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Tangent Thread - Recruiting Rankings & Predictions Edition

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2 minutes ago, The Murphinator said:

ASU is ahead right now

 

There is literally no way to know this without directly knowing the kid, talking to him, a direct quote from him, anything.

 

All of these "crystal balls" and whatnot are just utter bunk.  Think about it.  How would anyone actually know this without talking to the guy? And if they did, and he told them, why would he tell these recruiting guys but not just tweet it out publicly, or snap it, or whatever?

 

 

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Just now, knapplc said:

 

There is literally no way to know this without directly knowing the kid, talking to him, a direct quote from him, anything.

 

All of these "crystal balls" and whatnot are just utter bunk.  Think about it.  How would anyone actually know this without talking to the guy? And if they did, and he told them, why would he tell these recruiting guys but not just tweet it out publicly, or snap it, or whatever?

 

 

 

These recruiting guys talk to people close to the situation and are pretty accurate. As for why he would not put it on Twitter, he like lots of recruits like to keep people guessing to make their announcement more exciting. 

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2 minutes ago, The Murphinator said:

 

 

These recruiting guys talk to people close to the situation and are pretty accurate. As for why he would not put it on Twitter, he like lots of recruits like to keep people guessing to make their announcement more exciting. 

Witfong is almost always right so just look at his cbs, schaefer is pretty accurate also

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41 minutes ago, The Murphinator said:

 

 

These recruiting guys talk to people close to the situation and are pretty accurate. As for why he would not put it on Twitter, he like lots of recruits like to keep people guessing to make their announcement more exciting. 

 

They're guessing. They don't know these kids, they don't have any sources close to these kids, they just make educated guesses.

 

These guys are no different than the shysters who put together astrology guides.

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8 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

They're guessing. They don't know these kids, they don't have any sources close to these kids, they just make educated guesses.

 

These guys are no different than the shysters who put together astrology guides.

 

You are free to have your own opinion, but experts like Wiltfong are almost always right.

Edited by The Murphinator

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13 minutes ago, The Murphinator said:

 

You are free to have your own opinion, but experts like Wiltfong are almost always right.

 

You really believe Wiltfong has insider contacts with dozens, if not hundreds, of recruits across the nation, almost all of whom have never met him, have no vested interest in him, no connection to him in any way? Or any of these crystal ball guys? 

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Just now, knapplc said:

 

You really believe Wiltfong has insider contacts with dozens, if not hundreds, of recruits across the nation, almost all of whom have never met him, have no vested interest in him, no connection to him in any way? Or any of these crystal ball guys? 

 

Yes, these guys talk all the time with each other.

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12 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

You really believe Wiltfong has insider contacts with dozens, if not hundreds, of recruits across the nation, almost all of whom have never met him, have no vested interest in him, no connection to him in any way? Or any of these crystal ball guys? 

Will you please explain how they're usually correct if they "just guessing?" 

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10 minutes ago, Mavric said:

 

Wiltfong is currently getting more than 91% of his picks correct out of the 363 picks he’s put in for this class.  His average pick is put in five months before the decision is announced.

 

What would be your explaination for being right that often?

 

He puts them under hypnosis and tells them where they will be going. 

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8 hours ago, Mavric said:

 

Wiltfong is currently getting more than 91% of his picks correct out of the 363 picks he’s put in for this class.  His average pick is put in five months before the decision is announced.

 

What would be your explaination for being right that often?

Yeah. There are some BS guys out there of course, but you can’t hit the accuracy he has had by sheer luck

Edited by olddominionhusker

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8 hours ago, Mavric said:

 

Wiltfong is currently getting more than 91% of his picks correct out of the 363 picks he’s put in for this class.  His average pick is put in five months before the decision is announced.

 

What would be your explaination for being right that often?

 

A few options:

 

1.  Wiltfong actually has people connected to each one of the more than 200 top recruits in college football, which changes every year, but all of whom are willing to give a guy who sells recruiting information for a living the real story on what they're going to do with one of the most important decisions of their lives even though they don't know this guy and can't profit from his site.

