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ESPN FPI Not High on Huskers


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#1 Mavric

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Posted 05 April 2017 - 04:09 PM

Nebraska football fans got a cold slap in the face Wednesday when ESPN revealed its first 2017 "Football Power Index."
 
The Huskers are listed 58th among the 130 FBS teams, with a projected win-loss record of 5.5-6.5.
 
ESPN says FPI is a measure of team strength meant to be the best predictor of performance “going forward.’’ Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of various factors in the FPI formula. The ratings and projections change daily.
 
The first FPI projection has Nebraska losing six of its final seven games — the lone victory in that stretch is over Purdue — and posting a 3-6 Big Ten mark.
 
ESPN gives Nebraska a 0.0 chance of winning out or winning the conference.

 
OWH


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#2 Mavric

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Posted 05 April 2017 - 04:09 PM

https://twitter.com/swmckewonOWH/status/849740311681277953

 

https://twitter.com/swmckewonOWH/status/849739738366038024


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#3 GSG5545

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HB Donor Scarlet

Posted 05 April 2017 - 04:17 PM

They just don't know about our secret weapon...


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#4 Husker2019

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Posted 05 April 2017 - 04:33 PM

They just don't know about our secret weapon...

shhhh
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#5 Thanks_Tom RR

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Posted 05 April 2017 - 04:33 PM

They just don't know about our secret weapon...

giphy.gif


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#6 1995 Redux

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HB Donor Bronze

Posted 05 April 2017 - 05:08 PM

They just don't know about our secret weapon...


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#7 HuskermanMike

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Posted 05 April 2017 - 05:13 PM

They just don't know about our secret weapon...

Is it Tanner Lee's new robotic 4.4 forty time legs?

 

 

/s


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#8 grandpasknee

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Posted 05 April 2017 - 08:28 PM

Shoot, I don't even know our secret weapon..how could they????!!!!!  (Um, we do have one right?


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#9 Nebfanatic

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Posted 05 April 2017 - 08:33 PM


They just don't know about our secret weapon...

Is it Tanner Lee's new robotic 4.4 forty time legs?
 
 
/s
lmao that was great. If only it were real.....
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#10 dvdcrr

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Posted 05 April 2017 - 09:19 PM

Nebraska football fans got a cold slap in the face Wednesday when ESPN revealed its first 2017 "Football Power Index."
 
The Huskers are listed 58th among the 130 FBS teams, with a projected win-loss record of 5.5-6.5.
 
ESPN says FPI is a measure of team strength meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of various factors in the FPI formula. The ratings and projections change daily.
 
The first FPI projection has Nebraska losing six of its final seven games the lone victory in that stretch is over Purdue and posting a 3-6 Big Ten mark.
 
ESPN gives Nebraska a 0.0 chance of winning out or winning the conference.

 
OWH
And this surprises anyone????
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#11 TonyStalloni

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Posted 06 April 2017 - 07:48 AM

Fitting because we all know ESPN never liked us.   :sarcasm


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#12 Red Five

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Posted 06 April 2017 - 08:10 AM

 

 

Nebraska football fans got a cold slap in the face Wednesday when ESPN revealed its first 2017 "Football Power Index."
 
The Huskers are listed 58th among the 130 FBS teams, with a projected win-loss record of 5.5-6.5.
 
ESPN says FPI is a measure of team strength meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of various factors in the FPI formula. The ratings and projections change daily.
 
The first FPI projection has Nebraska losing six of its final seven games the lone victory in that stretch is over Purdue and posting a 3-6 Big Ten mark.
 
ESPN gives Nebraska a 0.0 chance of winning out or winning the conference.

 
OWH
And this surprises anyone????

 

 

Yes.  I don't know anyone that thinks the Huskers this year are a 5 or 6 win team.


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#13 VectorVictor

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Posted 06 April 2017 - 10:58 AM

 

They just don't know about our secret weapon...

Is it Tanner Lee's new robotic 4.4 forty time legs?

 

 

/s

 

 

This may or may not be a picture of said rumored Tanner Lee's robotic "magic legs"

 

zxsisg5.jpg

 

Rumor is they're made from a custom-made titanium alloy used on the space shuttle.


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#14 knapplc

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HB Donor Silver

Posted 06 April 2017 - 11:07 AM

What should ESPN know about the Huskers to make them rank us higher? What they think, from a distance, is that we lost all our top skill players, we've fundamentally changed the defense, we've got several new coaches, and a QB who has never been impressive on a major stage. Why should they rank us higher?
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#15 HuskermanMike

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Posted 06 April 2017 - 11:09 AM

Wow the whole entire SEC is in front of us, ESPN bias at its finest. 


