Saunders Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 2017 Game 11 “Expert” Picks: Nebraska at Penn State————— CollegeFootballNews.comhttp://collegefootballnews.com/2017/11/penn-state-vs-nebraska-fearless-prediction-game-preview No, it can’t happen, Penn State. The Nittany Lions would need Ohio State to lose to Illinois and Michigan to get into the Big Ten Championship with an outside shot at the College Football Playoff. But they can cement a nice New Year’s Six spot for the second year in a row by beating Nebraska and Maryland. The team bounced back from the tough losses at Ohio State and Michigan State with a workmanlike win over Rutgers, and now it’s time to close strong. And drive the nail into the coffin of the Mike Riley era. Here’s the crazy thing about Riley’s status with the Huskers: he has two games to turn the narrative completely around. The four losses in the last five games are a wee bit of an issue, and the meltdown against a bad Minnesota team in a 54-21 loss might have been the final straw, but beat Penn State, beat Iowa, go bowling, and the reports of his demise might have been greatly exaggerated. One Reason Why Penn State Will Win Alright, Saquon Barkley. Enough is enough. He’s been excellent, and he’ll end up in New York as a Heisman finalist, but … no. He’s not winning this thing after so many dud rushing games. However, in his final game in State College – of course he’s turning pro; he has to – this is when he goes off. He’s still a touchdown machine, and he’s still an obvious elite talent, but he’s run for 100 yards once in the last six games. And why? Everyone focuses on stopping him first, and he’s getting bottled up. And then Trace McSorley is coming though. Brilliant against Rutgers, he hit 76% of his passes, and other than the three interceptions against Michigan State he’s been sharp. Nebraska’s defense won’t be able to handle Barkley or McSorley. One Reason Why Nebraska Will Win The Penn State offensive line allows way, way too many plays behind the line. Part of that is because defenses sell out to stop No. 26, but Nebraska is third-to-last in the nation in tackles for loss. This is the weekend to bring the house. The Huskers have nothing to lose at this point. They have to hope for one of the quarterbacks to catch fire – Tanner Lee and Patrick O’Brien combined to throw for 311 yards against the Gophers – and they have to keep pressing on both sides of the ball. The O line might have melted down against Minnesota, but overall it’s been fine. It has to give the quarterbacks enough time to work, and it has to hope that this is the day Penn State starts turning the ball over like it did against MSU. It’s going to take a few breaks, and the Huskers have to capitalize on all of them. What’s Going To Happen For men of a certain age, memories of a wonderful back-to-back series in 1981 and 1982 – both Penn State wins – might bring back a few nice moments for the two programs, but one side just isn’t there. Oddly enough, Nebraska is 3-0 against Penn State since joining the Big Ten, and has won the last four in the series. That stops here. It’s uh-oh time for a Husker team that got ripped up for over 400 rushing yards with nine yards per carry against the Gophers. Barkley will go nuts, the offense will go crazy, and in the last home game of the year – on Senior Day Penn State 48 - Nebraska 16 —————BTN.comhttp://btn.com/2017/11/15/polls-its-time-to-pick-your-week-12-big-ten-football-winners-3/ Tom Dienhart: Penn State 45 - Nebraska 23 ————— ESPN FPIhttp://www.espn.com/college-football/game?gameId=400935415 Penn State - 97.0% Win —————Bill Connelly S&P+https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/11/16/16659328/college-football-picks-week-12-2017-predictions-odds-spreads S&P+: Penn State 38 - Nebraska 17 (89% Penn State Win) ————— Athlon Sportshttps://athlonsports.com/college-football/college-football-picks-expert-predictions-every-game-week-12-2017 Steven Lassan: P Mitch Light: P Bryan Fischer: P ————— Daily Nebraskanhttp://www.dailynebraskan.com/sports/football-score-predictions-nebraska-at-penn-state/article_3f77744c-c82c-11e7-87fb-7b1b61272bb1.html Grace Harmon: Penn State 52 - Nebraska 9 Zach Markon: Penn State 66 - Nebraska 9 Anna Gleason: Penn State 56 - Nebraska 6 —————CBSSportshttps://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/features/writers/expert/picks/straight-up/12 Dennis Dodd: P Jerry Palm: P Tom Fornelli: P Chip Patterson: P Barrett Sallee: P Ben Kercheval: P Baron Simmons: P —————AP - Ralph D Russohttp://collegefootball.ap.org/huskermax/article/college-football-picks-playoff-races-break-mismatches Cornhuskers have the worst run defense in the Big Ten. How does that happen? Penn State 42 - Nebraska 14 ———— 1 Quote Link to comment
Saunders Posted November 16, 2017 Author Share Posted November 16, 2017 I can say that in my 10 years of doing this, that this is the most depressing set of picks that I've ever seen. 4 Quote Link to comment
teachercd Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Am I crazy in thinking that the line being under 28 is awesome if you are betting on PSU? I don't think NU has quit...but I think NU has sort of slowed down. If this thing starts off 14-0 PSU...watch out. 1 Quote Link to comment
ladyhawke Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 We haven't had one of those Mike Riley impossible wins this year-maybe that might happen? Yeah, I know-when pigs fly! Quote Link to comment
teachercd Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 8 minutes ago, ladyhawke said: We haven't had one of those Mike Riley impossible wins this year-maybe that might happen? Yeah, I know-when pigs fly! I think that was the Purdue game...heck it might have been the Ark State game. 2 Quote Link to comment
