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Trump's America


zoogs

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I'm not arguing the purpose of automation. I'm simply pointing out that I don't think many people have an appreciation for the economics of it or the scope of bodies still required for manufacture things.

 

I'm also trying to point out (through my scatter brain previous posts) that we need education to make an intelligent, flexible, and capable work force. Educated people have more opportunities than those who who aren't.

 

I don't think I've seen any evidence that people don't appreciate that manpower is and still be required. But as I said in my previous post, the goal of machines is to reduce the need for manpower.

 

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU04000000?years_option=all_years&periods_option=specific_periods&periods=Annual+Data

Just "eyeballing" the trend from 1947 to now is about 3% to 6%, so almost double...

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Moiraine said: I don't think I've seen any evidence that people don't appreciate that manpower is and still be required. But as I said in my previous post, the goal of machines is to reduce the need for manpower.

 

Using machines to reduce the need for manpower...that's the antiquated, mid 20th century, view.

 

We now, in 2017 America (and the 21st century) are now talking about how not only will robots "reduce the need for manpower" but they are more than likely going to take 85% of ALL jobs away, entirely.

 

Let's see...I'm a rich, white male, republican, conservative, pseudo-Christian, business owner...

 

I can either pay 5 full time employees, give them health insurance, PTO, vision, etc...which will equate to probably 500K minimum...

 

Or...

 

I can spend 10,000 dollars, buy two robots, who never need time off, never need to be paid, will never ask for time off, don't need health insurance, and will work 24 hours a day non-stop.

 

Hmmmm...which option should I take???

 

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Moiraine said: I don't think I've seen any evidence that people don't appreciate that manpower is and still be required. But as I said in my previous post, the goal of machines is to reduce the need for manpower.

 

Using machines to reduce the need for manpower...that's the antiquated, mid 20th century, view.

 

We now, in 2017 America (and the 21st century) are now talking about how not only will robots "reduce the need for manpower" but they are more than likely going to take 85% of ALL jobs away, entirely.

 

Let's see...I'm a rich, white male, republican, conservative, pseudo-Christian, business owner...

 

I can either pay 5 full time employees, give them health insurance, PTO, vision, etc...which will equate to probably 500K minimum...

 

Or...

 

I can spend 10,000 dollars, buy two robots, who never need time off, never need to be paid, will never ask for time off, don't need health insurance, and will work 24 hours a day non-stop.

 

Hmmmm...which option should I take???

 

A "democrat, black, atheist, liberal, female" business owner would make the same choice...

 

 

Ooops, I should let you know: democrats own businesses too. Some really big ones, btw...

 

edit: p.s...it's not necessarily a bad choice...

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That right there is the lack of economoc insight I'm talking about. 10k isn't going to fully replace a human's job, and there is still going to be maintenance and reprogramming on that robot.

 

 

You haven't replied to my post asking how often robots/automation don't reduce the number of hours worked by humans.

 

You can argue details all you want - we all know humans are still necessary, but robots/automation decrease the manpower needed and will continue to decrease it.

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That right there is the lack of economoc insight I'm talking about. 10k isn't going to fully replace a human's job, and there is still going to be maintenance and reprogramming on that robot.

You're missing two major points here:

1) How many workers can be displaced before the economy collapses?

Even if automation only cuts 30% of jobs that would leave us with Great Depression era levels of unemployment.

 

2) What happens when AI can do the reprogramming and another robot does the maintenance?

This might seem sci-fi and off in the distant future, but tech companies are already working on AI using machine learning to do programming.

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That right there is the lack of economoc insight I'm talking about. 10k isn't going to fully replace a human's job, and there is still going to be maintenance and reprogramming on that robot.

 

The point is not the 10,000 ....

 

The point is, 10,000...compared to a human employee who will cost 20,000 to 50,000, to do the same job.

 

This world, the American (and world) economy is built on consumerism.

 

What the hell is going to happen to the economy when 85% of the workers are unemployed and can't find work because robots/automation have taken all the jobs?

 

What the hell happens to a consumer driven economy when 85% of the consumers can't afford (because they're not working) the goods offered?

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That right there is the lack of economoc insight I'm talking about. 10k isn't going to fully replace a human's job, and there is still going to be maintenance and reprogramming on that robot.

