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ESPN: Can Riley Fix Nebraska?

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neepster    71
26 minutes ago, Mavric said:

 

Actually, the numbers don't show that.  At all.

Really?  I have to admit I didn't do the math on the recuiting classes but if I remember correctly the classes we had with Bo were typically ranked in the 30s, while with Rilely we seem to be in the 20s.  But I haven't done the averages.  And of course everyone here keeps saying how he is so much better of a recruiter than Bo was and how Bo's teams just kept getting worse because he hated recruiting.

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Redux    5,067
24 minutes ago, Mavric said:

Fun with multiquotes!

 

 

 

 

:goalposts:

 

3 division titles in 7 years is damn impressive....I guess?

 

How was that in any way moving the goalposts?  Bo's record is comparable to Fank Solich, decent record but not good enough in a couple areas.  I get that you think i am trying to somehow defend Riley here and I'm not.

 

You know, it is possible that a person can try to better explain themself without you instantly pulling the whole moving the goal posts card.

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khaake    69

The solution is right in front of us - we should bring in somebody cutthroat like Trump. THEN we would know what it's like to have a winner instead of all these losers we've surrounded ourselves with since vaulted days of Osborne and his troop of golden dinosaurs. We obviously need somebody like Trump to Make Nebraska Great Again! The wins, the money, and the recruits would come pouring in, let me tell you. Nobody knows how to win like Trump. The days of crooked Eichorst would be over. We could build a wall around the endzone and make Iowa pay for it. Make Nebraska Great Again! Make Nebraska Great Again! Make Nebraska...
Capture.JPG.c344b2cf5813c89a995658a4e0a4981c.JPG

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Dewiz    1,341
1 minute ago, 1995 Redux said:

 

You forgot:

 

Better at playing Wisconsin closr: Riley

Better at getting s#!t stomped by Wisconsin: Bo

Better at upsetting MSU: Tie

Bettwr at getting s#!t stomped by Ohio State: Tie

Better at beating Iowa: Bo

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Mavric    9,148
1 minute ago, 1995 Redux said:

 

You forgot:

 

Better at playing Wisconsin closr: Riley

Better at getting s#!t stomped by Wisconsin: Bo

Better at upsetting MSU: Tie

Bettwr at getting s#!t stomped by Ohio State: Tie

 

Better at beating Illinois: Bo

Better at beating Purdue: Bo

Better at game ending Hail Marys: Bo

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Landlord    7,375
Just now, Mavric said:

 

Better at beating Illinois: Bo

Better at beating Purdue: Bo

Better at game ending Hail Marys: Bo

 

 

 

Better at defending halftime Hail marys: Riley :lol:

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ColoradoHusk    3,322

Why does every topic that questions Riley turn into a pissing contest about Bo vs. Riley?

 

Can't we judge the merits of a coach independently?

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Redux    5,067
2 minutes ago, Mavric said:

 

Better at beating Illinois: Bo

Better at beating Purdue: Bo

Better at game ending Hail Marys: Bo

 

Better at almost losing to FCS teams: Bo

Better at losing to MAC teams: Riley

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QMany    2,891
12 minutes ago, 1995 Redux said:

 

 

 

 

Did he say he was happy with the status quo? If so, it must have been in a different quote you didn't include.

It is a fact that Bo Pelini won the division several times. That doesn't mean I was happy with the status of the program when he left.

 

 

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GSG    5,515
Just now, 1995 Redux said:

 

Better at almost losing to FCS teams: Bo

Better at losing to MAC teams: Riley

 

Mike's lucky we don't schedule FCS teams anymore. He might ACTUALLY lose to them!

 

PS: Better at chewing gum: Bo. He was always kicking that gum's ass!

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Mavric    9,148
2 minutes ago, neepster said:

Really?  I have to admit I didn't do the math on the recuiting classes but if I remember correctly the classes we had with Bo were typically ranked in the 30s, while with Rilely we seem to be in the 20s.  But I haven't done the averages.  And of course everyone here keeps saying how he is so much better of a recruiter than Bo was and how Bo's teams just kept getting worse because he hated recruiting.

