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Trump's Tax Plan

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dudeguyy    3,490

After seeing this visualized, I never want to hear another word about how the ACA was "crammed down people's throats."

 



You know if anyone tries to make that argument, they're either completely disingenuous or a completely misinformed.

Also, another interesting corollary this bill has on future legislation is that the excuse "we can't afford it" is officially off the board. Sure, the GOP enjoys their "win" by rushing a bill that blows a $1.5T or so hole in the deficit for future generations. 

Will they enjoy this tactic when it manifests itself in a gigantic deficit-funded infrastructure bill? Or an expensive single-payer universal healthcare bill? 

Edited by dudeguyy

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Nebfanatic    1,080
9 hours ago, dudeguyy said:

After seeing this visualized, I never want to hear another word about how the ACA was "crammed down people's throats."

 



You know if anyone tries to make that argument, they're either completely disingenuous or a completely misinformed.

Also, another interesting corollary this bill has on future legislation is that the excuse "we can't afford it" is officially off the board. Sure, the GOP enjoys their "win" by rushing a bill that blows a $1.5T or so hole in the deficit for future generations. 

Will they enjoy this tactic when it manifests itself in a gigantic deficit-funded infrastructure bill? Or an expensive single-payer universal healthcare bill? 

They will still use that excuse, they already are. This bill wont change a damn thing. Entrenched GOP supporters will find someone else to blame when this thing fails spectacularly for them and the GOP will be leading the charge. It will forever be on their record, but the group of people who support it now will always support the GOP no matter what and will use every possible avenue to prop up the tax cuts and blame the fallout on others. The blinders for some are permanent it seems. 

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dudeguyy    3,490

Another data point that big tax cuts aren't the silver bullet so many in the GOP claim they are:
 

 

North Carolina slashed their corporate tax rate in a way very similar to what we're doing now in the "Carolina Comeback" to try to kickstart the economy after the Great Recession

 

In North Carolina:

  • Jobs and overall economy growing slightly faster than national average.
  • Small business owner above Eric Henry "doesn't know the people [their cuts] benefit" and claims to not benefit from them at all personally.
  • Median hourly wage growing at roughly same level as national average.
  • Average hourly wage and annual wage growing slower than national average.
  • They also reduced personal income taxes, eliminated the estate tax & increased the sales tax (regressive!)
  • The state budget is lagging behind. It's projected to begin a shortfall of $1.2B starting in 2019 (for comparison, Nebraska only had a $900M shortfall this year).
  • State school funding per-pupil, adjusted for inflation, is down. Funding for school supplies is down 20%. One superintendent noted their district had 33% less for new textbooks than a decade ago. State lawmakers predictably cut education budgets to compensate for their decreased revenue, including shorting teacher pay raises.
  • Workers are Henry's T-shirt business subjectively say they didn't even notice the tax cuts, except one who mentions "the roads aren't getting fixed."

And this paragraph stood out to me:

 

Quote

Eating lunch at Reverence Farms Café in nearby Graham, Henry sat with Bruce Nelson, who runs the cafe and a local farm with his daughter and son-in-law. In a different life, Nelson was chief executive of Office Depot. He said he understood why Wall Street was so excited about tax reform.

 

“It’s all about earnings per share,” Nelson said. Lower taxes mean higher earnings.

 

But Nelson said he doubted the cuts would generate significant corporate investment. Companies already need to be ruthless about lowering costs. He couldn’t imagine a company waiting for a tax cut to become more efficient. And he didn’t expect the tax cuts to translate into pay raises.

 

“There’s no such thing as trickle-down,” Nelson said.

 

The dude was a CEO, so I assume he's fairly well-versed in the stuff.

 

So, what did their big tax cuts earn NC? Some marginal growth and jobs growth - they were already a business-friendly state. But workers don't see the benefits, and the lost revenue comes out of things like infrastructure and education.

 

Seems like a pretty raw deal for the little guy.

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zoogs    6,367

Lee Fang has been on a tear in recent days, in terms of holding the GOP's feet to the fire over this tax bill. Props.

The crazy thing about this is, when you first read that you think "Ah, the good Senator from Alaska made sure to safeguard her state's natural treasure against her rapacious party."

 

Then you think, but wait, she's a Republican, so what if...and you look it up, and indeed. Murkowski's "buy-in" condition for supporting this bill was making sure that ANWR oil drilling was put into the bill.  

 

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Big Red 40    66
On 11/30/2017 at 5:32 PM, zoogs said:

That seems like a totally necessary and good thing to do at a time when the economy is doing well.

