*Redux CFP analysis and prediction*

[Redux]

Hello everyone and welcome to the thread. In here I am about to break it down for all of you, DJ!? HAHAAAA, just kidding! We like to have fun in here.

But for realzies, here is where we sit currently as far as conference standings go. Only teams with actual shots (IMHO) at winning divisions are listed:

Big Ten East:
Penn State 8-2 (6-1)
Ohio State 9-1 (6-1)
Michigan 9-1 (6-1)

This all comes down to "The Game" on rivalry week, but we all knew that. I expect PSU to handle Rutgers and MSU anyway and finish at 10-2 (8-1) with a tiebreaker over tOSU. 3 Weeks ago I bet $20 on Michigan to beat tOSU, I now expect to lose that $20. Ohio State wins out to finish 11-1 (8-1). PSU Goes to Indy.

Big Ten West:
Wisconsin 8-2 (5-2)
Nebraska 8-2 (5-2)

Nebraska has to win out and I think we do. But obviously we need Wiscy to lose to Minny and I just don't see it happening unfortunately. Wiscy goes to Indy at 10-2.

B1G Title Game: 10-2 Penn State vs 10-2 Wisconsin
Either way here, the Big Ten champ ends the season at 11-2. The more impressive record would be Wiscy, but I'm calling it for PSU.

SEC East:
Florida 7-2 (5-2)

Send em the division trophy, what a dumpster fire that division is. They will finish the year beating Presbytyrian and losing to FSU, 8-3 on the year.

SEC West:
Alabama 10-0 (7-0)

This one is officially decided thanks to Auburn, who could somehow knock off Bama and it still wouldn't hurt them. Bama finishes 12-0.

SEC Title Game: 12-0 Alabama vs 8-3 Florida
This won't even be fun to watch, Bama by a lot to go a perfect 13-0.

Big 12 Standings:
Oklahoma 8-2 (7-0)
Okie St. 8-2 (6-1)
W.Virginia 8-1 (5-1)

These 3 could all win it, but to sum it up quickly: WVU loses to OU but beats @ISU and Baylor. Okie Lite loses @TCU then to OU. OU beating both of the other two, finishes 10-2 and undisputed Big 12 Champion.

Pac 12 North:
Wash.State 8-2 (7-0)
Washington 9-1 (6-1)

This one's all about the Apple Cup. First Washington will rebound against ASU and Wazzu will lose it's first conference game to Colorado, so when the two meet at (7-1) it will be a hell of a game. Since it's on the road, I expect the slightest of advantage for Leach and his squad to pull out the win in a shootout. Washington State wins the North at 9-3 (8-1).

Pac 12 South:
Colorado 8-2 (6-1)
USC 7-3 (6-2)
Utah 8-2 (5-2)

This ones a bit messy. In a nutshell, I expect USC to beat Notre Dame and UCLA to finish 9-3 (7-2). Utah will handle Oregon but lose at Colorado to finish 9-3 (6-3). Colorado wins against Wazzu and Utah to finish 10-2 (8-1) thus making them the South division winner outright.

Pac 12 Title Game: 9-3 Washington State vs 10-2 Colorado
Who would have expected this? I think Leach's offenense proves too much and the Cougars run away with it to seal up their first conference title since '91 I believe, Washington State 10-3.

ACC Coastal:
Louisville 9-1 (7-1)
Clemsom 9-1 (6-1)

Simply put, both these teams win out. Problem for the Ville is their conference games are done. They'll win @Houston and handle Kentucky to finish 11-1. Clemson however holds the head to head over them, so after they win @Wake Forest (clinches division) and beat South Carolina, they will officially win the Coastal and be 11-1 (7-1).

ACC Atlantic:
VaTech 7-3 (5-2)
N.Carolina 7-3 (5-2)

VT will beat ND, UNC will beat Citadel. Then it's whoever beats their rival clinches, VT holds tie breaker. Won't matter though, VT beats UVA and UNC falls to NC st. VaTech wins Atlantic at 9-3 (6-2).

ACC Title Game: 9-3 VaTech vs 11-1 Clemson
VT gives Dabo a game, but Tigers win. Clemson wins the ACC to finish 12-1.

Mouintain West Title Game
11-1 Boise State vs 11-1 San Diego State
Both teams win out before meeting, Aztecs take it to finish 12-1.

MAC Title Game 12-0 Western Michigan vs 8-4 Ohio
Only reason this is mentioned is because WMU wins and finishes a perfect 13-0.

Conference Champs:
SEC- Alabama 13-0
B1G- Penn St 11-2
B12- Oklahoma 10-2
ACC- Clemson 12-1
P12- Wash St. 10-3
MAC- W.Michgan 13-0
MTN- SDSU 12-1

"At Large" Teams:
Ohio State 11-1
Louisville 11-1
Washington 10-2
Michigan 10-2
WestVirginia 10-2
Nebraska 10-2
Wisconsin 10-3
Colorado 10-3

In the end, with this scenario playing out, here is your final top ten and who gets left out:

1-Alabama
2-Clemson
3-Ohio State
4-Louisville (Heisman)
_____________

5-Oklahoma
6-Penn State
7-Western Michigan
8-Washington State
9-San Diego State
10-Washington

So there you have it. 2 Conference champs get in and two 1 loss at large teams beat out the other 3 power 5 champs thanks to chaos and the Big 12 being stupid. The noteworty thing is the ACC gets 2 teams in, while the Big Ten gets a team in that isn't even the champion.

[Guy Chamberlin]

Griping is guaranteed, but simply as a college football spectator, that's not a bad final four.

[Atbone95]

Ohio State will win the national championship if they get in.

[Redux]

Griping is guaranteed, but simply as a college football spectator, that's not a bad final four.

