Sports Analytics in Huskerland - ESPN article

[grandpasknee]

Interesting article about a one year old department at DONU athtletics.

 

Having taken the whole course of advanced mathematics and physics, I love the notion of using advanced analytics in the sports realms. A lot of professional teams are turning more and more to the practice as well.

 

I like that Zeleny understands the job of providing analytic data is in no way meant to replace coaches, but to perhaps give them a slight edge here or there.

 

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/17836319/nebraska-perfect-start-role-analytics

[RedDenver]

Interesting article about a one year old department at DONU athtletics.

 

Having taken the whole course of advanced mathematics and physics, I love the notion of using advanced analytics in the sports realms. A lot of professional teams are turning more and more to the practice as well.

 

I like that Zeleny understands the job of providing analytic data is in no way meant to replace coaches, but to perhaps give them a slight edge here or there.

 

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/17836319/nebraska-perfect-start-role-analytics

I've been wondering if the number of times Riley has gone for it on 4th down is a result of the analytics dept.

[RunMickeyRun02]

 

Interesting article about a one year old department at DONU athtletics.

 

Having taken the whole course of advanced mathematics and physics, I love the notion of using advanced analytics in the sports realms. A lot of professional teams are turning more and more to the practice as well.

 

I like that Zeleny understands the job of providing analytic data is in no way meant to replace coaches, but to perhaps give them a slight edge here or there.

 

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/17836319/nebraska-perfect-start-role-analytics

I've been wondering if the number of times Riley has gone for it on 4th down is a result of the analytics dept.

 

I knew about the analytics thing and noticed the going for it obviously but hadn't put the two together until your post. Makes perfect sense.

 

It's nice to see someone actually run the QB sneak and I'm even more glad it's us. I keep waiting for it bite us in the *** too one of these times.

 

So many teams operate from the gun or pistol it's become a lost art.

[Mavric]

 

Interesting article about a one year old department at DONU athtletics.

 

Having taken the whole course of advanced mathematics and physics, I love the notion of using advanced analytics in the sports realms. A lot of professional teams are turning more and more to the practice as well.

 

I like that Zeleny understands the job of providing analytic data is in no way meant to replace coaches, but to perhaps give them a slight edge here or there.

 

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/17836319/nebraska-perfect-start-role-analytics

I've been wondering if the number of times Riley has gone for it on 4th down is a result of the analytics dept.

 

 

I doubt it. We're #86 in the country in 4th Down Attempts. Barely over once per game. I would guess the analytics would say to go for it more.

[RedDenver]

 

 

Interesting article about a one year old department at DONU athtletics.

 

Having taken the whole course of advanced mathematics and physics, I love the notion of using advanced analytics in the sports realms. A lot of professional teams are turning more and more to the practice as well.

 

I like that Zeleny understands the job of providing analytic data is in no way meant to replace coaches, but to perhaps give them a slight edge here or there.

 

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/17836319/nebraska-perfect-start-role-analytics

I've been wondering if the number of times Riley has gone for it on 4th down is a result of the analytics dept.

 

I doubt it. We're #86 in the country in 4th Down Attempts. Barely over once per game. I would guess the analytics would say to go for it more.

 

I'm surprised that so many other teams have gone for it more than us. I agree that teams should go for it far more often, as you say, the analytics support it.

[Nebfanatic]

 

 

 

Interesting article about a one year old department at DONU athtletics.

 

Having taken the whole course of advanced mathematics and physics, I love the notion of using advanced analytics in the sports realms. A lot of professional teams are turning more and more to the practice as well.

 

I like that Zeleny understands the job of providing analytic data is in no way meant to replace coaches, but to perhaps give them a slight edge here or there.

 

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/17836319/nebraska-perfect-start-role-analytics

I've been wondering if the number of times Riley has gone for it on 4th down is a result of the analytics dept.

I doubt it. We're #86 in the country in 4th Down Attempts. Barely over once per game. I would guess the analytics would say to go for it more.

maybe we don't get into the ideal 4th down situations enough?

[jsneb83]

 

 

Interesting article about a one year old department at DONU athtletics.

 

Having taken the whole course of advanced mathematics and physics, I love the notion of using advanced analytics in the sports realms. A lot of professional teams are turning more and more to the practice as well.

 

I like that Zeleny understands the job of providing analytic data is in no way meant to replace coaches, but to perhaps give them a slight edge here or there.

 

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/17836319/nebraska-perfect-start-role-analytics

I've been wondering if the number of times Riley has gone for it on 4th down is a result of the analytics dept.

 

 

I doubt it. We're #86 in the country in 4th Down Attempts. Barely over once per game. I would guess the analytics would say to go for it more.

 

I would say that this is in part because we are 7-0 and have usually been ahead in the 4th. Most of our 4th down attempts have just been during the course of the game when it's 4th and <1

[Mavric]

 

 

 

Interesting article about a one year old department at DONU athtletics.

 

Having taken the whole course of advanced mathematics and physics, I love the notion of using advanced analytics in the sports realms. A lot of professional teams are turning more and more to the practice as well.

 

I like that Zeleny understands the job of providing analytic data is in no way meant to replace coaches, but to perhaps give them a slight edge here or there.

 

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/17836319/nebraska-perfect-start-role-analytics

I've been wondering if the number of times Riley has gone for it on 4th down is a result of the analytics dept.

 

 

I doubt it. We're #86 in the country in 4th Down Attempts. Barely over once per game. I would guess the analytics would say to go for it more.