You haven't replied to my post asking how often robots/automation don't reduce the number of hours worked by humans.

You can argue details all you want - we all know humans are still necessary, but robots/automation decrease the manpower needed and will continue to decrease it.

I've already told you that's not even what I'm discussing so let it go. But since you need to here it, probably never has automation increases the number of line workers.
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That right there is the lack of economoc insight I'm talking about. 10k isn't going to fully replace a human's job, and there is still going to be maintenance and reprogramming on that robot.

You haven't replied to my post asking how often robots/automation don't reduce the number of hours worked by humans.

You can argue details all you want - we all know humans are still necessary, but robots/automation decrease the manpower needed and will continue to decrease it.

I've already told you that's not even what I'm discussing so let it go. But since you need to here it, probably never has automation increases the number of line workers.

That's exactly what this discussion is about. The future lack of jobs due to robots and automation. That's what everyone else you've replied to has been discussing this entire time.

 

You've been talking this whole time about how with robots and automation we then need people to design and maintain this stuff, which everyone is in agreement on. What else are you talking about if not that?

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That right there is the lack of economoc insight I'm talking about. 10k isn't going to fully replace a human's job, and there is still going to be maintenance and reprogramming on that robot.

 

You're missing two major points here:

1) How many workers can be displaced before the economy collapses?

Even if automation only cuts 30% of jobs that would leave us with Great Depression era levels of unemployment.

 

2) What happens when AI can do the reprogramming and another robot does the maintenance?

This might seem sci-fi and off in the distant future, but tech companies are already working on AI using machine learning to do programming.

1) that's why I'm arguing for a highly educated working class. From blue collar to white collar and everywhere in between. I'm a firm believea that an educated country is the solution to our future problems.

 

2) Thats amazing and will be an awesome achievement, but all this still has to scale. Material isn't free or even cheap.

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That right there is the lack of economoc insight I'm talking about. 10k isn't going to fully replace a human's job, and there is still going to be maintenance and reprogramming on that robot.

You haven't replied to my post asking how often robots/automation don't reduce the number of hours worked by humans.

You can argue details all you want - we all know humans are still necessary, but robots/automation decrease the manpower needed and will continue to decrease it.

I've already told you that's not even what I'm discussing so let it go. But since you need to here it, probably never has automation increases the number of line workers.

That's exactly what this discussion is about. The future lack of jobs due to robots and automation. That's what everyone else you've replied to has been discussing this entire time.

You've been talking this whole time about how with robots and automation we then need people to design and maintain this stuff, which everyone is in agreement on. What else are you talking about if not that?

I'm trying to give you an appreciation for the monetary cost associated with automation. We throw the term around like it cost a buck when in reality it's a very large chunck of change. It's hard to have an appreciation for that unless you work in the industry. Yes, more jobs will be lost in the future to automationn but there are still plenty of jobs, and a lot of time to get people an education so they can look elsewhere for employment. This isn't some dystopian world where everyone is going to be unemployed next year. We have some time to position ourselves, if we still believe in education.
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People. Automation is not going away. Wake the f#*k up.

 

 

It isn't the evil here. It's either automate or not have jobs.

 

Do you really think that a company in the US can compete paying $20 per hour with no automation against a country paying $5 prr hour with automation?

 

Seriously????

 

When the hell are some people going to wake up?

I don't follow, what are you responding to?

Pardon me if I took some people's post wrong. I had a few drinks last night for my birthday. :)

 

But, reading posts like from chimi leave me believing that people think business managers and owners who automate are some how evil.

 

Automation does more than just replaces people. It's many times more accurate and fewer mistakes.

 

Take a machine shop I was in recently. This place had metal machining equipment that would create custom steal parts 18 feet diameter with accuracy down to .001 of an inch.

 

That is extremely (almost impossible) For a human to do consistently.

 

Automation is allowing new and better products to be developed. That alone creates more jobs.

 

My comment on pay is about workers in the us demanding higher wages. Which they should and I don't have a problem with. So, let's say we pay $20 per hour and China pays $5 per hour. Along with that, china is automated and the US isn't so the us is using more $20 per hour workers than china is using $5 per hour workers.

 

What products do you think you will see flying off the shelves at your local Walmart?

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