 

Per 247 Composite:

 

Class Average Recruits (# 4*+)
 02    .8316    18  (2)
 03    .8316    19  (2)
 04    .8237    20  (2)
 05*   .8523    32  (7)
 06*   .8493    22  (5)
 07*   .8587    26  (6)
 08    .8449    29  (3)
 09    .8580    19  (2)
 10*   .8642    20  (5)
 11    .8832    21  (9)
 12    .8773    17  (8)
 13    .8655    24  (7)
 14    .8601    25  (2)
 15    .8617    21  (4)
 16    .8707    21  (5)

 17    .8758    20  (5)


* 2005 - Leon Jackson isn't on 247's list but was a 4* on Rivals
* 2006 - Major Culbert doesn't show a rating on 247 but was a high 3* on Rivals
* 2007 - Armando Murillo (JUCO) not included in 247's list
* 2010 - Stanley Jean-Baptiste and Chase Harper (JUCOs) not included in 247's rankings

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brophog    324
3 minutes ago, ColoradoHusk said:

Why does every topic that questions Riley turn into a pissing contest about Bo vs. Riley?

 

Can't we judge the merits of a coach independently?

 

Or just hire someone new and talk about him.

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ColoradoHusk    3,322
Just now, QMany said:

 

Did he say he was happy with the status quo? If so, it must have been in a different quote you didn't include.

It is a fact that Bo Pelini won the division several times. That doesn't mean I was happy with the status of the program when he left.

 

 

Bo did some good things at NU.  I really enjoyed watching those teams during the division championship seasons.  Yeah, it sucked when they lost the conference title game, especially the Wisconsin debacle.  I agree that I was becoming less happy with the direction of the program under Bo, and wasn't heartbroken when he was fired.

 

However, when I see the direction of the program under Riley, it looks much worse to me.

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Redux    5,067
23 minutes ago, Mavric said:

 

If you have a more objective way to rate the classes, please let us all know.

 

And calling them "arbitrary" is to be willfully ignorant of how it works.

 

There is no system that does it justice, you know this.  Stop being difficult.  The only way to gauge a player in HS is by looking at their play at the next level, impossible.  And even that is hard to guage considering who they play for and talent surrounding them.

 

Pretending the player rankings is fail safe is being willfully ignorant.

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Mavric    9,148
Just now, 1995 Redux said:

 

There is no system that does it justice, you know this.  Stop being difficult.  The only way to gauge a player in HS is by looking at their play at the next level, impossible.  And even that is hard to guage considering who they play for and talent surrounding them.

 

Pretending the player rankings is fail safe is being willfully ignorant.

 

No.  Wanting to totally discount them is refusing to believe the facts in front of you.

 

Accusing me of saying or even thinking they are "fail safe" is a fiction created entirely by you.

 

Are they perfect?  Of course not.  Over a sufficiently large sample size are they a pretty good indicator?  Yes.  Are they the best we have to go on?  Yes.

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Redux    5,067
3 minutes ago, Mavric said:

Are they perfect?  Of course not.  Over a sufficiently large sample size are they a pretty good indicator?  Yes.  Are they the best we have to go on?  Yes.

 

And I don't didagree with this, so you saying 

Quote

 

If you have a more objective way to rate the classes, please let us all know.

Is just you trying to be snotty.  I was merely saying they don't  tell the whole story, same with on field records.

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KingBlank    61
17 minutes ago, Mavric said:

 

Per 247 Composite:

 

Class Average Recruits (# 4*+)
 02    .8316    18  (2)
 03    .8316    19  (2)
 04    .8237    20  (2)
 05*   .8523    32  (7)
 06*   .8493    22  (5)
 07*   .8587    26  (6)
 08    .8449    29  (3)
 09    .8580    19  (2)
 10*   .8642    20  (5)
 11    .8832    21  (9)
 12    .8773    17  (8)
 13    .8655    24  (7)
 14    .8601    25  (2)
 15    .8617    21  (4)
 16    .8707    21  (5)

 17    .8758    20  (5)


* 2005 - Leon Jackson isn't on 247's list but was a 4* on Rivals
* 2006 - Major Culbert doesn't show a rating on 247 but was a high 3* on Rivals
* 2007 - Armando Murillo (JUCO) not included in 247's list
* 2010 - Stanley Jean-Baptiste and Chase Harper (JUCOs) not included in 247's rankings

So the last 3 years of Bo had more 4 stars then Riley's first 3 years.  

