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The Republican Utopia


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fwiw...i will be shocked if moore doesn't win.   bama is about as red of a state as you will find.   the only reason it will be close is moore is such  a creepy slimeball that some republicans might not vote for him.

Edited by commando
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6 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

AP is calling the election in favor of Doug Jones.

 

The reporting I've seen says the difference has been increased minority turnouts and decreased Republican turnout.

 

Right now, the write in vote explains the margin of victory. 

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From the 538 live coverage:

Quote

Damning statement from Senate Leadership Fund CEO Steven Law: “This is a brutal reminder that candidate quality matters regardless of where you are running. Not only did Steve Bannon cost us a critical Senate seat in one of the most Republican states in the country, but he also dragged the President of the United States into his fiasco.”

 

Maybe this will be the spur for Republicans to reject Bannon and his ilk.

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Just now, RedDenver said:

Also true. But the turnout by minorities is higher than normal, not sure how much compared to the write in voting.

 

Yeah, it's clearly a perfect storm of events. It's interesting that it took this much going the democrats way to sneak out a win. I don't know if they'll ever have it happen again. 

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1 minute ago, Huskerzoo said:

 

Yeah, it's clearly a perfect storm of events. It's interesting that it took this much going the democrats way to sneak out a win. I don't know if they'll ever have it happen again. 

Also important may be that future Republican slimeball candidates will get ousted by their own party instead of taking the chance that a Democrat could win.

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3 minutes ago, Huskerzoo said:

 

Yeah, it's clearly a perfect storm of events. It's interesting that it took this much going the democrats way to sneak out a win. I don't know if they'll ever have it happen again. 

 

Certainly takes some extraordinary events for Dems to win statewide office in Alabama in this day and age.

 

But look at the extraordinary circumstances:

 

- Donald Trump has the lowest approval rating at this point of any president in history

 

- The GOP approval ratings are in the dumpster with him, with them offering almost no accomplishments beyond failed attempts at "improving" healthcare and an extraordinarily unpopular tax bill

 

- Democrat approval isn't too terribly much better, but their enthusiasm is through the roof and thus far special elections/generic ballots/other factors point to a massive blue wave next year that could flip the House. Tonight made the Senate much more likely than it was before, although it's still an uphill battle.

 

- Roy Moore molested children, among other, varied terrible personal characteristics.

 

I've been anxiously following 538's blog all night. They do a great job of election night coverage. From what they've said throughout the night, @RedDenver is correct. Roy Moore beat his benchmarks slightly in several of his counties (meaning he got a better percentage than he needed relative to Jones), but turnout in those Moore counties was down and turnout in Jones counties (major metropolitan areas & the Black Belt of Alabama) was massive and carried him over the finish line.

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4 minutes ago, zoogs said:

 

Hmmmm, or maybe it's going to be "we should have listened to Trump and gone with Gillespie." 

Trump put his full support behind Moore, so I don't think your scenario is likely (although possible).

Just now, Thanks_Tom RR said:

Ron Moore liked this night much more when it was younger.

Haha!! Well done.

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20 minutes ago, Huskerzoo said:

 

Right now, the write in vote explains the margin of victory. 

How much did Alabama's other Senator, Richard Shelby, end up mattering when he told voters to write-in another Republican instead of voting for Moore or Jones? Looks like the write in will be 1.7% and Jones's margin of victory around 1%, so sane Republicans ended up mattering a LOT.

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