Last 5 yrs, 115 jobs open, only 7 left a P5 school for a new school

[jessica0]

There have been 115 jobs open the last 5 years. Of those 115 changes, just 7 involved a coach willingly leaving a P5 program and heading to another program. That’s 6% of all coaching changes over the past 5 years.

 

There have been none over the past two cycles, indicating that it’s becoming even more of a rare occurrence as TV coverage and conference dollars have become increasingly more balanced.

 

48 out of the 115 jobs have been P5.  Out of the 48 jobs that opened up, just 6 were a coach leaving a P5 school to go to another P5 school. Two were instances of coaches leaving Wisconsin for what most would view as equal or lesser jobs (Brett Bielema and Gary Anderson). 

Another was Franklin leaving Vandy to go to Penn St. That’s a massive step up, significantly bigger than a step up from VA Tech, Washington, or Ok St to UF. 

Two more were a part of the carousel with Wisconsin. Basically, Mike Riley left Oregon St for Nebraska, a massive step up. Gary Anderson left Wisconsin for Oregon St, a massive and confusing step down. Paul Chryst left Pitt to replace Anderson at Wisconsin, which I view as another massive step up. 

So one time in the past 48 P5 head coaching changes has there been something similar to what many keep acting like would be an easy to accomplish feat - Nebraska hiring away a proven head coach from another P5 school. 

 

I'm not saying Nebraska shouldn't call other P5 coaches, just that it isn't realistic to hold your hope on landing another P5 coach that has won big. If a miracle happened and Nebraska landed Chip Kelly, he is not an employed P5 coach so even a hire like him would still not involve hiring away a proven P5 coach. 

 

Based on that data, what I could see realistic for Nebraska are some following names:

 

Chip Kelly

Scott Frost

Matt Campbell - lower level P5. Would be a major step up. 

Ken Niumatalo

Kyle Whittingham

Bryan Harsin

 

That isn't an exhaustive list, but those are the ones that I came up with without spending a lot of time researching names. 

 

IMO, the university has to push hard to get one of those guys on that list. 

Edited October 20, 2017 by jessica0

[jessica0]

A look at some bigger programs that actually have the ability to even hire another coach from a P5 school. 

 

USC-Carrol (NFL Guy), Kiffen (Tennessee), Sarkisan (Washington), Helton (Hired from within)/That's 3 of 4 that had coached in the NFL or Power 5. 

Texas-Mack Brown (UNC), Charlie Strong (Louisville), Herman (Houston)/That's 2 of 3 from the power 5 without counting Herman who had won a NY6 bowl there. 

OSU-Tressel (Championship winning coach at Youngstown), Meyer (Had last coached at Florida). 1 of 2 had power 5 experience to put it mildly. 

Michigan-Rodriguez (West Virginia), Hoke (SD State), Harbaugh (Stanford, 49ers). 2 of 3 had Group of 5 experience. 

Tennessee- Kiffen (Had last coached the Raiders), Dooley (LT), Butch Jones (Cincy who had a BCS tie-in during his tenure and had won at CMU as well). 2 of 3 had NFL/BCS conference experience. 

Bama-Mike Price (Washington State), Mike Shula (Only hired in light of Price), Saban (Dolphins). Only 2 for 3 because they were caught in a sh*tty situation with Price.

 
LSU-Saban (Mich. St.), Miles (OK State), Orgeron (Hired from within/Had been an SEC HC at Ole Miss). All had Group of 5 experience. 

Auburn-Tuberville (Ole Miss), Chizek (Iowa State), Malzahn (Former OC/Arkansas State). 2 of 3 had Group of 5 experience. 

Penn State-O'Brien (OC Pats), Franklin (Vandy). 1 of 2. 

Notre Dame-Weis (OC Pats), Kelly (Used Cincy's BCS tie-in to get to the Sugar Bowl in 2009). 1 of 2. 

FSU-One hire this century in Fisher was allowed to learn on the job. 

Oklahoma-See above even if not official. 

Miami-Not at the same level as us financially. Despite that they did hire Richt a coach with 2 SEC titles to his name last. 

