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** Scott Frost megathread all things SF***


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5 hours ago, girlknowsfootball said:

I know Les Miles is 63yrs old but hear me out. WE need an immediate turn around. Frost is in the first year of a contract with UCF in his first head coaching gig ever. I just don't think he's quite there yet. But bring in a guy like Les Miles who never won fewer than 8 games in his 11 years at LSU. He's won a National Championship. He's had a consistent winning record. He is a good recruiter with a big name kids want to play for. His son plays on the team and he's had a year off to refresh and get ready to coach. Bring in a guy like Miles to keep our current recruits and get this ship turned around. Miles coaches for 4-5 years, retires, and Frost then has the HC experience and slides in. 

 

I think Frost would have a harder time turning this around year 1 and recruiting than a guy like Miles would. 

He also had tons of talent he couldn't win with.  He definitely won't win 8 games with the talent we have now.  Nobody could.

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Again, you base everything on money.  We underpaid Coach Osborne for quite awhile, had offers of more money from Colorado and never left.  Not saying Coach Frost is the same, but apples don't fall far from the tree.  A man is only as good as his word.  Those are words Coach Osborne has lived by.  We will know soon,  I am hoping for the fan base that Coach Frost comes to Nebraska, I can not imagine where it will be if he turned us down.

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5 hours ago, HuskerNation1 said:

 

I agree that Frost would have our current roster performing much better than it is.  He took a UCF team that one ZERO games in 2015...that is right, ZERO games, and now has them performing as a top-20 team.  Last I checked the players who are succeeding on the field this season are not all freshman that he just recruited, and most are with the talent he inherited from the prior staff that won ZERO games in 2015.  

No no no, we have been told that it takes at least 5 years to determine how well a coach is doing. :sarcasm

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6 hours ago, Isle of View said:

Yes, Frost is a great coach.  Watch his pressers and his mic'd up practice sessions and look at his results clear back to his UNI days.  He IS a great coach now and he's only going to get better.

Still speculation at this point. He has to win at the highest level to be great. He looks like he has it but without results, we can't lump him in with the greats.

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14 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

In what sport?

 

And I meant to say was NOT a whole lot.

 

That original throwaway comment was in response to this quote from that top 5 article a few pages back. I guess no one caught the reference.

 

Quote

That said, with Clemson coming off a national title and undefeated yet again in 2017, there will be plenty of knocks at the door.

 

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S&P+ really likes UCF:

Team	        Rec.    2ndO Wins       S&P+	   S&P+	   Rk	Off. S&P+  Rk	Def. S&P+  Rk	ST S&P+	Rk	Prev. Wk Rk	Chg
                         (Diff)     (Percentile) (Margin)
Ohio State	6-1	6.1 (0.1)	99.6%	   29.6	   1	44.2	   3	15.0	   7	0.4	38	1	        0
Alabama	        7-0	6.6 (-0.4)	99.3%	   27.3	   2	38.9	   10	12.0	   1	0.4	35	2	        0
Penn State	6-0	5.5 (-0.5)	97.6%	   22.4	   3	38.0	   13	15.3	   8	-0.3	91	4	        1
Oklahoma State	5-1	5.3 (0.3)	96.7%	   21.0	   4	46.2	   2	24.9	   44	-0.3	90	10	        6
Georgia	        7-0	6.7 (-0.3)	96.6%	   20.8	   5	36.2	   21	16.2	   10	0.8	1	5	        0
Wisconsin	6-0	5.8 (-0.2)	96.4%	   20.6	   6	35.2	   25	14.7	   5	0.1	62	7	        1
Washington	6-1	6.3 (0.3)	96.3%	   20.5	   7	34.3	   27	13.2	   3	-0.6	109	3	        -4
Oklahoma	5-1	5.3 (0.3)	95.7%	   19.6	   8	47.7	   1	27.7	   67	-0.4	93	8	        0
Central Florida	5-0	5.0 (0.0)	94.4%	   18.3	   9	43.6	   4	25.9	   48	0.6	19	24	        15

Ranked #9 overall, #4 offense, #48 defense, #19 special teams

Edited by RedDenver
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Here's a very simplified for why S&P likes UCF.  Some of its principles are based on the Pythagorean theorem, which for sports originated in baseball (like a lot of advanced stats). Simply, it's this:

 

Win%=[(Points Scored)^2]/[(Points Scored)^2 + (Points Allowed)^2]

 

The exponent changes by sport, and is not always universally agreed upon in any particular sport.

 

It's a good second guess metric. This sort of metric shows flaws in a team's record.  The positives for a metric like this is that it is based on scoring margin, which especially in an alternate possession sport like football, is a great predictor. The obvious negative is that it is prone to big results in small sample sizes having lopsided weights. I.E. you play 4 teams, 2 of those being lightweights you manhandle, and 2 being your relative equals. There are ways of working around that, though, with things like SOS filters and capping scores.

 

That's why it likes UCF, they have lopsided scores against all of their opponents. It's also why it likes Ohio State, who despite a loss, has been very impressive in its other showings.

 

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