Analytical Season Projection

[Mavric]

 

[HuskermanMike]

I will say we go 9-3 this year. I am gonna say we win against Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin and we drop Oregon early in the year or else the rest of that stays the same. It is pretty telling that we have basically two guaranteed losses, OSU and Penn State. Anything could happen but I am going to stick by my 9-3 prediction with a win against Wiscy, that game takes a lot out of us and we play super hard next week against Ohio State, but they wear us out in the fourth. Oregon on the road at night is never a fun situation, I am gonna say they make a play down the stretch and take that game. Happy Valley is not gonna be fun this year if you are a Nebraska fan, if we can contain Barkley for that game we may have a legit chance. We always play well against PSU, so that game will be within 6 points imo. We beat the teams we are supposed to and take down Iowa by two touchdowns.

[admo]

I like analytics. D+ for HCMR? Ouch

Diaco looks to be a huge upgrade.

[Caliborn72]

Looks about right for everyone, no matter how positive or negative you feel. 4 gimmes, 2 games that don't look so good, and then a bunch of toss-ups where our team is going to have to dig deep and make some plays to decide what kind of season we have.

 

Anywhere from 6 (probably more like 7)wins to hopefully 9 or 10. That's what happens with so many variables changing.

[admo]

The #'s for the projected W/L seems similar to ESPN power football index. Maybe a tough year is what the numbers think.

 

ESPN Football Power Index

Matchup predictor

 

HUSKERS:

81% vs Arkansas State 19% - Win

14.4% at Oregon 85.6% - L

84.4% vs Northern Illinois 15.6% - Win

82.3% Rutgers 17.7% - Win

63.6% at Illinois 36.4% - Win

17.3% vs Wisconsin 82.7% - L

05.0% vs OSU 95.0% - L

75.8% at Purdue 24.2% - Win

37.5% vs Northwestern 62.5% - L

50.6% at Minnesota 49.4% - TossUP

08.2% at Penn State 91.8% - L

46.7% vs Iowa 53.3% - TossUP

　

So 5 wins 5 losses and 2 coin flips

[It'sNotAFakeID]

You know what they say: there's lies, damned lies, and statistics. However, I only say that about stats I don't like

[Mavric]

 

[boach_clack]

I think it will all come down to the Defense and the QB play. If Tanner Lee is able to control possession and defense doesnt give up big plays, we should be in position to win a few games. With that said, 9-3 is pretty lofty. Im thinking 8-4.

[teachercd]

How come when Riley was at OSU he was the amazing A or B type of coach...now he is D+?

[zoogs]

 

This is my first time seeing the schedule. Yeah, it seems quite possible to drop Wisc, Ohio St, Penn St, and Iowa -- and then flip one or two more games on top of that. Of course, a flip can also happen the other way, but 4-5 losses in the regular season isn't unreasonable. The story will be in the how. This is a tough slate and it'll be good to see how Nebraska stacks up against these teams.

But meh. "Analytics", take it for what it's worth.

[zoogs]

Also:

[Mary Pats BOB]

 

This is my first time seeing the schedule. Yeah, it seems quite possible to drop Wisc, Ohio St, Penn St, and Iowa -- and then flip one or two more games on top of that. Of course, a flip can also happen the other way, but 4-5 losses in the regular season isn't unreasonable. The story will be in the how. This is a tough slate and it'll be good to see how Nebraska stacks up against these teams.

 

https://twitter.com/cfb_professor/status/823903212960772096

 

https://twitter.com/cfb_professor/status/893079703438884866

 

But meh. "Analytics", take it for what it's worth.

We beat Iowa

[zoogs]

We most recently lost 40-10. I can see why the expectations are low

[Scratchtown]

I don't understand the numbers even after the explanation. The categories they are trying to measure aren't even close to something that is comparable. How do you measure overall talent on the roster?

 

Riley isn't a D+ coach, and Taggart at Oregon is not an F- OC/HC

 

I don't understand how a coach who took bottom feeder Western Kentucky from 2-10 to 7-5 and a terrible tanking USF from 2-10 to 10-2 can be F-

 

The guy has never regressed in a year from the year prior. How is that an F-?

[Mavric]

I've been curious for awhile on where they get their talent numbers but I've never been able to find anything for sure. My guess is they're using something similar - or perhaps exactly - 247's roster talent numbers where they take the final recruiting rating for each player currently on the roster and add them up. Then they can compare the talent actually on the roster in a given year. Imperfect because it doesn't measure development but better than just using average class rating for the last few years because it accounts for attrition.