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Will There be War wt N Korea next 4 years


Will there be a War with N. Korea?  

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Sabers are rattling. We are in a tight spot - we have a loon for a commander in chief but also a real threat to our allies and ultimately the USA. Options: Massive bombing run, surgical strikes, Seal team to take out Fat Boy, negotiation, trusting China to resolve it, ignore and hope it will all just fade away??????

 

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/patrick-goodenough/haley-no-point-another-consequence-free-unsc-meeting-nk-missiles-us

 

A couple of quotes:

 

The United States sees no point in holding an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting Monday on North Korea’s second long-range missile test in 24 days “if it produces nothing of consequence,” U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley said Sunday, after tweeting that the U.S. is “done talking” about the issue.

“North Korea is already subject to numerous Security Council resolutions that they violate with impunity and that are not complied with by all U.N. member states,” she said in a statement, following the test-firing Friday of what appears to have been an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

Another resolution that does not significantly increase pressure on the Kim Jong-un regime would be “of no value,” Haley continued.

“In fact, it is worse than nothing, because it sends the message to the North Korean dictator that the international community is unwilling to seriously challenge him.”

“China must decide whether it is finally willing to take this vital step,” Haley said. “The time for talk is over. The danger the North Korean regime poses to international peace is now clear to all.”

 

On Sunday, two U.S. Air Force B1-B Lancer supersonic bombers flew from Guam to the Korean peninsula, where they were joined by South Korean F-15 fighters and made a low pass over an airbase south of Seoul. The bombers also passed through Japanese airspace where they were joined by Japanese F-2 fighter jets.

U.S. Pacific Command described the 10-hour mission as “part of the continuing demonstration of ironclad U.S. commitment to our allies” in the face of North Korean provocations.

Pacific Air Forces commander Gen. Terrence J. O’Shaughnessy said while diplomacy remains the lead response to the North Korean threat “we have a responsibility to our allies and our nation to showcase our unwavering commitment while planning for the worst-case scenario.”

“If called upon, we are ready to respond with rapid, lethal, and overwhelming force at a time and place of our choosing.”

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The question that keeps going through my mind....Where would we be in all of this if Trump were not President?

Meaning, well before November when he won......was NK well on this path to this point? OR......has Trump raised the level of tensions so much that it's come to this point?

 

It's extremely easy for me to blame Trump and...maybe that's correct. But, NK has been inching towards this for a long time. I'm trying wrap my head around if Trump is making things worse, or is he not really having that big of an affect?

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https://www.vox.com/world/2017/7/30/16064978/trump-china-north-korea-tweets-july

 

Here's a good read, BRB.

 

 

 

“[Moving Beijing] requires a comprehensive and carefully executed strategy that includes specific asks and clear consequences for inaction,” Rosenberger tells me. “Members of Trump's administration have tried to put in place the kind of comprehensive strategy we need, building on the Obama administration's efforts toward the end of his second term, but President Trump and his shoot-from-the-hip twitter statements are undermining that very effort.”

 

I didn't even realize there was this moment in April. A 10-minute conversation with Xi that "rocked Trump's world". Apparently reality to Trump is whatever the last person tells him it is.

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https://www.vox.com/world/2017/7/30/16064978/trump-china-north-korea-tweets-july

 

Here's a good read, BRB.

 

 

 

“[Moving Beijing] requires a comprehensive and carefully executed strategy that includes specific asks and clear consequences for inaction,” Rosenberger tells me. “Members of Trump's administration have tried to put in place the kind of comprehensive strategy we need, building on the Obama administration's efforts toward the end of his second term, but President Trump and his shoot-from-the-hip twitter statements are undermining that very effort.”

 

I didn't even realize there was this moment in April. A 10-minute conversation with Xi that "rocked Trump's world". Apparently reality to Trump is whatever the last person tells him it is.

Pretty amazing section of the article. So in reality, Trump relied on the China leader, our economic rival in the region, for a 10 minute foreign affairs education that brought the realization that like health care - this isn't easy.

Yes, NK is complex - starting wt the indirect sale of tech to NK during the Clinton years, Bush's proclamation of NK being a member of the axis of evil - while it most of his energy was in the Middle East and Obama admin not making

any in roads either.

 

 

After listening for 10 minutes, I realized it’s not so easy,” the president told the Journal. “I felt pretty strongly that they had a tremendous power [over] North Korea. ... But it’s not what you would think.”

Town called Trump’s approach to North Korea “naive” in our correspondence, and this is a perfect example of what she’s talking about. The president claims to have come to a profound realization about one of the most dangerous conflicts on earth after a 10-minute conversation with the leader of North Korea’s chief patron, which also happens to be the United States’ chief rival in East Asia.

In any event, the conversation with Xi seemed to have really shaped the way that the president thought about China’s approach to the North — hence the tweet in June thanking Xi for his efforts. Now he seems to have come back around to his original position yet again, for reasons that are not fully clear.

“It's clear that President Trump does not understand North Korea”

In Trump’s defense, his new/original stance is more accurate than the post-Xi meeting one. China has done a bit to pressure Pyongyang, like ramping up criticism of the North in state-run media outlets, but that hasn’t caused Kim to change course on any major issue (at least, as far as we can tell). Moreover, trade between China and North Korea actually increased in the first quarter of 2017, suggesting Beijing isn’t seriously trying to use economic pressure — by far its biggest stick when it comes to the North.

But by taking so many different positions, and shifting between them so rapidly, the president has undermined whatever ability the United States might have had to actually get the Chinese to ramp up pressure.

