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Poll: Who Starts at QB in 2018?


Poll: 2018 Starting QB  

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Every time Tanner Lee is called upon to run, he immediately looks terrified.

 

It's a bad look for your offensive leader. 

 

Gebbia seemed to welcome any open space the defense gave him in the spring game, and ran like a guy who was in control of if and when he took the hit. 

 

That should work. 

 

Then again, every quarterback will look a lot better if they aren't on the same team with the 116th ranked scoring defense.

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7 hours ago, Kiyoat Husker said:

 

Frost's system may very well artificially elevate a QB's accuracy (I'm not agreeing or disagreeing, don't know enough about it), 

 

Accuracy is different than completion percentage, but I can speak on completion percentage, and I'd definitely say no. This offense has a variety of screens and dump offs that aid in high completion percentage, but this is a downfield passing attack. They use the threat of those plays more to control space than as a primary play. Baker Mayfield and McKenzie Milton were 1 and 2 in yards per attempt and completion percentage, and the only 2 that were top ten in both.

 

The offense does result in more open targets, so in that sense it gives more opportunities than an offense like Langs that often only had 2 or 3 receivers out on slow developing routes. You don't have to throw the ball away nearly as much, so obviously that helps in a way. You can clearly see an effect of this in Milton's year to year percentages. 57.7% and 5.9 ypa his first year, 69.2% and 10.2 ypa in his second year. It's practically unheard of to make that kind of jump in the same offense with over 300 attempts both years.  If I were a young QB prospect, I'd want a piece of that action. 

 

 

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11 hours ago, NU5XChamps said:

I am not taking anything away from a 12-0 season, however, we will see how well Milton plays in the bowl game against Auburn.  AAC is nothing like the B1G or SEC, this will be a huge test for Scott and his offensive scheme.  I can’t wait to see his offense in Lincoln, but I think we will learn a lot about the offense and the type of QB he will need here at the Peach Bowl.  With all that said, I voted for a transfer as the starter.  Hopefully, Scott won’t make the same mistake as Riley by trying to adjust his offense around a QB that can’t run it.  Go get what you need now, because all the honeymoon stuff will disappear quickly if they aren’t winning.

 

 

 

Doing badly against Auburn would tell us almost nothing about UCF or Frost's offense. They are facing a team that has far more talent.

Edited by Moiraine
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19 minutes ago, brophog said:

 

Accuracy is different than completion percentage, but I can speak on completion percentage, and I'd definitely say no. This offense has a variety of screens and dump offs that aid in high completion percentage, but this is a downfield passing attack. They use the threat of those plays more to control space than as a primary play. Baker Mayfield and McKenzie Milton were 1 and 2 in yards per attempt and completion percentage, and the only 2 that were top ten in both.

 

The offense does result in more open targets, so in that sense it gives more opportunities than an offense like Langs that often only had 2 or 3 receivers out on slow developing routes. You don't have to throw the ball away nearly as much, so obviously that helps in a way. You can clearly see an effect of this in Milton's year to year percentages. 57.7% and 5.9 ypa his first year, 69.2% and 10.2 ypa in his second year. It's practically unheard of to make that kind of jump in the same offense with over 300 attempts both years.  If I were a young QB prospect, I'd want a piece of that action. 

 

 

 

So would you agree with the statement that "this offense doesn't require super-stud QB's to make it great"?  I would contend that Mariota actually was a "super-stud" coming out of high-school - he was just an unknown, due to playing backup to another D-1 bound QB.  I don't know much about Milton.

 

I disagree with that statement.  Recruiting less-than-accurate QBs that are great runners is not going to make Frost's offense great, IMHO.  As you explained, there is a difference between accuracy and completion percentage.  A QB with poor accuracy isn't going to get more accurate by running this system.  They might get a bump in stats, but wouldn't you rather have the stud (accurate/ athletic/ intangibles) QB?

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32 minutes ago, man eating mastodon said:

Yep,here's your starter unless Gebbia puts some pounds on.

Exactly what I was thinking.  I didn't want to discourage the kid but Gebbia seems small and doesn't have the downfield arm that SF may need in his scheme.  Gebbia is slightly better on the run.  POB has good arm strength and serviceable legs.  I think he is a good bet to start but who knows.

