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Will There be War wt N Korea next 4 years


Will there be a War with N. Korea?  

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6 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

This was the plan all along. Develop a weapons system that appears capable of targeting mainland America, demonstrate nuclear capabilities, and suddenly you have leverage in negotiations.

 

If he'd have come to the table without doing that, he has no bargaining power. Now he has the ability to bargain away a holocaust he never intended to use in order to get what he wants.

 

There was never going to be a war with North Korea, at least not one started by the North Koreans.  They'd lose, Kim would be dead, and all of this would have been for nothing. 

 

Now he's going to get what he wants and he'll survive the ordeal.  He may even come out of it a hero to his people if food & supplies start flowing into his country. 

But, do you really think his end game is to actually end the Korean conflict that has been brewing since 1950 and get rid of the DMZ zone?

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Just now, BigRedBuster said:

But, do you really think his end game is to actually end the Korean conflict that has been brewing since 1950 and get rid of the DMZ zone?

 

Yes. What good is it to him? He's a man who enjoys the finer things in life. He's Western educated. He has no need of an ongoing conflict with the South or with America.

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3 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

Yes. What good is it to him? He's a man who enjoys the finer things in life. He's Western educated. He has no need of an ongoing conflict with the South or with America.

So, what exactly is he bargaining for?  Why couldn't he at some point over the last several years simply start talking nice with South Korea, build a relationship that was much better than what his father had and start the normalization of relationships?

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2 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

So, what exactly is he bargaining for?  Why couldn't he at some point over the last several years simply start talking nice with South Korea, build a relationship that was much better than what his father had and start the normalization of relationships?

 

He's bargaining for peace and a normalization of relations. There is no scenario in which a hot war breaks out and he remains in power, so that option is off the table.  His goal is to end the ongoing, wasteful conflicts with his neighbors and get out of it with his hide & his power intact. 

 

To do that, he has to have bargaining power.  The leader of a backwater nation has no leverage over South Korea or the United States, and any negotiation held prior to a year ago would result in disaster for Kim & North Korea. 

 

Now he has a YUUUGE bargaining chip. YUGE.  And he's going to parlay that into getting what he wants. 

 

If Kim's/North Korea's goal was to wage war, they'd just launch strikes. They have the capability now.  But they are not stupid, and they know how that ends.  He cannot use those nukes. China will not reciprocate against America if he launches nukes on us and we nuke them back. So those nukes are not useful in any practical sense. But as a bargaining chip, he can now give up something big to get something big. 

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5 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

So, what exactly is he bargaining for?  Why couldn't he at some point over the last several years simply start talking nice with South Korea, build a relationship that was much better than what his father had and start the normalization of relationships?

 

Step 1: Get nuclear weapon capabilities

 

Step 2: Start negotiations saying you want peace with no nuclear weapons

 

Step 3: Everyone comes to the table with peace within grasps

 

Step 4: Tell America they need to leave the region with military threats and remove their nuclear arsenal as well

 

Step 5: America doesn’t agree to leave region due to security concerns with protectorate with Japan

 

Step 6: Become a nuclear power while blaming America

 

Step 7: ???

 

Step 8: Profit

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2 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

He's bargaining for peace and a normalization of relations. There is no scenario in which a hot war breaks out and he remains in power, so that option is off the table.  His goal is to end the ongoing, wasteful conflicts with his neighbors and get out of it with his hide & his power intact. 

 

To do that, he has to have bargaining power.  The leader of a backwater nation has no leverage over South Korea or the United States, and any negotiation held prior to a year ago would result in disaster for Kim & North Korea. 

 

Now he has a YUUUGE bargaining chip. YUGE.  And he's going to parlay that into getting what he wants. 

 

If Kim's/North Korea's goal was to wage war, they'd just launch strikes. They have the capability now.  But they are not stupid, and they know how that ends.  He cannot use those nukes. China will not reciprocate against America if he launches nukes on us and we nuke them back. So those nukes are not useful in any practical sense. But as a bargaining chip, he can now give up something big to get something big. 

