Bracketology

[Mavric]

 

[Minnesota_husker]

58 minutes ago, seaofred92 said:

yeeeeeeeup. What I've been saying all along.

Joe Lunardi does not equal the selection committee. 

 

He seems to have a pretty good handle on everything but I think most of us dont assume the Huskers would get in if the season ended today.. We are more banking on them finishing strong with around 22-24 wins to be in the discussion.

[Minnesota_husker]

34 minutes ago, Cdog923 said:

To be fair, Lunardi isn't very good at bracketology, despite it being his only job. 

not so sure about that claim....

 

https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/how-accurate-are-joe-lunardis-bracketology-predictions/

[ScottyIce]

23 minutes ago, Mavric said:

 

Timmy will come unglued if they win 23 games and miss the Tournament. So will I for that matter.

Edited January 31, 2018 by ScottyIce

[Cdog923]

1 hour ago, Minnesota_husker said:

not so sure about that claim....

 

https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/how-accurate-are-joe-lunardis-bracketology-predictions/

 

According to the Bracket Matrix, over the last 5 years, he's ranked 40th. 

 

http://bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

[Minnesota_husker]

1 hour ago, Cdog923 said:

 

According to the Bracket Matrix, over the last 5 years, he's ranked 40th. 

 

http://bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

Interesting system. It is heavily weighted on picking the right seed, but I still disagree with your claim that he isnt good at his job. He is fairly good at picking the field, just not as strong on picking seeds. Our argument is whether or not Nebraska will make it and I think in that case Lunardi is a good resource.

 

I have honestly never heard of 2/3rds of the brackets they have near the top.

[Cdog923]

10 minutes ago, Minnesota_husker said:

Interesting system. It is heavily weighted on picking the right seed, but I still disagree with your claim that he isnt good at his job. He is fairly good at picking the field, just not as strong on picking seeds. Our argument is whether or not Nebraska will make it and I think in that case Lunardi is a good resource.

 

I have honestly never heard of 2/3rds of the brackets they have near the top.

 

You're right; in terms of picking the field, he's very good. Some of his seedings are questionable, though. For instance, he's got Kansas as a #1 right now. 

[Minnesota_husker]

33 minutes ago, Cdog923 said:

 

You're right; in terms of picking the field, he's very good. Some of his seedings are questionable, though. For instance, he's got Kansas as a #1 right now. 

It was a very interesting link and cant say those were one hit wonders, it was 5 years of success.

 

Same theory as guys like Mel Kiper who actually do worse than a lot of other sites in guessing the draft. Those guys are so keyed in you wonder if they are fed misinformation to throw off the trail.

 

That doesnt hold as much weight for the Tournament seeding, you would assume the guy at the biggest network would have more means to know where teams should be seeded.

 

 

[wiuhusker]

Say for arguments sake that Nebraska finishes 4-2 over their last six. That puts them at 21-10 and 12-6 heading into the conference tournament. When was the last time a power 5 team that won 12 conference games was left out of the big dance?

 

Assuming they finished 12-6 you would have to think they get a pretty favorable matchup in the conference tournament to win at least 1 game. Now obviously anything is possible but I can't see them getting left out if they get to 12 wins, especially the way they have looked as of late. 

[seaofred92]

1 hour ago, wiuhusker said:

Say for arguments sake that Nebraska finishes 4-2 over their last six. That puts them at 21-10 and 12-6 heading into the conference tournament. When was the last time a power 5 team that won 12 conference games was left out of the big dance?

 

Assuming they finished 12-6 you would have to think they get a pretty favorable matchup in the conference tournament to win at least 1 game. Now obviously anything is possible but I can't see them getting left out if they get to 12 wins, especially the way they have looked as of late. 

 

from above...

 

On 1/30/2018 at 9:13 PM, Cdog923 said:

 

They still had a comparable RPI, better SOS, and better quality wins. 

 

What about Washington in 2012? Finished with 24 wins overall, won the Pac-12 at 14-4, had an RPI of 54 (comparable) and a SOS of 63, and yet, they lost in the 2nd round of their conference tournament and go left clean out of the Dance. Now, Nebraska has a better win this year (on paper), but the precedent is there to leave a team with Nebraska's resume out. 

 

[Red Five]

I read somewhere (maybe on here) that the committee doesn't focus much on conference record anymore, due to mega conferences and very unbalanced schedules (like the favorable one we have now).

 

[ScottyIce]

23 wins will do the trick.

 

So either 5-1 finish to regular season and a tournament win

or

6-0 and lose to Michigan in B1G Tourney.

or

4-2 finish to regular season and win 2 games in B1G Tourney

[Red Five]

If we win out, it may take car of itself, but I would not count on it.  We also should be cheering for Maryland to win out with the exception of our game and to move into the top 50.  And then a win over Michigan in the B1G tournament.  Those 2 things would give us 3 top 50 Ws.

[HS_Coach_C]

3 hours ago, wiuhusker said:

Say for arguments sake that Nebraska finishes 4-2 over their last six. That puts them at 21-10 and 12-6 heading into the conference tournament. When was the last time a power 5 team that won 12 conference games was left out of the big dance?

 

Assuming they finished 12-6 you would have to think they get a pretty favorable matchup in the conference tournament to win at least 1 game. Now obviously anything is possible but I can't see them getting left out if they get to 12 wins, especially the way they have looked as of late. 

It's not impossible, but I think some people are getting a little too caught up on number of wins.  That is a very small factor that goes into the selections.  Quality wins and RPI are much bigger factors IMO.  Nebraska is severely lacking in those areas right now.  Do I think they can make it? Yes.  Will it be easy? Not at all.

[HS_Coach_C]

Some people are saying since the BIG TEN is a power conference, getting 4th in conference should basically lock up a trip to the dance.  Well, here are some of the bad losses by BIG TEN teams in non-conference games this year that are really hurting the image of the league and the RPI for teams.

 

Purdue < Western Kentucky

Ohio State < Butler, Gonzaga by 27

Michigan State < (none)

Nebraska < St. John's by 23, UCF  --->>> I wish Nebraska could play both of these over right now

Michigan < LSU

Penn State < Texas A&M, NC State, Rider

Indiana < Indiana State, Fort Wayne by 20

Northwestern < Texas Tech by 36, Georgia Tech

Maryland < St. Bonaventure, Syracuse

Wisconsin < Baylor, Temple, Marquette

Minnesota < Arkansas

Iowa < S. Dakota St., Virginia Tech, Iowa St., Louisiana?

Illinois < Wake Forest, UNLV, 

Rutgers < Florida St., Stony Brook, Hartford

 

I know some of these maybe aren't horrible losses, but they sure don't look good either.  I also realize that bad losses happen every year, this year it just seems like there were a lot from top to bottom in the league.  Combine these with a real lack of high quality non-con wins by anyone in the BIG TEN, and you're looking at a 4 bid league, with a real outside shot at 5.