MichiganDad3 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 We could have a shot if Diaco would scrap the passive D and attack all game. Get defenders in the backfield every play. Penn State will hit a few long pass plays, but defenders in the backfield will cause turnovers, and Penn State may even have to punt. What is the over/under for the number of Penn State punts? Is it 0.5? 1 Quote Link to comment
Swiv3D Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 1 minute ago, teachercd said: I think that was the Purdue game...heck it might have been the Ark State game. Was definitely the Rutgers game Quote Link to comment
Xmas32 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 1 hour ago, teachercd said: Am I crazy in thinking that the line being under 28 is awesome if you are betting on PSU? I don't think NU has quit...but I think NU has sort of slowed down. If this thing starts off 14-0 PSU...watch out. Full disclosure, I already bet PSU -26 so I'm obviously a bit biased. Now, 26 points is a lot and unless PSU just beats the absolute brakes off Nebraska, the backdoor cover is a possibility. I could easily see PSU up 35-3 with Nebraska having an opportunity to cover with a 'meaningless' 4q drive. If this was an 11a game I'd be a little more inclined to take Nebraska as the crowd wouldn't be as much of a factor. With the game at 3p CDT, PSU having never beaten NU in Big Ten play and Franklin being a bit of a jerk store I'm thinking 45-10 is in order. I don't think Barkley runs for a ton of yards (75ish) but I do think he kills Nebraska in the receiving game (125+). Quote Link to comment
teachercd Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, Xmas32 said: Full disclosure, I already bet PSU -26 so I'm obviously a bit biased. Now, 26 points is a lot and unless PSU just beats the absolute brakes off Nebraska, the backdoor cover is a possibility. I could easily see PSU up 35-3 with Nebraska having an opportunity to cover with a 'meaningless' 4q drive. If this was an 11a game I'd be a little more inclined to take Nebraska as the crowd wouldn't be as much of a factor. With the game at 3p CDT, PSU having never beaten NU in Big Ten play and Franklin being a bit of a jerk store I'm thinking 45-10 is in order. I don't think Barkley runs for a ton of yards (75ish) but I do think he kills Nebraska in the receiving game (125+). I took PSU as well...I could see that late backdoor cover. The first quarter line is not out yet but I might jump on that too if it is -6.5 Quote Link to comment
Xmas32 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, teachercd said: I took PSU as well...I could see that late backdoor cover. The first quarter line is not out yet but I might jump on that too if it is -6.5 I've never had much luck with 1q lines as I've fallen victim countless times to two meaningless 5 min drives in the 1q as the teams feel each other out. I wish you the best of luck if you decide to pull the trigger. I would imagine the 1H line will be -14.5 or so. Quote Link to comment
teachercd Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, Xmas32 said: I've never had much luck with 1q lines as I've fallen victim countless times to two meaningless 5 min drives in the 1q as the teams feel each other out. I wish you the best of luck if you decide to pull the trigger. I would imagine the 1H line will be -14.5 or so. Yep! I know what you mean. Quote Link to comment
RedSavage Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 30 minutes ago, Xmas32 said: Full disclosure, I already bet PSU -26 so I'm obviously a bit biased. Now, 26 points is a lot and unless PSU just beats the absolute brakes off Nebraska, the backdoor cover is a possibility. I could easily see PSU up 35-3 with Nebraska having an opportunity to cover with a 'meaningless' 4q drive. If this was an 11a game I'd be a little more inclined to take Nebraska as the crowd wouldn't be as much of a factor. With the game at 3p CDT, PSU having never beaten NU in Big Ten play and Franklin being a bit of a jerk store I'm thinking 45-10 is in order. I don't think Barkley runs for a ton of yards (75ish) but I do think he kills Nebraska in the receiving game (125+). No way we contain Barkley. He runs for 150+, easy. I do not see them letting up, at all. They're probably out of the playoff picture no matter what at this point but Barkley might still have a slim chance at the Heisman if he really impresses the next couple weeks. Quote Link to comment
brophog Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 6 minutes ago, RedSavage said: No way we contain Barkley. He runs for 150+, easy. I do not see them letting up, at all. They're probably out of the playoff picture no matter what at this point but Barkley might still have a slim chance at the Heisman if he really impresses the next couple weeks. Nebraska isnt good enough for him to rush for 150. Quote Link to comment
RedSavage Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, brophog said: Nebraska isnt good enough for him to rush for 150. We'll see. I could obviously be wrong but I see him staying in the game far longer than he needs to be on Saturday Quote Link to comment
tyrone_biggums Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 1 hour ago, ladyhawke said: We haven't had one of those Mike Riley impossible wins this year-maybe that might happen? Yeah, I know-when pigs fly! I'm hoping it comes on black Friday. It would be really cathartic. Plus we only ever fire coaches after beating iowa. 1 Quote Link to comment
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