 

We'll just have to pay for it by gutting Medicare and Social Security. Right, @SenJohnMavrickHeroOfTheResistanceAndGuyWithThatThumbsDownMomentMcCain? 

That’s exactly what they’ll do too . The 1.3 trillion dollars in tax breaks for the wealthy is money the government/ country needs to run . Something else will have to suffer to make up for that loss. Gutting social  programs like Medicare are Social Security is the preferred method  for recouping those losses .  This has all been done before with disastrous consequences and there’s no reason to believe it won’t happen again . 

Edited by Big Red 40

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deedsker    333
6 minutes ago, Big Red 40 said:

That’s exactly what they’ll do too . The 1.3 trillion dollars in tax breaks for the wealthy is money the government/ country needs to run . Something else will have to suffer to make up for that loss. Gutting social  programs like Medicare are Social Security is the preferred method  for recouping those losses .  This has all been done before with disastrous consequences and there’s no reason to believe it won’t happen again . 

Hope baby boomers have their money ready or they are going to the poorhouse.

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TGHusker    1,335

Has anyone found a bullet point summary of the tax bill - on Vox or another site?  If so, can you post it.  I'd like to see a fair explanation - pointing out any benefits of the plan as well as the negatives.  I haven't been able to wrap my mind around it yet - other than corp tax rates may go to 20 or 22% and individual tax benefits may end around 2025 - which is a deception of it helping the middle class. 

Thanks

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RedDenver    1,799
11 minutes ago, TGHusker said:

Has anyone found a bullet point summary of the tax bill - on Vox or another site?  If so, can you post it.  I'd like to see a fair explanation - pointing out any benefits of the plan as well as the negatives.  I haven't been able to wrap my mind around it yet - other than corp tax rates may go to 20 or 22% and individual tax benefits may end around 2025 - which is a deception of it helping the middle class. 

Thanks

Here's a reasoned (I'd say somewhat conservative) take on the tax cuts, but it's an audio recording not a bullet list:

 

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TGHusker    1,335

Thanks Red.  I'll ck it out.

 

Related:  The tax plan isn't helping the repubs.  It is getting the thumbs down in this poll.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/05/the-gop-isnt-getting-a-political-payoff-from-its-tax-plan.html

 

Just as daunting are results showing that most Americans don't buy the core arguments Republicans have offered for their plans. Moreover, debate over the issue has harmed the party's reputation.

Trump and Congressional leaders say the plan will, on average, cut taxes immediately for Americans in every income category. But the Quinnipiac poll shows that three of four Americans, including most Republicans, believe the tax plan will either raise their taxes or not affect their tax bill very much.

Trump and Congressional leaders say they designed their plan to benefit middle-class families. But 64 percent of Americans, including one-quarter of Republicans, say the wealthy will benefit most.

Trump and Congressional leaders argue that their plan will create jobs and boost economic growth. But 53 percent of Americans in the Quinnipiac poll say it won't.

Trump and Congressional leaders insist their tax-cut plan will reduce the national debt, but the top tax experts who advise Congress say it will actually add $1 trillion to the debt. In the poll, 58 percent say they would be less likely to support the plan if they knew it increased the debt.

As a result, consideration of the matter has handed Democrats a fresh advantage over Republicans. In August, Americans split evenly over which party handles tax issues better. Now, Democrats hold an eight-percentage-point edge, 47 percent to 39 percent.

That adds to advantages Democrats already hold as midterm elections approach. Most significant is Trump's historic weakness.

With just 35 percent approval in the new Quinnipiac poll, he is the least popular first-year president since polling began. By two to one – 52 percent to 25 percent – Americans say they feel embarrassed rather than proud that Trump is president.

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QMany    3,006

TGHusker, I enjoy your insight. But I have one request, if I may. When you post a block quote like that, can you use the Quote feature so it is clear. There are some times where I don't know whose words I'm reading, the link above or your thoughts. I think it would just make conversation cleaner and easier. In this instance, I read your entire post, then clicked on the link to see it was half of the article linked. Thank you!

 

And I agree, this planned isn't helping the GOP, Trump, et al. It is unbelievably unpopular. They may be in for an ugly November 2018.