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teachercd    2,778

Better at having to leave a game to go to the hospital:  Bo

Better at living in a hotel and learning the names of the wait staff:  Riley

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unlfan    470

Better at ordering ice cream and sprinkles for the players: Riley

Better at wishing he worked at McDonalds: Bo, not theres anything wrong with that

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neepster    71
53 minutes ago, Mavric said:

 

Per 247 Composite:

 

Class Average Recruits (# 4*+)
 02    .8316    18  (2)
 03    .8316    19  (2)
 04    .8237    20  (2)
 05*   .8523    32  (7)
 06*   .8493    22  (5)
 07*   .8587    26  (6)
 08    .8449    29  (3)
 09    .8580    19  (2)
 10*   .8642    20  (5)
 11    .8832    21  (9)
 12    .8773    17  (8)
 13    .8655    24  (7)
 14    .8601    25  (2)
 15    .8617    21  (4)
 16    .8707    21  (5)

 17    .8758    20  (5)


* 2005 - Leon Jackson isn't on 247's list but was a 4* on Rivals
* 2006 - Major Culbert doesn't show a rating on 247 but was a high 3* on Rivals
* 2007 - Armando Murillo (JUCO) not included in 247's list
* 2010 - Stanley Jean-Baptiste and Chase Harper (JUCOs) not included in 247's rankings

 

Thanks for this.  I also added Rival's rankings and here is the new table.  Then I made some plots in JMP.

 

Class Average Recruit Ct #4* Rivals Rank Recruiter
 02  .8316  18  (2) 39 Solich
 03  .8316  19  (2) 42 Solich
 04  .8237  20  (2) 27 Callahan
 05* 0.8523  32  (7) 5 Callahan
 06* 0.8493  22  (5) 20 Callahan
 07* 0.8587  26  (6) 13 Callahan
 08  .8449  29  (3) 30 Callahan
 09  .8580  19  (2) 28 Pelini
 10* 0.8642  20  (5) 22 Pelini
 11  .8832  21  (9) 15 Pelini
 12  .8773  17  (8) 25 Pelini
 13  .8655  24  (7) 17 Pelini
 14  .8601  25  (2) 32 Pelini
 15  .8617  21  (4) 31 Pelini
 16  .8707  21  (5) 24 Riley
 17  .8758  20  (5) 20 Riley
18       51* Riley

 

I didn't count the current recruiting year since obviously that is not done yet.

 

It is close but at least in Average (not sure what that is) Riley is ahead of Pelini.  Same thing with Rival's ranking.  Riley is slightly lower/better.  Pelini has a slight edge on average # of 4* recruits (by 0.25 per year).  But it is indeed close no matter which way you slice it.

 

The things that stand out here are:

Callahan was by far the best recruiter by 'class rank' but is worse than Pelini or Riley by Average...

Solich had two really bad years recruiting right at the end

Callahan had an amazing 2005 class (inc. Suh).

Riley and Pelini are closer in recruiting performance on average than I expected

 

recruiting3.jpg

recruiting2.jpg

recruiting1.jpg

Edited by neepster
add more commentary

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GSG    5,515
35 minutes ago, GSG5545 said:

 

Mike's lucky we don't schedule FCS teams anymore. He might ACTUALLY lose to them!

 

PS: Better at chewing gum: Bo. He was always kicking that gum's ass!

 

Not at NU, but Riley did lose to FCS Sacramento State in 2011 and FCS Eastern Washington in 2013

 

giphy.gif

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Redux    5,067

My whole perspective is that saying the NIU loss is worse than any loss Bo ever led us to is just bias and perspective.  It's easy to say that right now and look back and not remember all the painful losses as being quite as painful.  Is Nebraska losing to Noethern Illinois at home ACTUALLY worse than Nebraska losing to Wisconsin in the 2012 title game by a score of 31-70?  I mean, I guess it can be depending on what point you are trying to make.

 

The facf of the matter is our last three coaches have all been painfully inadequate to what we expect and want.  Measuring failure is pointless.

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RedDenver    1,387
1 hour ago, 1995 Redux said:

I can think off two instances considering opponent that were almost worse than last Saturday

 

2009 Iowa State - Bo took a humiliating loss at home with what was his best team.

 

That's the same as Riley's loss to NIU. Both were in that coach's second season and were upsets due to turnovers as well.

 

Note that the 2009 team bounced back to get to the B12 title game, give Texas everything they had, and dominated Arizona in a bowl game. So there's still hope?

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Mavric    9,148

I don't care as much for class rankings because that's obviously dependent on what other teams do.  It is also dependent on how many you take in each class.  That's a lot of the reason why Callahan's 2005 class got ranked so high.  There were 32 in the class so they added up to a lot of points but "only" seven of them were four-stars so it wasn't as good as a lot of people like to think it was.

