Husker Football Entering Precarious Period

[Mavric]

Yes, it all feels somewhat precarious. Having covered Nebraska football since the early 1990s, I can't remember a time when such a substantial number of fans entered a season willing to let a seven- or eight-win season slide. That's a prevalent vibe. That's certainly the vibe among local media who adore Riley.

 

The Riley "good-guy factor" is largely irrelevant to me, but I do stand squarely in the "patient with Riley" corner even while recognizing this is indeed a precarious time in program history. Nebraska's conference-championship drought stretches to 1999, and many fans (and local media) seem surprisingly OK with it stretching yet another year or two, confident that Riley's recruiting soon will pay dividends and allow Big Red to topple the beasts of the Big Ten East.

 

The Nebraska recruiting machine will have to pay dividends soon because of that arduous 2018 schedule, which includes trips to Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Iowa.

 

Is 2019 the most likely target year for Nebraska's conference title drought to end? In Riley's fifth year?

 

Seems reasonable.

 

Patience, amigos.

 

But my patience has limits.

 

Even Riley's most ardent defenders must acknowledge the need for on-field improvement. I want to see a team that always shows up prepared to play "good football." (We all know good, hard-nosed football when we see it.) We saw lousy, uninspired football in losses to Iowa and Tennessee to end last season. We saw a nightmare at Ohio State.

 

If those type of performances continue in 2017, a precarious situation for the program could become untenable. Nebraska would have to consider hitting the reset button.

 

LJS

[2ndNnine]

[teachercd]

My buddy, a big Riley backer, says he is worried about a struggle to get 7-8 wins this year and a collapse in '18 resulting in Riley "retiring"

[Hunter94]

My buddy, a big Riley backer, says he is worried about a struggle to get 7-8 wins this year and a collapse in '18 resulting in Riley "retiring"

yup, i heard the same sh#t, while i was in 7-11 last night.....it's true!

[JJ Husker]

I didn't read the whole article but I would agree with the writer in the OP snippet. I can't imagine there are many who would be okay with 7 or 8 or any lack of significant on field improvement. This year is vitally important to show that improvement and get the victories because it does get so much tougher beginning next season. That is when some patience with the W-L record may be required...if we're playing respectably.

[hskrpwr13]

This quote from the article is pretty much where I'm at:

 

 

During a Saturday phone conversation, Benning said nine wins would be a nice accomplishment as Riley continues to build the program in his style, which is distinctly different from predecessor Bo Pelini's. Damon noted that Pelini wasn't fired for winning nine games; he was fired because Eichorst felt Pelini reached his ceiling.

Riley fans have faith that Big Ten titles are around the corner.

"On paper, the 2018 roster will be terrific," Benning said.

Riley fans believe the Huskers had to take a few steps backward in order to move forward.

I'm eyeing 2019 as the season it all comes together. I'm willing to be patient in the meantime, as long as "good football" is evident.

If Nebraska continues to languish in 2019, "Greg in South Carolina" can call me a sucker.

 

 

I like how Riley is building his NU program. Who's out there thats gonna walk right in and turn us into Saban's Bama or Meyer's OSU? We'd all love for Frost to be the next Osborne, but what are those odds?

[Dagerow]

It's amazing how expectations have lowered. I remember when a lot of people thought a 9 win season was a disappointment, and now a 7 win is apparently ok for some? There is a significant difference between a 9 win team and a 7 win team.

[GBRFAN]

There is also a significant difference between a team that looks to be on the upswing and happens to only win 7 games and a team that is stuck in the mud and happens to pick up 9 wins. That first team may also win 10 or 11 games - we will wait and see. The team that was stuck in the mud lost 4 each year - we do know that.

 

For about 40 or 50 college teams that aren't in the top 10 or bottom 50 - there are going to be 4-6 games a year that are coin flips and some of those coin flips will come down to one play either being successful or not. Seems like for the long term it would be best to not get too fired up in either direction on those coin flips. Iowa and MSU are perfect examples of how a season can go good or bad by the smallest of margins.