UCLA-Not the same level of program as us, but despite that Neuheisal (Extensive experience with Washington and Colorado) and Jim Mora (Former NFL HC) make up their last 2 hires. 

Stanford-See UCLA, but were still able to hire Walt Harris away from Pitt (After a BCS appearance), Harbaugh (San Diego or wherever he was) and David Shaw (Hired from within) followed. 

UGA-Both Richt and Smart were considered arguably the best coordinators and top HC prospects at the time of their respective hires. 
Clemson-Dabo (From within)

 

The bottomline is big-time programs hire someone with Group of 5/NFL experience the majority of the time. If they don't, it's because they CHOOSE to go with a coach with outrageous success at a lower level (Think UT with Herman/UF with Meyer), that was promoted from within (Think Shaw, Helton, Dabo), that was already the HCIW (Think Fisher, Riley), had previous ties to the program (Think Malzahn, Hoke), was a giant name assistant at the collegiate level (Think Richt/Smart at UGA), or an NFL assistant that they are convinced can take them where they need to go (Think Weis, O'Brien).

 

 

[jessica0]

Based on the data above in the previous post, let's take another look at my list and put them in order from the most realistic to most unrealistic:

 

1: Scott Frost

2: Chip Kelly

3: Matt Campbell

4: Kyle Whittingham

5: Ken Niumatalo

6: Bryan Harsin  

 

 

 

 

[alwayshusking]

Any chance you want Scott Frost to be hired at Nebraska?

[jessica0]

3 minutes ago, alwayshusking said:

Any chance you want Scott Frost to be hired at Nebraska?

 

That isn't the point of this thread. I'm pointing out how rare and unrealistic it is to expect an AD to poach another P5 coach from a higher level P5 school. I listed Scott Frost as #1 most realistic option since it fits what the data shows - it would be the chose to option (P5 experience as an OC, G5 head coach, alumni). After him it goes to a proven head coach at the college level that isn't at a P5 school. If Chip was at UCLA today, there isn't even a phone call that would be answered. Today it could happen since there is no employment situation at place. After that it is historically normal for a high level P5 program to go and get an NFL guy or a lower level P5 guy, not an elite level P5 guy. 

 

 

[Nebhawk]

I believe Moos will take his time and make the right decision based on what we need.  It may not be a splash hire, but I do believe it will be a good fit hire.  I think we are looking for someone to rebuild the program, and establish our roots once again.  That could be any number of people.  I personally think that person is Frost,  but he may not want this job yet, or ever.  If that is the case, then I am sure there will be a few coaches that will take a look at this job.  Moos brings in some credibility.  That is something we haven't had as an AD for a while or maybe not since Byrne.  

[DrunkOffPunch]

1 hour ago, jessica0 said:

Based on the data above in the previous post, let's take another look at my list and put them in order from the most realistic to most unrealistic:

 

1: Scott Frost

2: Chip Kelly

3: Matt Campbell

4: Kyle Whittingham

5: Ken Niumatalo

6: Bryan Harsin  

 

 

 

 

Wittingham is Mormon. No way he leaves Utah. Niumatalo is also Mormon and turned down the BYU job and a chance to coach his 2 sons. Don't see that happening. Harsin was born in Boise and is an alum there. I don't see him leaving his home and that job security unless money plays a big factor.

[Dansker]

2 hours ago, alwayshusking said:

Any chance you want Scott Frost to be hired at Nebraska?

 

Lol bravo on the derailment and hey, plus 1.

[Dansker]

11 minutes ago, DrunkOffPunch said:

Wittingham is Mormon. No way he leaves Utah. Niumatalo is also Mormon and turned down the BYU job and a chance to coach his 2 sons. Don't see that happening. Harsin was born in Boise and is an alum there. I don't see him leaving his home and that job security unless money plays a big factor.

 

Bronco Mendenhall - Mormon

 

I guess he's not on your short list either. You don't like Mormons, do you?