 

Right now, I would say it's the best 4 teams we could hope to get in.

 

As a conference championship requirement kinda guy, it's a little maddening. But when only 2 power 5 champs finish with 0 or 1 loss, this is the finale we can expect.

[MichiganDad3]

Penn State is not 7-0 in the conference. They lost 49-10 to Michigan. If OSU beats Michigan that makes a 3-way tie in the east. The tiebreakers are:

 

1. Head to head
2. Records of the tied teams are compared with each other
3. Records of the tied teams are compared within the division
4. Records of the teams are compared against the next-highest teams within the division
5. Records are compared against all common conference opponents
6. The team ranked highest in the BCS standings after the regular season goes to the league championship game unless it is ranked within one spot of another tied team. In this case, the head-to-head result of the two teams determines the division champion
7. The team with the highest overall win percentage (outside of exempted games)
8. The division champion will be chosen by random draw

[NUance]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WutYAcRGeJw

 

I'm sticking by Larry Culpepper's prediction: Bama, Clemson, Nebraska and LSU. "Nebraska runs that classic passive aggressive offense."

[Moiraine]

Penn State is not 7-0 in the conference. They lost 49-10 to Michigan. If OSU beats Michigan that makes a 3-way tie in the east. The tiebreakers are:

 

• Head to head
• Records of the tied teams are compared with each other
• Records of the tied teams are compared within the division
• Records of the teams are compared against the next-highest teams within the division
• Records are compared against all common conference opponents
• The team ranked highest in the BCS standings after the regular season goes to the league championship game unless it is ranked within one spot of another tied team. In this case, the head-to-head result of the two teams determines the division champion
• The team with the highest overall win percentage (outside of exempted games)
• The division champion will be chosen by random draw

Michigan will have 2 conference losses if they lose to OSU. Ohio State and Penn State will each have one. PSU's first loss was to Pitt.

[MichiganDad3]

 

Penn State is not 7-0 in the conference. They lost 49-10 to Michigan. If OSU beats Michigan that makes a 3-way tie in the east. The tiebreakers are:

 

• Head to head
• Records of the tied teams are compared with each other
• Records of the tied teams are compared within the division
• Records of the teams are compared against the next-highest teams within the division
• Records are compared against all common conference opponents
• The team ranked highest in the BCS standings after the regular season goes to the league championship game unless it is ranked within one spot of another tied team. In this case, the head-to-head result of the two teams determines the division champion
• The team with the highest overall win percentage (outside of exempted games)
• The division champion will be chosen by random draw

Michigan will have 2 conference losses if they lose to OSU. Ohio State and Penn State will each have one. PSU's first loss was to Pitt.

 

You are right. If Michigan beats OSU there in, If OSU beats Michigan PSU in in, assuming no other losses by Michigan of PSU.

[Redux]

Yeah the 7-0 is clearly a typo, not sure why that happened.

[Redux]

 

 

Penn State is not 7-0 in the conference. They lost 49-10 to Michigan. If OSU beats Michigan that makes a 3-way tie in the east. The tiebreakers are:

 

 

• Head to head
• Records of the tied teams are compared with each other
• Records of the tied teams are compared within the division
• Records of the teams are compared against the next-highest teams within the division
• Records are compared against all common conference opponents
• The team ranked highest in the BCS standings after the regular season goes to the league championship game unless it is ranked within one spot of another tied team. In this case, the head-to-head result of the two teams determines the division champion
• The team with the highest overall win percentage (outside of exempted games)
• The division champion will be chosen by random draw

Michigan will have 2 conference losses if they lose to OSU. Ohio State and Penn State will each have one. PSU's first loss was to Pitt.

You are right. If Michigan beats OSU there in, If OSU beats Michigan PSU in in, assuming no other losses by Michigan of PSU.

Basically Penn State has to win out and hope that Ohio State beats Michigan.

 

Michigan has to win out, which includes beating Ohio State.

 

Ohio State has to win out and pray that Rutgers or MSU can muster up a win against PSU.

 

My money is on PSU winning out and tOSU beating UM. Next most likely scenario is Michigan beating tOSU and going to Indy. Ohio Statr needs PSU to lose and it's not happening.

[soup]

Who would have thought at the beginning of the year that Washington State, and Colorado have a legitimate chance to play for the Pac-12 Championship this year. If you say yes, you are lying. ;-)

[Redux]

The saddest part about this scenario? Florida could accidentaly knock off Bama, or Clemson could stumble in the title game and we would have only 1 Conference Champion in the playoff.

[Red_Payne]

Does anyone know how exactly the CFP committee votes & what the criteria is?

All in all, they should be voting in who they believe are the 4 BEST teams in the country; regardless of record, correct? or wrong?

Genuine question, I'm not 100% sure.

 

Also; what are the chances Big 10 gets two teams in the playoff. I can actually see OSU getting in w/o even playing in the CCG; and if Wisc. beats PSU; I think they jump Lou., Wash and/or Mich. and get in. Okla. could steal a spot, though; which would hamper that. Don't see Pac 12 in the picture anymore.

[Sargon]

Nebraska v. Penn State in the CCG!

 

Wouldn't that be a hoot. If TA, Westy and Carter are all healthy I think we'd win. (I want NO part of Mich or OSU in that game however. Sorry. My bravado has limits.)

 

Yeah sure Minny has no shot vs. Wisky right? They have a shot. Could happen. Maybe the refs call 5 holds on Wisky. The will deserve 20 (Sargonmetrics actual infraction predictor)

[Atbone95]

The saddest part about this scenario? Florida could accidentaly knock off Bama, or Clemson could stumble in the title game and we would have only 1 Conference Champion in the playoff.

Bama is in regardless.