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--Bob Devaney, on his days as Nebraska coach.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


#16 teachercd

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Posted 06 April 2017 - 11:10 AM

It is like they don't realize that we have two first round QB's on the roster.


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Gotta love the PPC

#17 Nebfanatic

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Posted 06 April 2017 - 11:38 AM

I understand we don't have alot returning for ESPN to base off of, but in my opinion, 6 wins is built into the schedule. Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota, Ark State and Northern Illinios should be very winnable games. It would take a very poor effort to lose in most of those games save Illinois and Minnesota. Those 2 squads should be pretty decent defensively so put up a fight they will but we should beat both of those teams without a problem. The rest of the schedule will be murkier to predict, but going 0-6 against the rest of our schedule seems unlikely to me.
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#18 RedDenver

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Posted 06 April 2017 - 12:17 PM

How well has ESPN's RPI done at past predictions?
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#19 knapplc

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HB Donor Silver

Posted 06 April 2017 - 12:21 PM

I believe last year they had Penn State 38th, with a less than 5% chance to win the Big Ten.

Predictions, especially any made this early, aren't worth much. They're off-season discussion fodder, something for 24-hour sports networks to get guys shouting about.
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#20 Guy Chamberlin

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Posted 06 April 2017 - 03:07 PM

I can almost guarantee you these are sports nerd algorithms spitting out metrics devoid of personal bias.

 

As William Shatner would say:               they have no idea              what it's like                to be....human!


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#21 NUinID

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Posted 06 April 2017 - 03:17 PM

I can almost guarantee you these are sports nerd algorithms spitting out metrics devoid of personal bias.

 

As William Shatner would say:               they have no idea              what it's like                to be....human!

 

I am sure it is something they paid a lot of money for some metrics guy to come up with, which I am sure has some merrit, but not much.  Sometimes the eyeball test is better.  I will be really disappointed if NU doesn't win at least 8 games next year.  


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#22 Making Chimichangas

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Posted 06 April 2017 - 08:18 PM

 

Nebraska football fans got a cold slap in the face Wednesday when ESPN revealed its first 2017 "Football Power Index."
 
The Huskers are listed 58th among the 130 FBS teams, with a projected win-loss record of 5.5-6.5.
 
ESPN says FPI is a measure of team strength meant to be the best predictor of performance “going forward.’’ Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of various factors in the FPI formula. The ratings and projections change daily.
 
The first FPI projection has Nebraska losing six of its final seven games — the lone victory in that stretch is over Purdue — and posting a 3-6 Big Ten mark.
 
ESPN gives Nebraska a 0.0 chance of winning out or winning the conference.

 
OWH

 

 

Then obviously we should cancel the season, thanks ESPN.

 

:ahhhhhhhh 


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Rebellions are built on hope

 


#23 southernoregonhusker

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Posted 06 April 2017 - 09:05 PM

What should ESPN know about the Huskers to make them rank us higher? What they think, from a distance, is that we lost all our top skill players, we've fundamentally changed the defense, we've got several new coaches, and a QB who has never been impressive on a major stage. Why should they rank us higher?

My thoughts as well.


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#24 dvdcrr

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Posted 06 April 2017 - 09:40 PM


 


They just don't know about our secret weapon...

Is it Tanner Lee's new robotic 4.4 forty time legs?
 
 
/s
 
 
This may or may not be a picture of said rumored Tanner Lee's robotic "magic legs"
 
zxsisg5.jpg
 
Rumor is they're made from a custom-made titanium alloy used on the space shuttle.

Actually the computer did factor this in and that bumped up our chances of winning the Conference from -0.1 to 0.0
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#25 Wisenup

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Posted 07 April 2017 - 04:16 AM


 


They just don't know about our secret weapon...

Is it Tanner Lee's new robotic 4.4 forty time legs?
 Lieutenant Tan , you have magic legs....
 
/s
 
 
This may or may not be a picture of said rumored Tanner Lee's robotic "magic legs"
 
zxsisg5.jpg
 
Rumor is they're made from a custom-made titanium alloy used on the space shuttle.

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#26 lo country

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Posted 07 April 2017 - 05:58 AM

Until we decisively beat teams we should, start beating Iowa and Wisky with regularity and quit getting blown out on national tv, this will be the continued "hype" that NU gets and up to this point, based on previous performance its all we have "earned".