 

The Average is the average rating from the 247 Composite rating.  Also the number I put down for four-stars in each class is if they were a composite four star.  

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Redux    5,067
5 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

2009 Iowa State - Bo took a humiliating loss at home with what was his best team.

 

That's the same as Riley's loss to NIU. Both were in that coach's second season and were upsets due to turnovers as well.

 

Note that the 2009 team bounced back to get to the B12 title game, give Texas everything they had, and dominated Arizona in a bowl game. So there's still hope?

 

Yeah, exactly.  Neither are good, but saying one is by far worse is just steering an agenda.

 

Conversely, what is better?  Our 2015 win over top ranked MSU or our 2011 win over top ranked MSU?  Our comeback ein against Ohio State in 2011 or our comback win against Oregon in 2016?

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neepster    71
4 minutes ago, Mavric said:

I don't care as much for class rankings because that's obviously dependent on what other teams do.  It is also dependent on how many you take in each class.  That's a lot of the reason why Callahan's 2005 class got ranked so high.  There were 32 in the class so they added up to a lot of points but "only" seven of them were four-stars so it wasn't as good as a lot of people like to think it was.

 

The Average is the average rating from the 247 Composite rating.  Also the number I put down for four-stars in each class is if they were a composite four star.  

 

Ok those are some good points.  I guess it comes down to whether you consider the 0.01 delta between Pelini's average and Riley's to be significant then.  At least so far Riley has been very consistent in class average, but Pelini had 2 years that were better than  any of Riley's so far.

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Redux    5,067
29 minutes ago, KingBlank said:

So the last 3 years of Bo had more 4 stars then Riley's first 3 years.  

 

Curious, how many of those 4* transfered out or never made it to campus?

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Red_Payne    42

Arguing Bo vs. Riley is futile.

 

Riley, imho, has  not been all that good in recruiting. Sure, the numbers may look good; but it's been a lot of WR and QB.... VERY little O-line talent he's brought into Lincoln; which has been the BIGGEST issue we've had the past couple seasons. Can't run ANY offense if you can't block. Thus, all that impact recruiting Riley is making goes to waste.

That's the biggest issue I have with Riley, and THAT'S the reason why I don't believe he can right the ship.

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unlfan    470
2 minutes ago, 1995 Redux said:

 

Yeah, exactly.  Neither are good, but saying one is by far worse is just steering an agenda.

 

Conversely, what is better?  Our 2015 win over top ranked MSU or our 2011 win over top ranked MSU?  Our comeback ein against Ohio State in 2011 or our comback win against Oregon in 2016?

No steering of agenda.

 

9-4, 10-4, 10-4, 9-4, 10-4, 9-4, 9-3    vs.      6-7, 9-4, 1-2

 

just simple facts.

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Redux    5,067
5 minutes ago, unlfan said:

No steering of agenda.

 

9-4, 10-4, 10-4, 9-4, 10-4, 9-4, 9-3    vs.      6-7, 9-4, 1-2

 

just simple facts.

 

We are all aware of Bo's record.  It was 2 songs on shuffle for 7 seasons.  Are the numbers better?  Absolutely.  Are we better off now?  Debatable.  Will we be better off?  Yet to be determined.

 

And yes, they are "simple facts" because actually viewing them from a bigger picture would show they aren't as glorious as you want them to be.

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Redux    5,067
7 minutes ago, Red_Payne said:

Arguing Bo vs. Riley is futile.

 

Riley, imho, has  not been all that good in recruiting. Sure, the numbers may look good; but it's been a lot of WR and QB.... VERY little O-line talent he's brought into Lincoln; which has been the BIGGEST issue we've had the past couple seasons. Can't run ANY offense if you can't block. Thus, all that impact recruiting Riley is making goes to waste.

That's the biggest issue I have with Riley, and THAT'S the reason why I don't believe he can right the ship.

 

I hate this debate and I regret getting into it.  But the OP brought the discussion up.

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Mavric    9,148
9 minutes ago, neepster said:

Ok those are some good points.  I guess it comes down to whether you consider the 0.01 delta between Pelini's average and Riley's to be significant then.  At least so far Riley has been very consistent in class average, but Pelini had 2 years that were better than  any of Riley's so far.

 

I don't think it's significant.  Your original statement is that Riley was a better recruiter and the numbers show there is no arguing that.  I don't think that is the case.  I think the recruiting we've seen from Riley so far is basically average for what Pelini did.  Pelini had two classes that were clearly better but he also had classes that were worse.  Overall, about the same.  And definitely not the huge boost in recruiting that many expected and some even claim has happened.