 

Or

 

2.  Wiltfong is the man in charge of his site's accuracy numbers, he's not super carefully vetted, and he can pick and choose which predictions he uses for his accuracy rating, and he judiciously switches his "crystal ball" predictions at strategic times to keep that accuracy rate high.

 

Or

 

3.  He's perfected the art of guessing, much like a poker player, and can pretty accurately read tells from these kids based on interviews, social media posts, etc.

 

 

I'm sure there are other options.  The option I think is least likely is that he actually knows what these kids are thinking.  Some maybe tell him for whatever reason, and great, for those he actually knows. But he cannot know for all of them, nor can he have actual insider information on anything like 91% of them. So there's guesswork, or strategic switching of predictions, or some other way of hedging his bet. 

 

They've clearly perfected the art of guesswork to such a degree of accuracy that they can predict which team is currently "leading" for a player, they can set it up like a race, even though the kid himself may not know where he's going and/or may not have told anyone where he's going, and turn it into a soap-opera like drama with all the wavering over which team a player will pick, first this one and then that one, thus keeping people entertained without having actual factual information most of the time. 

 

I mean, Kim Jong Un is the world's greatest golfer.  You should see his scorecard. 

 

Just don't ask to check his numbers.

 

 

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8 hours ago, Mavric said:

 

Wiltfong is currently getting more than 91% of his picks correct out of the 363 picks he’s put in for this class.  His average pick is put in five months before the decision is announced.

 

What would be your explaination for being right that often?


In no way is he putting these predictions on avg 5 months out. These kids have no clue where they are even going in that amount time. Does he have connections? 100% That's really all it comes down to. Nothing more or less. 

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7 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

A few options:

 

1.  Wiltfong actually has people connected to each one of the more than 200 top recruits in college football, which changes every year, but all of whom are willing to give a guy who sells recruiting information for a living the real story on what they're going to do with one of the most important decisions of their lives even though they don't know this guy and can't profit from his site.

 

Or

 

2.  Wiltfong is the man in charge of his site's accuracy numbers, he's not super carefully vetted, and he can pick and choose which predictions he uses for his accuracy rating, and he judiciously switches his "crystal ball" predictions at strategic times to keep that accuracy rate high.

 

Or

 

3.  He's perfected the art of guessing, much like a poker player, and can pretty accurately read tells from these kids based on interviews, social media posts, etc.

 

 

I'm sure there are other options.  The option I think is least likely is that he actually knows what these kids are thinking.  Some maybe tell him for whatever reason, and great, for those he actually knows. But he cannot know for all of them, nor can he have actual insider information on anything like 91% of them. So there's guesswork, or strategic switching of predictions, or some other way of hedging his bet. 

 

They've clearly perfected the art of guesswork to such a degree of accuracy that they can predict which team is currently "leading" for a player, they can set it up like a race, even though the kid himself may not know where he's going and/or may not have told anyone where he's going, and turn it into a soap-opera like drama with all the wavering over which team a player will pick, first this one and then that one, thus keeping people entertained without having actual factual information most of the time. 

 

I mean, Kim Jong Un is the world's greatest golfer.  You should see his scorecard. 

 

Just don't ask to check his numbers.

 

 

I don’t have much a of a dog in this fight, but regardless of the how, this guy is still hitting 91% of his picks an average of 5 months ahead of time. I’m sure you are right that he doesn’t have inside info on all of them, but clearly his method is better then random guessing no?

 

 

I guess what im saying is earlier in the thread you basically said these guys are completely throwing darts at a board and know nothing. Others attribute Nostradamus like qualities to them. Isn’t the truth likely somewhere in the middle?

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1 minute ago, olddominionhusker said:

this guy is still hitting 91% of his picks an average of 5 months ahead of time

 

Does it make sense that he has accurate information on 200+ top recruits five months before signing day, when most of them haven't completed their official visits and have no idea where they're going?  Of course not.  He can't know more than the recruits themselves know, and that many kids haven't made a decision that early in the process. 

