 85 scholie players and maybe 25 walkons. So the total number of D1 players is about 128 x 110 = 14,800. And this is for all grades in college. Apparently I'm looking at something wrong. It just doesn't jive. :

[Mavric]

2.5% for D1 football seems high to me.

 

These numbers must be for one particular year, right? (It wouldn't make sense to look at kids in all hs grades playing football and compare them to all the D1 football players. There would be a different number of years being compared from high school to college.) Assuming this is right, out of all 2015 high school seniors there were 1,093,234 of them who played football. This would give us 1,093,234 x 2.5% = 27,331 as the number of frosh who would play D1 football, either scholie or walkon—according to the tweet in the OP.

 

But there are 128 D1 teams. Each team has 85 scholie players and maybe 25 walkons. So the total number of D1 players is about 128 x 110 = 14,800. And this is for all grades in college. Apparently I'm looking at something wrong. It just doesn't jive. :

Your numbers would only be for FBS. I'm not sure how many FCS schools there are but they are still technically D1.

 

But you do bring up a good point. I'd have to do some more reading to see what numbers they are looking at.

[NUance]

 

2.5% for D1 football seems high to me.

 

These numbers must be for one particular year, right? (It wouldn't make sense to look at kids in all hs grades playing football and compare them to all the D1 football players. There would be a different number of years being compared from high school to college.) Assuming this is right, out of all 2015 high school seniors there were 1,093,234 of them who played football. This would give us 1,093,234 x 2.5% = 27,331 as the number of frosh who would play D1 football, either scholie or walkon—according to the tweet in the OP.

 

But there are 128 D1 teams. Each team has 85 scholie players and maybe 25 walkons. So the total number of D1 players is about 128 x 110 = 14,800. And this is for all grades in college. Apparently I'm looking at something wrong. It just doesn't jive. :

Your numbers would only be for FBS. I'm not sure how many FCS schools there are but they are still technically D1.

 

But you do bring up a good point. I'd have to do some more reading to see what numbers they are looking at.

 

 

Okay, if that includes FCS then maybe that's it. There could be a lot more FCS schools than FBS.

[Mavric]

 

 

2.5% for D1 football seems high to me.

 

These numbers must be for one particular year, right? (It wouldn't make sense to look at kids in all hs grades playing football and compare them to all the D1 football players. There would be a different number of years being compared from high school to college.) Assuming this is right, out of all 2015 high school seniors there were 1,093,234 of them who played football. This would give us 1,093,234 x 2.5% = 27,331 as the number of frosh who would play D1 football, either scholie or walkon—according to the tweet in the OP.

 

But there are 128 D1 teams. Each team has 85 scholie players and maybe 25 walkons. So the total number of D1 players is about 128 x 110 = 14,800. And this is for all grades in college. Apparently I'm looking at something wrong. It just doesn't jive. :

Your numbers would only be for FBS. I'm not sure how many FCS schools there are but they are still technically D1.

 

But you do bring up a good point. I'd have to do some more reading to see what numbers they are looking at.

 

 

Okay, if that includes FCS then maybe that's it. There could be a lot more FCS schools than FBS.

 

 

Looks like there are currently 125.

 

So that would seem to be correct numbers. The number of HS participants would include all four classes. And if you roughly double your numbers that would be pretty much what would be playing D1 - again including all four/five years.