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2 hours ago, Kiyoat Husker said:

 

So would you agree with the statement that "this offense doesn't require super-stud QB's to make it great"?  I would contend that Mariota actually was a "super-stud" coming out of high-school - he was just an unknown, due to playing backup to another D-1 bound QB.  I don't know much about Milton.

 

I disagree with that statement.  Recruiting less-than-accurate QBs that are great runners is not going to make Frost's offense great, IMHO.  As you explained, there is a difference between accuracy and completion percentage.  A QB with poor accuracy isn't going to get more accurate by running this system.  They might get a bump in stats, but wouldn't you rather have the stud (accurate/ athletic/ intangibles) QB?

 

I think everyone would agree there are some players that are better athletes than others and bringing in guys with higher ceilings is better than bringing in those with lower ceilings. I think that's a pretty baseline statement for this sort of discussion.

 

The question in recruiting is often how close to that ceiling are they when they enter your program. That's where it's hard to answer this question on guys like Milton and Mariota. Mariota clearly improved in his time at Oregon, but he was also underrated out of high school. How much of Milton's ability to drop dimes is due to Frost/Verduzco? I don't know. I don't know if I've ever seen that kind of jump in production in one year at this level, with that big of a sample size, in the same offense. Even Frost will say he didn't think that offense will be that good this year. If a fairly significant amount of improvement is coaching, obviously it increases your recruiting options. I know I'm very excited to finally have a QB coach.

 

At the end of the day, this offense expands geometrically with the skills of the QB. I think he needs to be an accurate passer because all that speed at the other positions is wasted if you can't hit them in stride. He needs to be intelligent because there are a lot of reads involved in this offense. Getting rid of the ball quickly is paramount. Finally, and a distance last, is the ability to run the ball in both designed and improvised runs. If he can do all of those and be an electric runner, heaven help the defense.

 

 

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Who ever is the QB needs to be a playmaker.  Thats the bottom line on this discussion.  Completion percentages, 40 yard dash time, and weight gain are irrelevant if a guy can't make a play when you need him too.  Frankly Tanner couldn't make plays when he needed too.  He made plays against 3rd team defenses and likewise talent.  POB really never had a true shot, but didn't see much in his playmaking ability.  You see that factor right away in a player, its not always coached.  If the play has"it" the staff will find them a spot on this roster.  I haven't seen a QB on this roster that has "it", point blank.

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Likewise, I voted for a Freshmen, and thats because I think the staff is here to build something for the long haul, not next season.  They will get a guy who can learn and improve year by year.  I seen a scenario that has us playing for the B1G title in 3 or 4 years.  That won't happen if we just build for next season.  We might have some talent on this roster, but if we play QB's who throw pick 6's, that will demoralize a roster quickly.  2017 season should show that.  

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12 hours ago, brophog said:

At the end of the day, this offense expands geometrically with the skills of the QB. I think he needs to be an accurate passer because all that speed at the other positions is wasted if you can't hit them in stride. He needs to be intelligent because there are a lot of reads involved in this offense. Getting rid of the ball quickly is paramount. Finally, and a distance last, is the ability to run the ball in both designed and improvised runs. If he can do all of those and be an electric runner, heaven help the defense.

I think this is really important. I see a lot of posters making comments that make it seem like all we need is a running QB and Frost's offense is set. But Frost's offense relies on an accurate QB, with running ability not really required but desired.

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13 hours ago, HIHusker said:

Exactly what I was thinking.  I didn't want to discourage the kid but Gebbia seems small and doesn't have the downfield arm that SF may need in his scheme.  Gebbia is slightly better on the run.  POB has good arm strength and serviceable legs.  I think he is a good bet to start but who knows.

 

Numbers are from the beginning of the year: 

 

McKenzie Milton - 5'11, 170

Tristan Gebbia - 6'3, 185

 

If Milton can carry the ball 83 times, then Gebbia can serviceably tote the rock, even if they highly reduce the number of carries from the QB position. He's got the arm, too.

 

Edited by Cdog923
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