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Dems Rebuild


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2 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

I'm pleased that Trumpism isn't winning.

 

But, these wins have been in areas where the Dems typically do OK.  The big test will be if they can win some elections in the middle of the country and more rural areas.  Looking at the Virginia map, it's clear that Dems won the urban areas and Repubs won the rural areas.  That divide is still very clear in America.

 

Fair enough, but the VA House is gerrymandered to hell, so for them to tie it is a rather big accomplishment. They don't typically do that well in such a rigged House map, so I was pretty happy to see that.

 

I agree. They'll need to play better in rural areas for lower office and in the Midwest. There's still a strong cultural identification with Trumpism for many in these parts that will be a tough obstacle. But they seem to have gotten the message that they need to run people in all those places to win.

 

I agree with what Red said. Northam's win was within the expected range, even though he outperformed all polls by a good margin except Quinnipiac. The president's party usually uses seats in off years. But Dem voters are also notoriously lazy in off years as well. I'm really excited to see them mobilize.

 

I do think this is still a strong repudiation of Trump, though, as well. Gillispie hugged him tightly culturally and lost solidly. Also, this:

 

 

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1 hour ago, QMany said:

 

I don't think you're going to see extreme flips in rural parts of the country. I think you are going to see widespread shift that is going to flip swing districts. 

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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/08/us/politics/virginia-governor-results-analysis.html

 

Comparing the 2017 and 2013 VA Gubernational elections:

  • Northam (D) got 5.9% more of the vote than McAuliffe (D).
  • 368,011 more people voted this year.
  • Northam (D) got 335,152 more votes than McAuliffe (D).
  • Ed Gillispie (R) had almost identical % of votes as Cuccinelli (R), 45.1% and 45.2% respectively.

Those % increases and voter turnout increases are really good signs for Democrats.

 

Great post. Thanks Q.

 

Dems finally mobilized their voters in a way they haven't done in a long time. They fell into some really poor habits with Obama because he was so charismatic that their top-down approach to the party worked - they largely neglected local/state races because Obama's coattails were long enough to pull them along to gain seats. But they got destroyed in off years and those local/state parties suffered.

 

I'm glad to see they're building from the ground up and doing it the right way. This is the only way for them to cut into the urban/rural divide which is becoming an increasing problem in terms of the Congress.

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This is a bad, bad, bad, lazy take.

 

A pretty significant statewide victory for the Democrats is going to translate into a roughly 50/50 legislature -- which, entering last night, was 66-34 R. Virginia is not a 66-34 R state, and it was not for the pass however long, either. And yet...

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2 minutes ago, zoogs said:

This is a bad, bad, bad, lazy take.

 

A pretty significant statewide victory for the Democrats is going to translate into a roughly 50/50 legislature -- which, entering last night, was 66-34 R. Virginia is not a 66-34 R state, and it was not for the pass however long, either. And yet...

 

Literally just posted the same thought over in Gerrymandering thread...

 

Needless to say, you're right. Barro is way off base.

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3 hours ago, Dbqgolfer said:

Probably not popular, but science says, xy=male

                                                                      xx=female

 

Probably not accurate.

 

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2017/01/how-science-helps-us-understand-gender-identity/

https://www.nature.com/news/sex-redefined-1.16943

 

 Scientists that actually study such things have discovered that it really isn't that simple.  many people, perhaps up to 1% or 2% of the human population, have some form of DSD (Disorder of Sex Development) where their anatomy does not match their chromosomes.  There are many things that affect the development of sexual anatomy, and your chromosomes are only one of them.

 

 Also, scientists have discovered through DNA sequencing that most people have a patchwork of genetically distinct cells, some with chromosomes that are either xx or xy.  This can have wide-ranging impacts on your biology.

 

There is a lot more to say on the subject, but at least consider that many scientists no longer think of sex as a simple binary system.  More like a spectrum.

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3 hours ago, Dbqgolfer said:

Probably not popular, but science says, xy=male

                                                                      xx=female

sorry to burst your bubble...but this administration has declared that science is fake news.

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6 hours ago, Dbqgolfer said:

Probably not popular, but science says, xy=male

                                                                      xx=female

 

Did you know that science is a lot more complex than that? I'd be happy to recap all the genetic, genitals, psychological, hormonal, and social factors that play into it. I just lectured on it today. 

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