[Dansker]

2 hours ago, jessica0 said:

 

That isn't the point of this thread. I'm pointing out how rare and unrealistic it is to expect an AD to poach another P5 coach from a higher level P5 school. I listed Scott Frost as #1 most realistic option since it fits what the data shows - it would be the chose to option (P5 experience as an OC, G5 head coach, alumni). After him it goes to a proven head coach at the college level that isn't at a P5 school. If Chip was at UCLA today, there isn't even a phone call that would be answered. Today it could happen since there is no employment situation at place. After that it is historically normal for a high level P5 program to go and get an NFL guy or a lower level P5 guy, not an elite level P5 guy. 

 

 

 

OP, what was the point of the thread? More data that can be searched through in multiple threads on HB?  I've seen and read everything you've referenced throughout many threads already. Like, we get it, ok? The odds of Nebraska landing a current Power 5 HC are slim to none. Tell us something we don't know.

[secretasianman]

Oh my gosh, all the data points to Scott Frost.  Does he know this yet?  He is the chosen one.

[neepster]

37 minutes ago, FTW said:

 

OP, what was the point of the thread? More data that can be searched through in multiple threads on HB?  I've seen and read everything you've referenced throughout many threads already. Like, we get it, ok? The odds of Nebraska landing a current Power 5 HC are slim to none. Tell us something we don't know.

 

Well, I thought the data about how rare it is for a team to steal an existing P5 coach was worth reading.  I think a lot of folks on here have unrealistic expectations as to who we can get (throwing out names like Sabin, etc).... this should help bring the conversation back to something more reasonable.

 

So, OP, I for one appreciated it.

[Dansker]

47 minutes ago, neepster said:

 

Well, I thought the data about how rare it is for a team to steal an existing P5 coach was worth reading.  I think a lot of folks on here have unrealistic expectations as to who we can get (throwing out names like Sabin, etc).... this should help bring the conversation back to something more reasonable.

 

So, OP, I for one appreciated it.

 

Aside from who most fans want, from a realistic standpoint, it may be a coordinator on the up and up i.e. Greg Schiano type. Oklahoma is a pretty good example. They hired Stoops (DC Florida) and he was 2 seconds from getting the job at Iowa but they got cold feet and then he turned OU around.

 

Chip Kelly doesn't make sense to me. I see him going to UCLA or Tennessee. The UCF coach may not leave the talent pool in Florida. I'm seriously thinking our coach gets another year based on his recruiting alone but I think he's gotta get some help on the offensive side of the football.

[Landlord]

5 hours ago, jessica0 said:

Based on that data, what I could see realistic for Nebraska are some following names:

 

Chip Kelly

Scott Frost

Matt Campbell - lower level P5. Would be a major step up. 

Ken Niumatalo

Kyle Whittingham

Bryan Harsin

 

 

Chip Kelly is not realistic in that if he wants to get back into coaching in the college ranks, every big time program will be after him, and he'll go to one where the burden of recruiting and of PR (he hates both) are not as cumbersome.

 

Kyle Whittingham is not realistic in that he's been at Utah for 23 years, his had was a coach at Utah for six years, and his Mormon faith is obviously a pretty big deal. 

 

That leaves the following 'realistic' options:

 

1. Hometown hero with a track record of tremendous success everywhere he's been.

2. A triple option coach who's the winningest coach in Navy's history and has been coaching there since 1995 minus a short stint at UNLV

3. An unknown who maintained the success of his predecessor at Toledo, and is currently at best, slightly above par for the course at Iowa State

4. The third most successful of Boise's last 3 coaches, behind Dan Hawkins, who was abysmal at Colorado

 

COME HOME SCOTT

[Danimal]

3 hours ago, FTW said:

 

Bronco Mendenhall - Mormon

 

I guess he's not on your short list either. You don't like Mormons, do you?

 

I don't see where he implied he didn't like Mormon's, just implied that climbing the coaching ladder may not be the most important thing to either of those coaches.  Mendenhall already made the jump, and to what was a crappy program at that, I think he would be very interested. He did good things at BYU and while his first year at UVA sucked they are really rolling now.  He wouldn't top my list but he'd be a solid hire.