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TGHusker    1,335
15 hours ago, RedDenver said:

Here's a reasoned (I'd say somewhat conservative) take on the tax cuts, but it's an audio recording not a bullet list:

 

Interesting - he calls the congress's effort as "Keystone Cops" type of an effort.  Poorly designed and conceived of and rushed.   Some points I got from it while listening:

1.  They state there is no need for a re-gressive tax policy now to 'stimulate' the economy when the employment rate is high, unemployment very low, and stock market at an all time high.  My concern is actually over stimulation and the growth of inflationary pressures.  Inflation will 'steal away' any small tax benefit that the middle class will get. Inflation is the 'hidden tax' that needs to be worked on IMHO.  Work on reducing deficits & the overall national debt. 

2.  They note that repatriation of money overseas won't occur as promised.   There was a 'repatriation' holiday some years ago and most of the money went back to shareholders and not to new jobs.

3.  Deficits will increase.  

4.  Making investments more attractive will occur they believe.

5. For regular citizens - there is a tax cut for most people - smallest for lower income .03% - Top earners 2.6% tax cut - mainly through 'pass through' business income adjustments.

6. Business expensing will be counter acted by increased deficits in the medium and long term.  Govt will need to borrow more money, which leaves less money for businesses and thus cause the cost of money to rise.

7. Thus we get a short term boast in growth of 1-2% but then it fades back to today's status quo.  Thus a huge amount of effort for no/little long term gain.

8. Winners:  Those with enormous estates - no estate tax. (Do you think Trump likes this???..... they say Trump's family will save up to a billion $$s) Only 4-5000 people would be affected by this estate tax removal - so think the very upper crust.  Trump taking care of his rich buddies.   Top 5% will get the most benefit on a ratio to income- up to $11k

9.  Over time "change CPI" increases will take away the tax benefit for the middle class through bracket creep. 

10. Corporate priorities are highlighted versus things like child tax credit extension

11. Home mortgage deduction is affected negatively while standard deductions go up. Eliminated many deductions - thus itemization on tax forms may fall to 3% and most will take the standard deduction.

 

12

 

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TGHusker    1,335
20 minutes ago, QMany said:

TGHusker, I enjoy your insight. But I have one request, if I may. When you post a block quote like that, can you use the Quote feature so it is clear. There are some times where I don't know whose words I'm reading, the link above or your thoughts. I think it would just make conversation cleaner and easier. In this instance, I read your entire post, then clicked on the link to see it was half of the article linked. Thank you!

 

And I agree, this planned isn't helping the GOP, Trump, et al. It is unbelievably unpopular. They may be in for an ugly November 2018.

Q, how do I use the quote feature on articles like that?

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BigRedBuster    8,066
7 minutes ago, TGHusker said:

Q, how do I use the quote feature on articles like that?

Paste the quote, highlight the quote, then click on the " in the tool bar above.

 
Edited by BigRedBuster

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TGHusker    1,335
1 minute ago, BigRedBuster said:

Paste the quote, highlight the quote, then click on the " in the tool bar above.

Ok let's try it out:

 

 

Quote

 

Coal CEO Robert Murray warns that if the Senate version of tax reform is enacted by President Trump he'll be destroying thousands of coal mining jobs in the process.

"We won't have enough cash flow to exist. It wipes us out," Murray told CNNMoney in an interview on Tuesday.

 

Murray, a fierce supporter of Trump's efforts to revive coal, condemned the Senate bill as a "mockery" that would inflict a devastating tax hike on beleaguered coal mining firms as well as other capital-intensive companies.

 

 

Bravo - it worked.  Simple - I've just failed to ask all of these years.  Thanks Q and BRB.

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TGHusker    1,335
5 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

This is extremely scary.

 

 

Creepy indeed  but I think you posted it to the wrong thread!!

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RedDenver    1,799
1 hour ago, TGHusker said:

Interesting - he calls the congress's effort as "Keystone Cops" type of an effort.  Poorly designed and conceived of and rushed.   Some points I got from it while listening:

1.  They state there is no need for a re-gressive tax policy now to 'stimulate' the economy when the employment rate is high, unemployment very low, and stock market at an all time high.  My concern is actually over stimulation and the growth of inflationary pressures.  Inflation will 'steal away' any small tax benefit that the middle class will get. Inflation is the 'hidden tax' that needs to be worked on IMHO.  Work on reducing deficits & the overall national debt. 

 

5. For regular citizens - there is a tax cut for most people - smallest for lower income .03% - Top earners 2.6% tax cut - mainly through 'pass through' business income adjustments.

 

9.  Over time "change CPI" increases will take away the tax benefit for the middle class through bracket creep. 

 

11. Home mortgage deduction is affected negatively while standard deductions go up. Eliminated many deductions - thus itemization on tax forms may fall to 3% and most will take the standard deduction.