 

Related article

https://www.vox.com/world/2017/7/6/15922824/trump-north-korea-icbm-options-bad

 

 

This Vox article give 3 basic options for Trump: Strategic military action, Diplomatic efforts, and Sanctions it then gives a bit of a time line

 

America and others have been trying to come to some sort of diplomatic, negotiated agreement with North Korea over its programs since 1985, according to the Arms Control Association. They got really close twice. In 1994, the US and North Korea signed the Agreed Framework, in which the North agreed to freeze its plutonium weapons program in exchange for two proliferation-resistant nuclear power reactors and fuel oil from the United States.

However, the agreement collapsed in 2002, and by January 2003 the North had resumed its nuclear program.

Then in August 2003, the international community launched the so-called “Six Party Talks,” which were designed to get North Korea to halt its nuclear program through negotiations with five other countries: China, the United States, South Korea, Japan, and Russia.

In September 2005, it looked like the talks might work — North Korea formally agreed to abandon “all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs” in exchange for energy assistance from the other countries.

But in 2009, amid disagreements over technical details related to verification, North Korea walked out on the talks. It says it will never return to the negotiations and maintains that it is no longer bound by their agreements. And it has been ramping up its nuclear and ballistic missile programs ever since

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This is exactly an example of Trumps total inability to be a leader with his twitter account.

 

When I'm trying to formulate a decision or a policy on something, my thoughts on it may very well change quickly from day to day or from talking to various people. BUT.....people around me don't necessarily know that and our customer base doesn't know that because I'm not thinking out loud on Twitter. It's more of an internal thought process.

 

THEN....when I believe I have as much information as I'm going to be able to reasonably have...then I make a decision and make people around me know.

 

The way he does it is clearly to do nothing other than stroke his ego in trying to convince everyone that he is so much smarter than the rest of the world. In reality, it shows how totally clueless the guy is.

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This is exactly an example of Trumps total inability to be a leader with his twitter account.

 

When I'm trying to formulate a decision or a policy on something, my thoughts on it may very well change quickly from day to day or from talking to various people. BUT.....people around me don't necessarily know that and our customer base doesn't know that because I'm not thinking out loud on Twitter. It's more of an internal thought process.

 

THEN....when I believe I have as much information as I'm going to be able to reasonably have...then I make a decision and make people around me know.

 

The way he does it is clearly to do nothing other than stroke his ego in trying to convince everyone that he is so much smarter than the rest of the world. In reality, it shows how totally clueless the guy is.

What you just described is the decision making process of a sane, reasonable, and responsible person.

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This is exactly an example of Trumps total inability to be a leader with his twitter account.

 

When I'm trying to formulate a decision or a policy on something, my thoughts on it may very well change quickly from day to day or from talking to various people. BUT.....people around me don't necessarily know that and our customer base doesn't know that because I'm not thinking out loud on Twitter. It's more of an internal thought process.

 

THEN....when I believe I have as much information as I'm going to be able to reasonably have...then I make a decision and make people around me know.

 

The way he does it is clearly to do nothing other than stroke his ego in trying to convince everyone that he is so much smarter than the rest of the world. In reality, it shows how totally clueless the guy is.

What you just described is the decision making process of a sane, reasonable, and responsible person.

 

BRB for President then!! :o

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I didn't even realize there was this moment in April. A 10-minute conversation with Xi that "rocked Trump's world". Apparently reality to Trump is whatever the last person tells him it is.

 

We've known this for quite some time. I do agree with the thrust of that article, though.

 

Foreign policy as a whole is extremely difficult with Trump at the helm. He cares more about calling all the shots than he does maintaining continuity, building towards an established goal or not overriding the foreign policy officials around him.

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Well, according to Fox News "breaking news" today, we are already at war with NK and they are mere moments away from releasing a barrage of nuclear weapons on us. The urgency and warnings and alerts....oh my.

 

I can't help but think this is how Trump diverts our attention from his sh!tshow of a presidency.

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I can't help but think this is how Trump diverts our attention from his sh!tshow of a presidency.

 

That is exactly what this is.

 

China could put an end to North Korea in an instant. China is a major creditor to America, so much so that if we default on it, China's economy crashes. We have as much leverage over China as anyone, and therefore leverage over North Korea. We don't have to go to war, we don't have to sail aircraft carriers off their coast, we don't have to do anything other than negotiate with China to get this taken care of.

 

The fact that this hasn't been done tells us that it's being allowed to happen because it's expedient. All of this "war with North Korea" is a distraction, it's coming from conservatives/conservative media mouthpieces, and it's entire existence is due to the fact that Trump (and Obama before him, and Bush before him, etc) need distractions.

 

Trump's just a much heavier user of this distraction.

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The scary thing about it is not the threat of anything from NK but rather the sensationalistic "urgent "alert" nature of the Fox News reporting on it. I went over to the local truck stop (they have Fox News on 24-7) to pick up some late breakfast and the typical persons that frequent there are, how shall we say, not the sharpest knives in the drawer. I'm sure 25%+ of them (and that's being conservative) in all likelihood believe war is imminent and that we would be completely justified in wiping NK off the map right now. I know this has been covered as nauseam in multiple threads but Fox News really is out of control. The only real "breaking" news (if it's not completely fake news) is that NK may be a little further down the road with their nuclear missile abilities than we thought they were. But Fox is doing all they can to get anyone and everyone whipped into a frenzy, I'm sure all at the behest of Trump Inc. It just isn't supposed to be this way...

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