 

I would say that this is in part because we are 7-0 and have usually been ahead in the 4th. Most of our 4th down attempts have just been during the course of the game when it's 4th and <1

 

 

That would assume that most teams would only be going for it in the fourth quarter. But analytics would say you should be going for it more all game.

 

I'd say it's more of a mind-set. Teams that are near the top are just generally more aggressive: Houston, Washington State, Baylor, Oregon, etc. Teams that are toward the bottom of the list are generally more conservative: Nebraska, Alabama, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Stanford, etc.

[jsneb83]

 

 

 

 

Interesting article about a one year old department at DONU athtletics.

 

Having taken the whole course of advanced mathematics and physics, I love the notion of using advanced analytics in the sports realms. A lot of professional teams are turning more and more to the practice as well.

 

I like that Zeleny understands the job of providing analytic data is in no way meant to replace coaches, but to perhaps give them a slight edge here or there.

 

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/17836319/nebraska-perfect-start-role-analytics

I've been wondering if the number of times Riley has gone for it on 4th down is a result of the analytics dept.

 

 

I doubt it. We're #86 in the country in 4th Down Attempts. Barely over once per game. I would guess the analytics would say to go for it more.

 

I would say that this is in part because we are 7-0 and have usually been ahead in the 4th. Most of our 4th down attempts have just been during the course of the game when it's 4th and <1

 

 

That would assume that most teams would only be going for it in the fourth quarter. But analytics would say you should be going for it more all game.

 

I'd say it's more of a mind-set. Teams that are near the top are just generally more aggressive: Houston, Washington State, Baylor, Oregon, etc. Teams that are toward the bottom of the list are generally more conservative: Nebraska, Alabama, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Stanford, etc.

 

While that may be true, if you look at where the AP Top 25 rank in 4th down attempts and opponent 4th down attempts (Note: the lower the ranking in 4th down attempts, the fewer number of attempts; the lower the ranking in opponent 4th down attempts, the higher number of attempts faced):

 

Team | 4th down attempts | Opp. 4th down attempts

1. Alabama | 86th | 61st

2. Michigan | 61st | 77th

3. Clemson | 61st | 77th

4. Washington | 122nd | 128th

5. Louisville | 122nd | 34th

6. Ohio State | 30th | 55th

7. Nebraska | 86th | 114th

8. Baylor |16th | 22nd

9. Texas A&M | 72nd | 77th

10. West Virginia | 112th | 22nd

11. Wisconsin | 102nd | 22nd

12. Florida State |127th | 14th

13. Boise State | 112th | 126th

14. Florida | 102nd | 22nd

15. Auburn | 37th | 92nd

16. Oklahoma | 112th | 55th

17. Utah | 30th | 22nd

18. Tennessee | 112th | 34th

19. LSU | 127th | 61st

20. Western Michigan | 37th | 55th

21. North Carolina | 61st | 108th

22. Navy | 48th | 114th

23. Colorado | 72nd | 46th

24. Penn State | 61st | 77th

25. Virginia Tech | 102nd | 108th

 

So while there are a few exceptions, the majority of the top 25 are ranked in the bottom half in 4th down attempts, and face more 4th down attempts on defense than they attempt on offense

[Mavric]

Nice data. +1

 

But that's still going on the assumption that teams are only going for it on fourth down when they're behind late. I have no idea no idea if that is tracked anywhere but it would be interesting to see. It could also be that those teams are generally better and don't have to gamble as much while the teams they are playing feel like they have nothing to lose or have to take more chances. Kind of like Purdue throwing a halfback pass on the first play and faking a punt. They weren't really "forced" to do either of those based on game situation. They just thought they had to do something out of the ordinary to get an edge on a better team.

 

The original question was are we going for it on fourth down because of any analytic data we may have access to. The data would say that teams should go for it on fourth down more than they do and - I would think - the bigger talent gap between you and your opponent the better chance you'd have to convert. Yet we are on the bottom end of attempts. So I don't think there is anything that indicates we are using analytics to gauge when to go for it on fourth down.

[jsneb83]

Nice data. +1

 

But that's still going on the assumption that teams are only going for it on fourth down when they're behind late. I have no idea no idea if that is tracked anywhere but it would be interesting to see. It could also be that those teams are generally better and don't have to gamble as much while the teams they are playing feel like they have nothing to lose or have to take more chances. Kind of like Purdue throwing a halfback pass on the first play and faking a punt. They weren't really "forced" to do either of those based on game situation. They just thought they had to do something out of the ordinary to get an edge on a better team.

 

The original question was are we going for it on fourth down because of any analytic data we may have access to. The data would say that teams should go for it on fourth down more than they do and - I would think - the bigger talent gap between you and your opponent the better chance you'd have to convert. Yet we are on the bottom end of attempts. So I don't think there is anything that indicates we are using analytics to gauge when to go for it on fourth down.

Yes, I agree with that teams with nothing to lose and are not as talented tend to be more aggressive in calling trick plays and going for it on 4th down. But unless there is analytical data or you have someone who watches every game or reads every play-by-play summary to know when these 4th down attempts happen, all we really have to go off of is the total number.

 

Personally, I think that when we are going for it, it is more that the coaches have confidence in the offense to get the first down than if they are seeing what the data says we should do. The data that is there for the coaches may give them more information, but I am not necessarily sure how much it really affects any in-game decisions that the coaches make.