I agree that his goal was not to start a war.  I have thought possibly his goal would be to bait Trump into some type of attack....which, would cement in his population's minds how evil the US is.

 

I guess I still don't get the bargaining power.  If he would have come to power with the military he already had and started talks with South Korea and the US, how would it be a "disaster for Kim and North Korea"???

He would have appeared to be a wonderful change from his father and the South and US would have welcomed him staying in power.

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2 minutes ago, deedsker said:

 

Step 1: Get nuclear weapon capabilities

 

Step 2: Start negotiations saying you want peace with no nuclear weapons

 

Step 3: Everyone comes to the table with peace within grasps

 

Step 4: Tell America they need to leave the region with military threats and remove their nuclear arsenal as well

 

Step 5: America doesn’t agree to leave region due to security concerns with protectorate with Japan

 

Step 6: Become a nuclear power while blaming America

 

Step 7: ???

 

Step 8: Profit

 

Something like that seems more in line with what seems like is going on.  

 

Actually, if he ends the Korean conflict, gets rid of the DMZ and normalizes relationships with the outside world, he then loses power over his people.  THAT is what he really is wanting to keep.  

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14 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

Why not?  

He would have ended the Korean conflict and ended the need for us to keep thousands of troops on a border in Asia.  Why wouldn't we welcome a leader who wanted to normalize relationships and stop threatening our ally?

 

Because that's not been the US position on the Kim family since they claimed power.  Nor has giving up power in a region without being forced to been a tenet of American foreign policy over the past 70 years. 

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12 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

Because that's not been the US position on the Kim family since they claimed power.  Nor has giving up power in a region without being forced to been a tenet of American foreign policy over the past 70 years. 

 

Well, we will see.  It still doesn't make sense to me.  However, many times in foreign negotiations with countries who have been cut off from the world...things don't make sense.  None the less, my idea didn't happen so we are dealing with reality now.

 

I don't trust him to the extent that I believe this is somehow a negotiation ploy to get rid of sanctions.  But, I don't believe he wants to get rid of the DMZ and open up his country to the outside world.  He loses power over his people if that happens.

 

If he DOES get rid of the DMZ and open up his country?  I have a new found respect for the little guy.

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22 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

Well, we will see.  It still doesn't make sense to me.  However, many times in foreign negotiations with countries who have been cut off from the world...things don't make sense.  None the less, my idea didn't happen so we are dealing with reality now.

 

I don't trust him to the extent that I believe this is somehow a negotiation ploy to get rid of sanctions.  But, I don't believe he wants to get rid of the DMZ and open up his country to the outside world.  He loses power over his people if that happens.

 

If he DOES get rid of the DMZ and open up his country?  I have a new found respect for the little guy.

Keep in mind that NK is terribly backwards and the people live in poverty. Kim is probably smart enough to realize that eventually he's going to get removed from power by his own people unless he starts changing things. I'm not sure how much pressure that puts on him, but over enough time the odds of bad things happening to him increase.

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3 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

Keep in mind that NK is terribly backwards and the people live in poverty. Kim is probably smart enough to realize that eventually he's going to get removed from power by his own people unless he starts changing things. I'm not sure how much pressure that puts on him, but over enough time the odds of bad things happening to him increase.

 

And, getting rid of sanctions, allows more food and supplies into the country which improves his people's lives.  They think he's a hero but, they don't realize that their lives could be MUCH better if the country is opened up.  

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1 minute ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

And, getting rid of sanctions, allows more food and supplies into the country which improves his people's lives.  They think he's a hero but, they don't realize that their lives could be MUCH better if the country is opened up.  

But Kim still wants power and comfort/wealth, so by negotiating with nukes, he can force the other side to give him what he wants and still be a hero at home.

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