Mavric Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 From a long string of Tweets from CFB MatrixTheir "Coach Effect" is a measure of how many games a CFB team wins compared to the talent of the teams playing. First Matrix rule of QB nfl draftee profiling is "are they graded"? No grade, then skip them and focus on graded guysthen sort them by the CoachEffect metric the team had while he was a starter. You want to focus on the + coacheffect guys because..if you cant elevate your CBF team how in the hell are you doing it a NFL level? RARELY occurs.then look at the school. Avoid guys from elite (top 10) recruiters. They bust nearly 90% of the time (vs ave of approx 67%)The d2 guys do not have #CoachEffect metrics so watch their position in the draft. Top 2 rounds, they are usually a good bet but drafting..a D2 or worse QB after round 3 is just setting money on fire. Good rule is 1st round of no round on d2 QBsi'm not saying if they have high bust odds dont draft them, I'm saying draft them further down the draft because they offer less valueBefore we talk about this draft lets see how these rules apply to last years draftees...Goff: My matrix take - non elite program. 1st round draft. Massive negative coacheffect at Cal. One good yr. Round 2-3Wentz: non elite program. D2. If you are going to draft him, he better have a round 1-2 grade. If rd 1, good odds. I'd take him over GoffLynch: My favorite combo. Non elite program, big coach effect #s at memphis. Elevated team. Top 3 risk to take. high grade with high CECook: Graded rd 2-3. Big CE #s. Elevated team play. Top 3 risk in rounds 1-3 IMO. non elite programHackenberg: NFL graded round 2-4. Massive negative coacheffect at PSU. Value is in rounds 5-7. This has overhype written all over it (Rosen)Prescott: NFL graded round 4-6. Huge CoachEffect at MSU. Non elite school. Carried team. Top 3 risk in rd 1-3.You starting to catch on? Its quite simple. I love simplicity and strongly believe the fewer variables the stronger the correlation. Quote Link to comment
Mavric Posted March 3, 2017 Author Share Posted March 3, 2017 Trubinsky: + non elite team - one year starter Zero CoachEffect Draftnik grade rd 1 My take: Ave failure rate Value is in late 1st to 2nd Kizer: - elite recruiter - massive weisian -8 coacheffect in 2 yrs Draftnik grade rd 1 My value: Rd 4 and later. Highest possible bust risk Mahomes: + non elite program -1 CE in '15 zero in '16 no team 'elevation' Ave bust rate Draftniks: Rd 1-2 Me: Value is in 2nd rd > trubinsky Watson: + non elite recruiter ++++ best CE metric of graded QBs Massive team elevation Draftniks: rd 1-2 Me: Best risk in the draft Peterman: non elite program +1 in ;'15 +1 CE in '16 Draftniks: rd 2-4 Me: My fave sleeper pick and top 3 risk QB picks Kaaya: Should have stayed in non elite program but didnt elevate -2 CE in '15 & zero this year. Draftniks rd 3-4 Me: Ave bust rate rd 4+ Webb: 2 non elite programs never had plus #coacheffect for teams at Cal or TT. Negative for career Draftniks: Rd 3-5 Me: Rd 5-7 value. Late round values Beathard & Liufau Carried their teams way beyond talent big + coacheffect at under talented programs Me: worth 5-7 risk 2018 best risks today IMO: 1. Falk 2. Browning 3. Randolph Rosen is Hack 2.0. Mayfield on elite talent in weak conf. Quote Link to comment
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