Great post, thanks for taking the time on this one. I wanted to talk about a few of your points.

1. Inflation is a bogeyman from the 1970's. While it's possible we will experience large inflation again, it's looking like the global economies have become almost inflation-proof (and perhaps even headed for long-term deflation like Japan). The best way to see this is the economic stimulus, which poured about $15 trillion (that's trillion with a T) into the global economies (mostly the US and the EU), and there's no inflation to be seen, even almost a decade later.

 

5 and 9 go together. While 5 notes that most people will get some amount of tax cut, 9 shows that it's temporary. Even worse is that while the corporate tax cuts are permanent, the individual tax cuts are only for 8 years, so it's likely that we'll actually be paying even more in taxes due to the change (I thought it was "chained"?) CPI and the tax cuts going away.

 

11. The home mortgage deduction is actually a somewhat progressive tax as it's capped (at $500k, I think?), so it mostly benefits the middle class and lower. However, as TG notes, this is all smoke and mirrors as the standard deduction has gone up and basically eliminates the mortgage deduction for everyone but the rich. So don't buy into the idea that they've put a progressive tax in this thing because they've managed to make it not matter. However, raising the standard deduction is somewhat progressive itself since it helps the middle class more than the rich (but it doesn't really help the poor so not entirely progressive).

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BigRedBuster    8,066
7 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

it's looking like the global economies have become almost inflation-proof

 

When I start reading things like this is typically when you should start worrying about it.

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TGHusker    1,335

Red - you may be right on the 'chained' CPI - I thought I heard 'changed' but my ears aren't what they use to be. 

I agree on the inflation - it is still a bogeyman that haunts me since I lived through the Carter years and it became a bigger bogeyman when republicans in general and radio talk hosts in particular mentioned it in light of the Obama stimulus (How many radio talk hosts were hustling 'buy gold' to combat the run away inflation that surely come?).  However, I do think inflation is under reported.  I believe food and fuel was removed from inflationary numbers during GWB later term or early in Obama's term.  For the middle class those 2 items are huge inflationary pressure points.  My wife and I feel that the groceries cost much more now than they did when we had two hungry boys in the house (but then again, by looks of the growth of my girth - I may have taken on their share also!)

 

Edited by TGHusker

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RedDenver    1,799
24 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

When I start reading things like this is typically when you should start worrying about it.

I don't have an issue with preparing for the unexpected, but the unlikely shouldn't be among the main concerns

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RedDenver    1,799
22 minutes ago, TGHusker said:

Red - you may be right on the 'chained' CPI - I thought I heard 'changed' but my ears aren't what they use to be. 

I agree on the inflation - it is still a bogeyman that haunts me since I lived through the Carter years and it became a bigger bogeyman when republicans in general and radio talk hosts in particular mentioned it in light of the Obama stimulus (How many radio talk hosts were hustling 'buy gold' to combat the run away inflation that surely come?).  However, I do think inflation is under reported.  I believe food and fuel was removed from inflationary numbers during GWB later term or early in Obama's term.  For the middle class those 2 items are huge inflationary pressure points.  My wife and I feel that the groceries cost much more now than they did when we had two hungry boys in the house (but then again, by looks of the growth of my girth - I may have taken on their share also!)

 

Inflation still exists, but it isn't as volatile or as high as it once was.

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TGHusker    1,335
6 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

Inflation still exists, but it isn't as volatile or as high as it once was.

agree

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TGHusker    1,335

Stagnation to Stagflation says Greenspan in this video.  He says Trump did things backwards - should have addressed the debt and deficits before addressing taxes.

He thinks we'll slow down to 2% growth.

very short video

 

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/video/alan-greenspan-were-stagnation-sta-150300893.html

 

and this OPED the author believes a VAT - Value added Tax will be coming to us with the next downturn -

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/national-sales-tax-coming-161144285.html

Edited by TGHusker

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dudeguyy    3,490
58 minutes ago, TGHusker said:

Stagnation to Stagflation says Greenspan in this video.  He says Trump did things backwards - should have addressed the debt and deficits before addressing taxes.

He thinks we'll slow down to 2% growth.

very short video

 

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/video/alan-greenspan-were-stagnation-sta-150300893.html

 

and this OPED the author believes a VAT - Value added Tax will be coming to us with the next downturn -

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/national-sales-tax-coming-161144285.html

 

I'm no economist so someone can correct me if I'm wrong - but doesn't mainstream economic theory dictate reducing the deficit during good times and juicing spending during recessions? This is certainly a tenet of the Keynesian economic theory Obama was fond of.

