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Saunders

*** 2017 Game 11 "Expert" Picks: Nebraska at Penn State ***

Nebraska at Penn State (-26)  

66 members have voted

  1. 1. Who wins Nebraska at Penn State (-26)?

    • Penn State wins and covers (-26)
      52
    • Penn State wins by multiple scores, doesn't cover
      7
    • Penn State wins by one score
      1
    • Nebraska wins (lol)
      5


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Saunders    6,159

2017 Game 11 “Expert” Picks: Nebraska at Penn State
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CollegeFootballNews.com
http://collegefootballnews.com/2017/11/penn-state-vs-nebraska-fearless-prediction-game-preview

No, it can’t happen, Penn State. The Nittany Lions would need Ohio State to lose to Illinois and Michigan to get into the Big Ten Championship with an outside shot at the College Football Playoff. But they can cement a nice New Year’s Six spot for the second year in a row by beating Nebraska and Maryland. The team bounced back from the tough losses at Ohio State and Michigan State with a workmanlike win over Rutgers, and now it’s time to close strong. And drive the nail into the coffin of the Mike Riley era. Here’s the crazy thing about Riley’s status with the Huskers: he has two games to turn the narrative completely around. The four losses in the last five games are a wee bit of an issue, and the meltdown against a bad Minnesota team in a 54-21 loss might have been the final straw, but beat Penn State, beat Iowa, go bowling, and the reports of his demise might have been greatly exaggerated.

One Reason Why Penn State Will Win
Alright, Saquon Barkley. Enough is enough. He’s been excellent, and he’ll end up in New York as a Heisman finalist, but … no. He’s not winning this thing after so many dud rushing games. However, in his final game in State College – of course he’s turning pro; he has to – this is when he goes off. He’s still a touchdown machine, and he’s still an obvious elite talent, but he’s run for 100 yards once in the last six games. And why? Everyone focuses on stopping him first, and he’s getting bottled up. And then Trace McSorley is coming though. Brilliant against Rutgers, he hit 76% of his passes, and other than the three interceptions against Michigan State he’s been sharp. Nebraska’s defense won’t be able to handle Barkley or McSorley.

One Reason Why Nebraska Will Win
The Penn State offensive line allows way, way too many plays behind the line. Part of that is because defenses sell out to stop No. 26, but Nebraska is third-to-last in the nation in tackles for loss. This is the weekend to bring the house. The Huskers have nothing to lose at this point. They have to hope for one of the quarterbacks to catch fire – Tanner Lee and Patrick O’Brien combined to throw for 311 yards against the Gophers – and they have to keep pressing on both sides of the ball. The O line might have melted down against Minnesota, but overall it’s been fine. It has to give the quarterbacks enough time to work, and it has to hope that this is the day Penn State starts turning the ball over like it did against MSU. It’s going to take a few breaks, and the Huskers have to capitalize on all of them.

What’s Going To Happen
For men of a certain age, memories of a wonderful back-to-back series in 1981 and 1982 – both Penn State wins – might bring back a few nice moments for the two programs, but one side just isn’t there. Oddly enough, Nebraska is 3-0 against Penn State since joining the Big Ten, and has won the last four in the series. That stops here. It’s uh-oh time for a Husker team that got ripped up for over 400 rushing yards with nine yards per carry against the Gophers. Barkley will go nuts, the offense will go crazy, and in the last home game of the year – on Senior Day

Penn State 48 - Nebraska 16
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BTN.com
http://btn.com/2017/11/15/polls-its-time-to-pick-your-week-12-big-ten-football-winners-3/

Tom Dienhart: Penn State 45 - Nebraska 23
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ESPN FPI
http://www.espn.com/college-football/game?gameId=400935415

Penn State - 97.0% Win
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Bill Connelly S&P+
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/11/16/16659328/college-football-picks-week-12-2017-predictions-odds-spreads

S&P+: Penn State 38 - Nebraska 17 (89% Penn State Win)
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Athlon Sports
https://athlonsports.com/college-football/college-football-picks-expert-predictions-every-game-week-12-2017

Steven Lassan: P
Mitch Light: P
Bryan Fischer: P
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Daily Nebraskan
http://www.dailynebraskan.com/sports/football-score-predictions-nebraska-at-penn-state/article_3f77744c-c82c-11e7-87fb-7b1b61272bb1.html

Grace Harmon: Penn State 52 - Nebraska 9
Zach Markon: Penn State 66 - Nebraska 9
Anna Gleason: Penn State 56 - Nebraska 6
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CBSSports
https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/features/writers/expert/picks/straight-up/12

Dennis Dodd: P
Jerry Palm: P
Tom Fornelli: P
Chip Patterson: P
Barrett Sallee: P
Ben Kercheval: P
Baron Simmons: P
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AP - Ralph D Russo
http://collegefootball.ap.org/huskermax/article/college-football-picks-playoff-races-break-mismatches

Cornhuskers have the worst run defense in the Big Ten. How does that happen?

