Offensive Predictability

[Mavric]

I'm pretty convinced at this point that one of our biggest problems on offense - and there are plenty to go around - is that we are very predictable.  We seem to run an inordinately high percentage of our running plays from heavy sets and pass out of spread sets.

 

I didn't get to watch the game live yesterday.  But I quickly watched the replay on BTN2Go.  It seemed like about 90% of the time of first down we'd line up in a two TE or TE/FB set, motion a receiver in tight and run straight ahead.

 

I'll try to do a more in-depth review as I have time but here are some tweets from McKewon that anecdotally agree with that.  He's not focused on that but I think part of the reason why we're struggling with our blocking is the defense knows by our formation that there's a high probability a run is coming so they can stack the box and run blitz.

 

10 offensive guys in tight.

 

10 offensive guys in tight.

 

 

9 offensive guys in tight.

 

[Toe]

How to make a pro style offense as predictable as a high school offense...

[alwayshusking]

They were really tipping their hand yesterday.  Would like to see us run more out of spread sets. Oz's big run late in the 3rd was out of a shotgun 3-wide set I believe.

 

The tight formations with walk on WRs makes it too obvious we're going to run and doesn't threaten the defense. 

[EmeraldIngot]

Part of the problem is that they don't chain their runs off each other, nor do they run PA out of their most common or successful run plays. 

 

For example, we had some early success with the counter O, but we don't run anything off of the same look. That is, with a guard and TE pulling towards the 'backside' of the play, we don't run anything where those guys pull and the RB goes towards the frontside. Maybe if we ran a trap or a dive where those guys both pull and block towards the middle? It would give, initially at least, the same look, but they would be two different plays. If the defense starts biting hard on one play, run the other and watch your RB pull in 15-20 yards a pop. An A-gap dive or a variation on an inside zone split would work wonderfully. Add in a play action off the same look, and that's another possibility for a big play. 

 

Right now, there's no real continuity or connection between the plays being run. It's about as random as pulling plays from a hat. 

 

It also ties into identity. Right now, we don't have an identity, we don't have a core group of plays we can point to and say 'this is what we like to do'. A good offense starts with a core group of plays. For example, inside zone, outside zone, bubble screen, slant bubbles, levels, corner curls. From there, plays are added that, initially, look identical to the core plays, but go different directions. Like a zone counter split, read option, inverted veer, fake bubble fade, corner post (with an underneath out route) and so on. Finally, a smart OC will add in situational plays, meant to beat specific fronts and coverages based on who they play any particular week. And if you've got a good enough QB or an excellent communication system (signs or signals from the sidelines) you can put in hot routes and audibles to beat particular blitzes, especially ones your opponents like to run. 

 

Anything else on top of that is just style. The core principles remain the same, regardless of what 'system' an offense runs. West Coast, pro style, spread, even being 'multiple', whatever, doesn't matter. Establishing an identity by having and running a core group of plays makes everything an offense does easier. A defense will tool itself to try to stop your core plays, but by running a play that directly exploits a defense expecting something else, and you'll have huge, backbreaking explosive plays. And if they don't adjust to stopping your core plays, since they're the plays your offense is the most familiar with and (hopefully) the best at running, you'll still be able to drive down the field. 

 

Osborne's teams did this. The counter trey was specifically designed to exploit defenses that were over committing to stop the power O. The read option was specifically designed to take advantage of overly aggressive 'contain' defenders.

 

Right now, our offense doesn't seem to have any 'core' plays, let alone any counters to our core plays. They're not chaining plays together, and many times it seems like each new look only has one play that's ever run out of it. It's a poorly designed offense. While they have some well designed individual plays (at times), there's no continuity between plays, nothing that really links them together. That's why defenses are able to key in and stop up seemingly at will. 

 

At least, that's my opinion anyway. 

[LumberJackSker]

Langs is just saving all his good plays and formations for Wisconsin

[C N Red]

Its pretty bad when my mom can call what we are going to run probably >33% of the time. So id hate to know what % defensive coordinators and players who watch a lot of film are. 

[HuskermanMike]

Luckily we were unpredictable with Armstrong. Heck, we weren't quite sure what he was going to do with the ball in his hands.

[H2h]

Does Lee always turn to his left when handing the ball off? That third play in particular looked like if he turns to his right we at least hit for positive yardage. The play was very slow to develop by turning left. Is that by design football experts or did he turn the wrong way? (Same can be said for the 2nd play, but that looked to be more of by design to me?)

 

Also it looks like play number two would have hit for a gain if the TE/WR at the top of the screen blocks it the same way he did in play number one. I can see no reason why he did what he did on the second play. 

[gobiggergoredder]

It's compounded by the fact they don't appear to audible.

[teachercd]

WCO:  First 5-10 plays usually look great (Hmmm, I wonder why)

The rest of the plays look like a struggle fest (Hmmm, I wonder why)

[BIG ERN]

Awful skinny playbook ain't it? I run 6 plays, split veer. It's like Novocaine. 

[bugeater17]

Exactly Mav - we have a major issue, especially in the run game, with being predictable. With the inconsistent play on the offensive line, it doesn't help that we have linebackers and safeties flying downhill to stop the run because we are tipping our play calling based on formations and motion.

 

I appreciate your analysis and inclusion of clips... it reinforces my yelling at the TV that we are too predictable and that i'm able to call what play is coming.

[BaytownHusker]

Where was Morgan??

[BIG ERN]

11 minutes ago, BaytownHusker said:

Where was Morgan??

Has a neck injury 

[Mavric]

Benning just now saying "it seems like when we have this WR package we run the ball, when we have this WR package we throw the ball."