 

Four months ago I really thought that the 2018 class would be the class that got Riley in front of any of Pelini's classes.  I'm far less confident in that now.

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neepster    71
43 minutes ago, KingBlank said:

So the last 3 years of Bo had more 4 stars then Riley's first 3 years.  

 

I wouldn't consider that Riley has been recruiting for 3 years... I'd say instead that Riley had more 4 stars in his first 2 years (10) than Pelini did in his last 2 (6).  And that is significant I think.

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neepster    71
Just now, Mavric said:

 

I don't think it's significant.  Your original statement is that Riley was a better recruiter and the numbers show there is no arguing that.  I don't think that is the case.  I think the recruiting we've seen from Riley so far is basically average for what Pelini did.  Pelini had two classes that were clearly better but he also had classes that were worse.  Overall, about the same.  And definitely not the huge boost in recruiting that many expected and some even claim has happened.

 

Four months ago I really thought that the 2018 class would be the class that got Riley in front of any of Pelini's classes.  I'm far less confident in that now.

 

Ok, I agree with you and I was wrong in my original comment.  They are either very close in performance or Pelini might even be a bit better.

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Mavric    9,148
1 minute ago, neepster said:

I wouldn't consider that Riley has been recruiting for 3 years... I'd say instead that Riley had more 4 stars in his first 2 years (10) than Pelini did in his last 2 (6).  And that is significant I think.

 

Considering Pelini was fired two months before NSD, I don't think you can count the 2015 class fully toward him.  Or toward Riley.  Those classes are always down for obvious reasons.  Just like the 2008 class.

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1 minute ago, In the Deed the Glory said:

 

Bo sucked...

 

Riley sucks...

 

Let's find someone that doesn't suck!

Straight to the point, no analysis required.  +1 to you good sir.

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neepster    71
1 minute ago, Mavric said:

 

Considering Pelini was fired two months before NSD, I don't think you can count the 2015 class fully toward him.  Or toward Riley.  Those classes are always down for obvious reasons.  Just like the 2008 class.

 

Ok, another good point :)  I'll stop now.

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KingBlank    61
17 minutes ago, 1995 Redux said:

 

Curious, how many of those 4* transfered out or never made it to campus?

Well 2 of Mike's never made it this year, so we can be as curious as we want, Mike's class this year of kids that actually made it here is closer to being ranked 35 then 20th

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KingBlank    61
21 minutes ago, 1995 Redux said:

 

We are all aware of Bo's record.  It was 2 songs on shuffle for 7 seasons.  Are the numbers better?  Absolutely.  Are we better off now?  Debatable.  Will we be better off?  Yet to be determined.

 

And yes, they are "simple facts" because actually viewing them from a bigger picture would show they aren't as glorious as you want them to be.

It's not debatable, unless we win the West the year we are worse off.

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Redux    5,067
3 minutes ago, KingBlank said:

It's not debatable, unless we win the West the year we are worse off.

 

Well, hence why it's debatable.  Obviously not many actually expect that to happen, but it's still early enough we could luck into something.

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El Diaco    4,533

Not that NIU wasn't bad but IMO a couple performances by Pelini teams were worse. A certain Wisconsin game comes to mind. Is Gordon still running.....?

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krc1995    484
3 hours ago, unlfan said:

 

You think games Bo won are worse than Riley's Purdue and NIU losses? Laughable.

When did we lose to Purdue?

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Redux    5,067
37 minutes ago, El Diaco said:

Not that NIU wasn't bad but IMO a couple performances by Pelini teams were worse. A certain Wisconsin game comes to mind. Is Gordon still running.....?

 

All about perspective.  Losing to a MAC team at home sounds worse on paper than losing to Wisconsin in a championship game.  But when you break it down and look at it in depth, obviously the Wisconsin game is worse.

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QMany    2,891
7 minutes ago, 1995 Redux said:

 

All about perspective.  Losing to a MAC team at home sounds worse on paper than losing to Wisconsin in a championship game.  But when you break it down and look at it in depth, obviously the Wisconsin game is worse.

Obviously, that is your bias and perspective.

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Redux    5,067
Just now, QMany said:

Obviously, that is your bias and perspective.

 

Yup, sure is.

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KingBlank    61
11 minutes ago, QMany said:

Obviously, that is your bias and perspective.

He has to hold on to the his belief that Riley was the correct choice.

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