Penn State 42 - Nebraska 14
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teachercd    3,224

Am I crazy in thinking that the line being under 28 is awesome if you are betting on PSU?

 

I don't think NU has quit...but I think NU has sort of slowed down.  If this thing starts off 14-0 PSU...watch out.

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teachercd    3,224
8 minutes ago, ladyhawke said:

We haven't had one of those Mike Riley impossible wins this year-maybe that might happen? Yeah, I know-when pigs fly!

I think that was the Purdue game...heck it might have been the Ark State game.

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MichiganDad3    961

We could have a shot if Diaco would scrap the passive D and attack all game. Get defenders in the backfield every play. Penn State will hit a few long pass plays, but defenders in the backfield will cause turnovers, and Penn State may even have to punt. What is the over/under for the number of Penn State punts? Is it 0.5?

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Husker2019    449
1 minute ago, teachercd said:

I think that was the Purdue game...heck it might have been the Ark State game.

Was definitely the Rutgers game

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Xmas32    398
1 hour ago, teachercd said:

Am I crazy in thinking that the line being under 28 is awesome if you are betting on PSU?

 

I don't think NU has quit...but I think NU has sort of slowed down.  If this thing starts off 14-0 PSU...watch out.

 

Full disclosure, I already bet PSU -26 so I'm obviously a bit biased.  Now, 26 points is a lot and unless PSU just beats the absolute brakes off Nebraska, the backdoor cover is a possibility.  I could easily see PSU up 35-3 with Nebraska having an opportunity to cover with a 'meaningless' 4q drive.  If this was an 11a game I'd be a little more inclined to take Nebraska as the crowd wouldn't be as much of a factor.  With the game at 3p CDT, PSU having never beaten NU in Big Ten play and Franklin being a bit of a jerk store I'm thinking 45-10 is in order.  I don't think Barkley runs for a ton of yards (75ish) but I do think he kills Nebraska in the receiving game (125+).

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teachercd    3,224
5 minutes ago, Xmas32 said:

 

Full disclosure, I already bet PSU -26 so I'm obviously a bit biased.  Now, 26 points is a lot and unless PSU just beats the absolute brakes off Nebraska, the backdoor cover is a possibility.  I could easily see PSU up 35-3 with Nebraska having an opportunity to cover with a 'meaningless' 4q drive.  If this was an 11a game I'd be a little more inclined to take Nebraska as the crowd wouldn't be as much of a factor.  With the game at 3p CDT, PSU having never beaten NU in Big Ten play and Franklin being a bit of a jerk store I'm thinking 45-10 is in order.  I don't think Barkley runs for a ton of yards (75ish) but I do think he kills Nebraska in the receiving game (125+).

I took PSU as well...I could see that late backdoor cover.  The first quarter line is not out yet but I might jump on that too if it is -6.5

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Xmas32    398
3 minutes ago, teachercd said:

I took PSU as well...I could see that late backdoor cover.  The first quarter line is not out yet but I might jump on that too if it is -6.5

 

I've never had much luck with 1q lines as I've fallen victim countless times to two meaningless 5 min drives in the 1q as the teams feel each other out.  I wish you the best of luck if you decide to pull the trigger.  I would imagine the 1H line will be -14.5 or so.

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teachercd    3,224
2 minutes ago, Xmas32 said:

 

I've never had much luck with 1q lines as I've fallen victim countless times to two meaningless 5 min drives in the 1q as the teams feel each other out.  I wish you the best of luck if you decide to pull the trigger.  I would imagine the 1H line will be -14.5 or so.

Yep!  I know what you mean.

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RedSavage    501
30 minutes ago, Xmas32 said:

 

Full disclosure, I already bet PSU -26 so I'm obviously a bit biased.  Now, 26 points is a lot and unless PSU just beats the absolute brakes off Nebraska, the backdoor cover is a possibility.  I could easily see PSU up 35-3 with Nebraska having an opportunity to cover with a 'meaningless' 4q drive.  If this was an 11a game I'd be a little more inclined to take Nebraska as the crowd wouldn't be as much of a factor.  With the game at 3p CDT, PSU having never beaten NU in Big Ten play and Franklin being a bit of a jerk store I'm thinking 45-10 is in order.  I don't think Barkley runs for a ton of yards (75ish) but I do think he kills Nebraska in the receiving game (125+).

No way we contain Barkley.  He runs for 150+, easy.  I do not see them letting up, at all.  They're probably out of the playoff picture no matter what at this point but Barkley might still have a slim chance at the Heisman if he really impresses the next couple weeks.

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brophog    847
6 minutes ago, RedSavage said:

No way we contain Barkley.  He runs for 150+, easy.  I do not see them letting up, at all.  They're probably out of the playoff picture no matter what at this point but Barkley might still have a slim chance at the Heisman if he really impresses the next couple weeks.

 

Nebraska isnt good enough for him to rush for 150.