 

Also a 7-8 season would be a disappointment, however doesn't mean it is time to light a match. Heck even a 9-10 win season could be disappointing depending on who the losses were to and how that outcome occurred.

[84HuskerLaw]

After twenty years of too much "wait until next year' because we will be much improved, there is no doubt a real dose of reality setting in. I also think that a large block of the fan base has finally come to realize that a good head coach and staff don't come around easy and it will take time to rebuild what was lost many many seasons ago. At one point time, the great majority of fans were excited for Frank Solich and believed he could do the job. The same was true of Callahan although he never had the level of fan support that Frank had early on. Then of course Bo came along and he had a great deal of support by vast majority as well. But Riley has less of this early mass fan support than any coach since Osborne. But ironically, in many ways, I see Riley as much more like Osborne than any other coach in our lifetimes. The difference between Riley in year 3 and Osborne in year three is primarily that Tom inherited a national championship level program and Riley inherited a number 35 to 40 level program. Tom came into the Big 8 (which was actually the Big 2 / little 6) and Tom had the advantage of being able to "schedule" about 8 wins with at most a couple challengers in the non-conference and a couple in conference. A bowl win was always tough iF he won too many in the regular season but became easier in those 'down' years.

 

By comparison, Riley came into a very shaky program without critical depth and talent to compete in the nation's top conference with a number of very challenging opponents and the league has scheduled us in the disadvantaged positition more often than not to 'iniate' us into the league and put us in the back seat. We are having to pay our 'dues' and this decade long guantlet is quite different that the schedule Osborne had to cope with in the 70s.

 

I think these reasons, along with the fact that Riley is quite genuine and likeable and Husker fans are fatigued by the hire and fire merry go round that has not proved successrful in returning us to glory. The losing seasons were attrocious under Callahan and the tantrums and embarrassment of Pelini were as distasteful as any blowout embarrassing.

 

I think fans also understand that the talent gap is glaring and won't be fixed in a season or two. Now, Riley needs to make progress - over time - but he has a more tolerant fan base of support than Callahan or Pelini.

[Dagerow]

There is also a significant difference between a team that looks to be on the upswing and happens to only win 7 games and a team that is stuck in the mud and happens to pick up 9 wins. That first team may also win 10 or 11 games - we will wait and see. The team that was stuck in the mud lost 4 each year - we do know that.

 

For about 40 or 50 college teams that aren't in the top 10 or bottom 50 - there are going to be 4-6 games a year that are coin flips and some of those coin flips will come down to one play either being successful or not. Seems like for the long term it would be best to not get too fired up in either direction on those coin flips. Iowa and MSU are perfect examples of how a season can go good or bad by the smallest of margins.

 

Also a 7-8 season would be a disappointment, however doesn't mean it is time to light a match. Heck even a 9-10 win season could be disappointing depending on who the losses were to and how that outcome occurred.

I guess your perception and my perception are two entirely different things. I don't see a team on the upswing. The next two years are not going great. (And despite the ranting of some, a 9 win season in not something to laugh at. It is an accomplishment and not easy. And I'm willing to beat that any of Bo's NU teams could beat any of Rileys).

[NUance]

It's amazing how expectations have lowered. I remember when a lot of people thought a 9 win season was a disappointment, and now a 7 win is apparently ok for some? There is a significant difference between a 9 win team and a 7 win team.

 

Yeah. Especially when you consider that a lot of our 9 and 10 win seasons came back when we were only playing 11 or 12 games per year.

 

OTOH, the average team goes .500, right?* So it's pretty difficult to win 80% of your games year in and year out.

 

 

* Slightly more than .500, with FCS games in the mix.

[GBRFAN]

 

There is also a significant difference between a team that looks to be on the upswing and happens to only win 7 games and a team that is stuck in the mud and happens to pick up 9 wins. That first team may also win 10 or 11 games - we will wait and see. The team that was stuck in the mud lost 4 each year - we do know that.