 

Throw in the fact of new DC, pretty much new DC staff, two untested QB's, the vast majority of offensive production lost to graduation, new defensive scheme and its probably a fair assessment as these things, coupled with paragraph 1, on paper, show we could struggle.


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#freetommy_gun4


#27 Vols1891

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Posted 07 April 2017 - 06:24 AM

I think this same algorithm predicted we would go 11-1 last year. I remember all my fellow Vols fans being all hyped up about it.
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#28 MichiganDad3

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Posted 07 April 2017 - 07:37 AM

I don't have high expectations this year. The offense went down the toilet after TA couldn't run. We will have a much better passer this year, but IMO, this will be negated by lack of mobility. The defense should be better because Banker was so bad. Special teams should also be better. Will this improve last year's record? I expect about the same results; we beat the weak teams, struggle with competitive teams, and get blown out by elite teams.


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#29 Nebfanatic

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Posted 07 April 2017 - 08:10 AM

People put soooooo much on QB mobility. It's a nice trait to have but it is far from make or break for our offense
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#30 Hilltop

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Posted 07 April 2017 - 08:26 AM

Looking at the schedule, and trying to remove emotion or bias, I can see why they have this predicted.  I put us a little better with worst case 7-5 and best case 10-2 for regular season.  We have to remember that so many of these numbers generated have Vegas betting behind them.  Then the authors twist the numbers to their benefit to get emotional responses from readers.  The current Vegas number for Nebraska wins in 2017 (over under) is 8.5.  If I were betting, I would have to take under 8.5 this year due to schedule and so many new elements to our team.  8 or more wins, to me, is a success this year- if the development on the field leaves us feeling like the next year will be a step forward.    


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#31 BigRedBuster

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Posted 07 April 2017 - 08:42 AM

Sorry, there is nothing that should point to Nebraska being outside 8-10 wins.  If someone predicts outside those parameters, they would need to have real solid evidence to back it up.  Otherwise they are just pulling predictions out of their ass.


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#32 Nebfanatic

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Posted 07 April 2017 - 08:49 AM

Agree with BRB. This ESPN prediction does not align with Vegas and is honestly just going to be wrong. 6 wins is a possibility but I would say it's one of the more unlikely possibilities
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#33 Mavric

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Posted 07 April 2017 - 09:09 AM

Sorry, there is nothing that should point to Nebraska being outside 8-10 wins.  If someone predicts outside those parameters, they would need to have real solid evidence to back it up.  Otherwise they are just pulling predictions out of their ass.

 

To be fair, the same could have been said in 2015.


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#34 NUinID

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Posted 07 April 2017 - 09:17 AM

According to post 2 and Sam's tweet.  The four biggest metrics are past performance, returning starter(especially QB), recruiting rankings and staff stability.  

 

NU is 58 on this index and Minnesota is 55.  How is that? They have a new staff, we have higher overall recruiting rankings, they are replacing their QB and their past performance is overall not as good as NU.  I don't follow.  Michigan only returns like 4 starters adn they are 18 on the list.  

 

 

I would take Vegas as a better predictor. 


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#35 NUinID

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Posted 07 April 2017 - 09:19 AM

 

Sorry, there is nothing that should point to Nebraska being outside 8-10 wins.  If someone predicts outside those parameters, they would need to have real solid evidence to back it up.  Otherwise they are just pulling predictions out of their ass.

 

To be fair, the same could have been said in 2015.

 

 

Very much so, that is why these metrics are so iffy.  


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#36 BlitzFirst

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Posted 07 April 2017 - 09:54 AM

Looking at the schedule, and trying to remove emotion or bias, I can see why they have this predicted.  I put us a little better with worst case 7-5 and best case 10-2 for regular season.  We have to remember that so many of these numbers generated have Vegas betting behind them.  Then the authors twist the numbers to their benefit to get emotional responses from readers.  The current Vegas number for Nebraska wins in 2017 (over under) is 8.5.  If I were betting, I would have to take under 8.5 this year due to schedule and so many new elements to our team.  8 or more wins, to me, is a success this year- if the development on the field leaves us feeling like the next year will be a step forward.    

 

 

ESPN FPI has nothing to do with Vegas.


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#37 saunders45

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Posted 07 April 2017 - 09:54 AM

Well, we're about a month from preview magazine season kicking off. I have a feeling we'll be seeing mostly 7-8 win predictions across the board with a few 6 win fliers.


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#38 Husker2019

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Posted 07 April 2017 - 10:15 AM

Gonna be fun watching people freak out over it, too.
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