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RedSavage    501
3 minutes ago, brophog said:

 

Nebraska isnt good enough for him to rush for 150.

We'll see.  I could obviously be wrong but I see him staying in the game far longer than he needs to be on Saturday

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tyrone_biggums    141
1 hour ago, ladyhawke said:

We haven't had one of those Mike Riley impossible wins this year-maybe that might happen? Yeah, I know-when pigs fly!

I'm hoping it comes on black Friday. It would be really cathartic. Plus we only ever fire coaches after beating iowa.

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4skers89    601
2 hours ago, tyrone_biggums said:

I'm hoping it comes on black Friday. It would be really cathartic. Plus we only ever fire coaches after beating iowa.

Well you have to look at where Iowa is as a program. I wonder what Eichorst really meant by that.

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Xmas32    398
3 hours ago, RedSavage said:

No way we contain Barkley.  He runs for 150+, easy.  I do not see them letting up, at all.  They're probably out of the playoff picture no matter what at this point but Barkley might still have a slim chance at the Heisman if he really impresses the next couple weeks.

 

Barkley could quite easy go off rushing-wise.  I think you and I are in the same boat.  We both agree Barkley is going to have a great game, I feel it'll be through the air, you feel like it'll be on the ground.  Ugh, it might be pretty ugly on Saturday.

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Comfortably Numb    5,061
53 minutes ago, 4skers89 said:

Well you have to look at where Iowa is as a program. I wonder what Eichorst really meant by that.

 

We might have to go to the tape and see if he mumbled "with envy" between look and at.

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tyrone_biggums    141
54 minutes ago, 4skers89 said:

Well you have to look at where Iowa is as a program. I wonder what Eichorst really meant by that.

 

He must have saw a program giving eternal contract extensions to a mediocre coach and said, "I want that!"

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4skers89    601
38 minutes ago, Comfortably Numb said:

 

We might have to go to the tape and see if he mumbled "with envy" between look and at.

 

37 minutes ago, tyrone_biggums said:

 

He must have saw a program giving eternal contract extensions to a mediocre coach and said, "I want that!"

I'm starting to wonder if he meant he wanted to be worse than Iowa.

 

I think Zach from DN knows what is coming. I really wish defensive staff changes had been made this week. We needed a defense these last two games.:angry:

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Saunders    6,159
1 hour ago, 4skers89 said:

Well you have to look at where Iowa is as a program. I wonder what Eichorst really meant by that.

Boy, if that's not a candidate for Old Takes Exposed, I don't know what is...

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RedSavage    501
57 minutes ago, Xmas32 said:

 

Barkley could quite easy go off rushing-wise.  I think you and I are in the same boat.  We both agree Barkley is going to have a great game, I feel it'll be through the air, you feel like it'll be on the ground.  Ugh, it might be pretty ugly on Saturday.

Yep, I misread your post:facepalm:.  Saturday is going to be rough.

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5 hours ago, MichiganDad3 said:

We could have a shot if Diaco would scrap the passive D and attack all game. Get defenders in the backfield every play. Penn State will hit a few long pass plays, but defenders in the backfield will cause turnovers, and Penn State may even have to punt. What is the over/under for the number of Penn State punts? Is it 0.5?

That goes against his "Bend and Burst" philosophy.  

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TGHusker    1,335

Ugly to brown bag ugly.   Never thought I'd see the day when the line is that high against NU and deserving so.

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BigRedBuster    8,066

I'm going to somewhat contradict my last post from 19 hours ago.

 

I actually could see this game still being a blowout.  But, not something like 70-10.

 

Everyone, including opposing coaches, know Riley is on his way out in two games.  He is a well respected member of the coaching community.


I could see PSU getting up a few TDs and calling off the dogs.

 

Bigger question, can our defense keep them from scoring even if they call off the dogs?

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GSG    5,897
13 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

Bigger question, can our defense keep them from scoring even if they call off the dogs?

 

NO

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brophog    847

This sounds extremely stupid after last week, but I don't think this is the massive blowout so many think it is. Penn St is just odd. Slow starts, poor rushing days, but generally comfortable wins. I think they win comfortably, but I also think our offense can them a game for a bit.

 

 

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Saunders    6,159
12 hours ago, brophog said:

This sounds extremely stupid after last week, but I don't think this is the massive blowout so many think it is. Penn St is just odd. Slow starts, poor rushing days, but generally comfortable wins. I think they win comfortably, but I also think our offense can them a game for a bit.

 

 

We just let the 119th ranked offense of Minnesota put over 400 yards rushing on us. That's the most they've run for in 12 years.

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brophog    847
31 minutes ago, Saunders said:

We just let the 119th ranked offense of Minnesota put over 400 yards rushing on us. That's the most they've run for in 12 years.

 

Yes, and an Iowa team that gained 66 yards against Wisconsin put almost that many points on Ohio St. Football is strange like that, hence the disclaimers in that previous post. :)

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