 

For about 40 or 50 college teams that aren't in the top 10 or bottom 50 - there are going to be 4-6 games a year that are coin flips and some of those coin flips will come down to one play either being successful or not. Seems like for the long term it would be best to not get too fired up in either direction on those coin flips. Iowa and MSU are perfect examples of how a season can go good or bad by the smallest of margins.

 

Also a 7-8 season would be a disappointment, however doesn't mean it is time to light a match. Heck even a 9-10 win season could be disappointing depending on who the losses were to and how that outcome occurred.

I guess your perception and my perception are two entirely different things. I don't see a team on the upswing. The next two years are not going great. (And despite the ranting of some, a 9 win season in not something to laugh at. It is an accomplishment and not easy. And I'm willing to beat that any of Bo's NU teams could beat any of Rileys).

 

 

It does look like our perceptions are different - which is fine. I based my perception on what i have seen over the last 2+ years. Based on your post you are basing yours on what you think will happen during the next 2 years (how can you say "the next two years are not going great"? we haven't played a single down in the first of those two years)

 

Nice idea to try to "bet" on something that can't actually happen.

 

So we are betting on hypotheticals and counting future predictions as facts.

[Dagerow]

 

 

 

There is also a significant difference between a team that looks to be on the upswing and happens to only win 7 games and a team that is stuck in the mud and happens to pick up 9 wins. That first team may also win 10 or 11 games - we will wait and see. The team that was stuck in the mud lost 4 each year - we do know that.

 

For about 40 or 50 college teams that aren't in the top 10 or bottom 50 - there are going to be 4-6 games a year that are coin flips and some of those coin flips will come down to one play either being successful or not. Seems like for the long term it would be best to not get too fired up in either direction on those coin flips. Iowa and MSU are perfect examples of how a season can go good or bad by the smallest of margins.

 

Also a 7-8 season would be a disappointment, however doesn't mean it is time to light a match. Heck even a 9-10 win season could be disappointing depending on who the losses were to and how that outcome occurred.

I guess your perception and my perception are two entirely different things. I don't see a team on the upswing. The next two years are not going great. (And despite the ranting of some, a 9 win season in not something to laugh at. It is an accomplishment and not easy. And I'm willing to beat that any of Bo's NU teams could beat any of Rileys).

It does look like our perceptions are different - which is fine. I based my perception on what i have seen over the last 2+ years. Based on your post you are basing yours on what you think will happen during the next 2 years (how can you say "the next two years are not going great"? we haven't played a single down in the first of those two years)

 

Nice idea to try to "bet" on something that can't actually happen.

 

So we are betting on hypotheticals and counting future predictions as facts.

Actually, my perception is not largely based upon what I think will happen in the future. It is primarily based upon what has happened, and how people's narrative had changed over time. You simply characterized the 9 win teams as stuck in the mud, and a 7 win team as on the upswing. I was simply responding to your post.

[teachercd]

The idea that 7 wins can be looked at as improvement ONLY makes sense if you are returning most of your team and especially at really important spots.

 

Now...why some posters won't face a few simple facts is sort of funny and sad. If this team wins 6 or 7 games it will mean that it will have had to have lost some combonation of games that includes, most likely, these teams:

 

OSU

PSU

Wisconsin

 

Now, that leaves 2 or 3 more losses. Which means those 2 or 3 more losses will come from:

NIU

Oregon

Iowa

Purdue

NW

Minny

Ark St

Rutgers

Illinois

 

So, the "7 wins can show progress" crowd would really be okay with 5...3 from the "obvious" list and 2 more from the lame list? Stop it...just stop.

 

Now, I can TOTALLY see Riley pulling a Riley...Losing to Oregon, Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue and NW...but beating OSU and PSU and everyone creaming themselves.

[Redux]

I want to see what Riley can do, I don't want him fired. This team is going to be loaded by next season for years to come!

 

But I also want to be beating Iowa and Wisconsin and winning the division and if we can't do that this season I'm gonna be incredibly frustrated.