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CFB Matrix on Drafting QBs


Mavric

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From a long string of Tweets from CFB Matrix

Their "Coach Effect" is a measure of how many games a CFB team wins compared to the talent of the teams playing.

First Matrix rule of QB nfl draftee profiling is "are they graded"? No grade, then skip them and focus on graded guys

then sort them by the CoachEffect metric the team had while he was a starter. You want to focus on the + coacheffect guys because..

if you cant elevate your CBF team how in the hell are you doing it a NFL level? RARELY occurs.

then look at the school. Avoid guys from elite (top 10) recruiters. They bust nearly 90% of the time (vs ave of approx 67%)

The d2 guys do not have #CoachEffect metrics so watch their position in the draft. Top 2 rounds, they are usually a good bet but drafting..

a D2 or worse QB after round 3 is just setting money on fire. Good rule is 1st round of no round on d2 QBs

i'm not saying if they have high bust odds dont draft them, I'm saying draft them further down the draft because they offer less value

Before we talk about this draft lets see how these rules apply to last years draftees...

Goff: My matrix take - non elite program. 1st round draft. Massive negative coacheffect at Cal. One good yr. Round 2-3

Wentz: non elite program. D2. If you are going to draft him, he better have a round 1-2 grade. If rd 1, good odds. I'd take him over Goff

Lynch: My favorite combo. Non elite program, big coach effect #s at memphis. Elevated team. Top 3 risk to take. high grade with high CE

Cook: Graded rd 2-3. Big CE #s. Elevated team play. Top 3 risk in rounds 1-3 IMO. non elite program

Hackenberg: NFL graded round 2-4. Massive negative coacheffect at PSU. Value is in rounds 5-7. This has overhype written all over it (Rosen)

Prescott: NFL graded round 4-6. Huge CoachEffect at MSU. Non elite school. Carried team. Top 3 risk in rd 1-3.

You starting to catch on? Its quite simple. I love simplicity and strongly believe the fewer variables the stronger the correlation.

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Trubinsky:

+ non elite team

- one year starter

Zero CoachEffect

Draftnik grade rd 1

My take: Ave failure rate

Value is in late 1st to 2nd

 

Kizer:

- elite recruiter

- massive weisian -8 coacheffect in 2 yrs

Draftnik grade rd 1

My value: Rd 4 and later. Highest possible bust risk

 

Mahomes:

+ non elite program

-1 CE in '15 zero in '16 no team 'elevation'

Ave bust rate

Draftniks: Rd 1-2

Me: Value is in 2nd rd > trubinsky

 

Watson:

+ non elite recruiter

++++ best CE metric of graded QBs

Massive team elevation

Draftniks: rd 1-2

Me: Best risk in the draft

 

Peterman:

non elite program

+1 in ;'15 +1 CE in '16

Draftniks: rd 2-4

Me: My fave sleeper pick and top 3 risk QB picks

 

Kaaya: Should have stayed in

non elite program but didnt elevate

-2 CE in '15 & zero this year.

Draftniks rd 3-4

Me: Ave bust rate rd 4+

 

Webb:

2 non elite programs

never had plus #coacheffect for teams at Cal or TT. Negative for career

Draftniks: Rd 3-5

Me: Rd 5-7 value.

 

Late round values

Beathard & Liufau

Carried their teams way beyond talent

big + coacheffect at under talented programs

Me: worth 5-7 risk

 

2018 best risks today IMO:

1. Falk

2. Browning

3. Randolph

 

Rosen is Hack 2.0. Mayfield on elite talent in weak conf.

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