 

Trump is doing the opposite - this bill will wildly accelerate the deficit unless it is offset by spending cuts elsewhere, which aren't immediately written into the bill.

 

This seems to be a problem caused by governing by rhetoric rather than smart, sound policy. They've prayed at the alter of the almighty tax cut for years. The problem is they're buying their own rhetoric about how great tax cuts are for the economy, point blank, that they're going to do it as much as possible - instead of looking around at Kansas or North Carolina or any other real world trial balloons that don't back up their claims.

 

Whatever. As long as the donors get a tax cut, right?

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Huskerzoo    519
2 hours ago, commando said:

who didn't see this coming?  add 1.5 trillion debt with tax plan...now this

 

 

 

We're also going to work on getting rid of public service loan forgiveness again. Give breaks to the top, take it from the middle and tell them that by doing so it'll trickle down to the middle and they'll have more money.  

 

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/363175-gop-bill-would-eliminate-student-loan-forgiveness-for-those-who-enter#.WidAxF70icM.facebook

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zoogs    6,367

 

 

These "most moderate" Republicans are not necessarily economics illiterate. Not all of them, not across the board. What they are across the board is highly motivated -- either to lie, or to buy in, blissfully unaware. 

 

We keep them in power because we suck. It is a galling failure of representative democracy when the public can't wake up enough to stop pointing the shotgun at our faces and inching our finger towards the trigger.

 

Literally one of the arguments deployed -- by politicians and by the apparatus of the American Right -- for this tax bill is: wasn't Brownback's Kansas experiment a smashing success? Or at least I mean, who's to say? :bang:bang:bang 

Edited by zoogs

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schriznoeder    149
4 hours ago, commando said:

who didn't see this coming?  add 1.5 trillion debt with tax plan...now this

 

 

 The Zombie-Eyed Granny Starver from Janesville can barely control his giddiness. 

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deedsker    333

You mean the GOP is their haste fudged up the very thing they were giving away...:facepalm:

 

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/7/16742046/senate-tax-bill-corporate-amt

 

Quote

But if the AMT remains instead of being repealed, then businesses largely wouldn’t get their effective tax rate any lower than that. The AMT rate is usually substantially lower than the regular rate. But under the Senate bill, the AMT and the new corporate rate would be about the same: 20 percent. Companies would no longer be able to take advantage of tax breaks for research and development and the like. The whole point of the AMT is to eliminate deductions.

“Basically everyone would pay it,” one lobbyist tracking the tax bill told me, adding for emphasis that fixing it would be the No. 1 and No. 2 priority for Republicans now.

 

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RedDenver    1,799
8 hours ago, dudeguyy said:

 

 

This is a whole other level of corruption. Not only can we buy off politicians, but we want a tax break for doing it!

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dudeguyy    3,490

Significant changes being tossed around behind closed doors on the tax bill:

 

 

Quote

Congressional Republicans are in advanced talks to lower the top tax rate for individuals from 39.6 percent to 37 percent as they finalize a massive $1.5 trillion tax package, said three people familiar with the negotiations.

 

The move follows complaints from wealthy taxpayers in New York and elsewhere that their taxes could go up under the legislation because of other changes it makes to the code.

 

The change, if finalized, would amount to a major tax cut for the wealthiest Americans. And it would be certain to spark a furious response from Democrats who are unanimously opposed to the legislation which they already have been casting as a giveaway to corporations and the rich.
 

House and Senate negotiators are working to blend legislation passed separately by each chamber, with the aim of voting on a final package next week and sending it to President Trump to sign before Christmas.
 

Lawmakers are also settling on a corporate rate of 21 percent, higher than the 20 percent corporate rate passed by each chamber, but still a massive decrease from the current 35 percent corporate rate.

And they are moving toward allowing homeowners to deduct interest on mortgages up to $750,000, higher than the $500,000 that the House bill allowed.

 

For me the biggest change is the drop in the top rate, particularly for the reasons stated... "complaints from wealthy taxpayers." I'm sure there are some folks set to benefit from the mortgage interest deduction cap being raised as well.

 

I tend to think the GOP have simpler, more cohesive, more emotionally effective messaging than the Dems. But, boy, are they misreading the room on this tax bill. They're really setting themselves up to be the saviors of the rich and the enemies of everyone else.

 

 

 

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