 

So he's figured out a way to game the system so he looks more accurate.  It's for show. 

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34 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

Does it make sense that he has accurate information on 200+ top recruits five months before signing day, when most of them haven't completed their official visits and have no idea where they're going?  Of course not.  He can't know more than the recruits themselves know, and that many kids haven't made a decision that early in the process. 

 

So he's figured out a way to game the system so he looks more accurate.  It's for show. 

I don't think he has connections with all the recruits, but he probably has a lot of connections within different teams and is able to get a little more insight that way. He can probably talk to members of staff and get some info on what the recruit said to them and things like that. 

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42 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

Does it make sense that he has accurate information on 200+ top recruits five months before signing day, when most of them haven't completed their official visits and have no idea where they're going?  Of course not.  He can't know more than the recruits themselves know, and that many kids haven't made a decision that early in the process. 

 

So he's figured out a way to game the system so he looks more accurate.  It's for show. 

Meh, I don’t really follow these guys well enough so I’ll let Mav argue the validity of his numbers. I just find it hard to believe he randomly guesses, cooks his numbers and no one has thought to verify and call him out on it. Not in 2018 when it seems like everything is so easily fact checked

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A 91% accuracy rate, five months out, is impossible when 91% of the kids haven't made up their minds yet.  Think logically about it. 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, knapplc said:

A 91% accuracy rate, five months out, is impossible when 91% of the kids haven't made up their minds yet.  Think logically about it. 

 

 

Once again, there is a middle ground between 91% and total bunk/random guessing. That’s all I’m saying

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OK, I retract the "utter bunk" statement and agree that there is middle ground between 91% and total bunk/random guessing.

 

We can all get along with our lives now, yes?

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2 minutes ago, knapplc said:

OK, I retract the "utter bunk" statement and agree that there is middle ground between 91% and total bunk/random guessing.

 

We can all get along with our lives now, yes?

So what your saying is you agree Arizona St. is in the lead?

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1 minute ago, olddominionhusker said:

So what your saying is you agree Arizona St. is in the lead?

 

 

 

What does it mean that a team is "in the lead?"  I'm curious about the mechanics of how a team is "in the lead" and how a recruiting agency would know that.

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Just now, knapplc said:

 

 

 

What does it mean that a team is "in the lead?"  I'm curious about the mechanics of how a team is "in the lead" and how a recruiting agency would know that.

Me either. I was joking

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8 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

 

 

What does it mean that a team is "in the lead?"  I'm curious about the mechanics of how a team is "in the lead" and how a recruiting agency would know that.

Well he was super excited after his ASU visit, but it could likely have been just a visit high.  The fact that he's officially visited there and liked it is a lot more than can be said for any other school so far.  Now he very well could end up at ASU, but there's something to say for having the last visit.  Hopefully he makes it this weekend.

Edited by HS_Coach_C

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37 minutes ago, olddominionhusker said:

Sorry I’m in line at DMV. Have literally nothing else to do right now. :)

At the DMV also. Great time killer. Keep it coming guys.

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Yea I'd just as soon pass on this kid. 

 

Anyone who is seriously considering herm Edwards U probably has issues with making educated decisions.

 

Also recruiting rankings are garbage and doing "ok" in an all star game does not immediately make you a guaranteed hit in college.

 

On a final note this is the second time recruiting topics have invaded the football forum this month. Stop it! We got a forum for that!

 

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, husker98 said:

Yea I'd just as soon pass on this kid. 

 

Anyone who is seriously considering herm Edwards U probably has issues with making educated decisions.

 

Also recruiting rankings are garbage

 

 

Pretty much everything in the above is either wrong or a bad idea.

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15 hours ago, The Murphinator said:

 

Yes, if he loves his visit Saturday it is possible. ASU is ahead right now though, so we have to wow him to get him. 

P.S. you should have just put this in his thread.

Nothing says "I'm going to enjoy playing at ASU" like their new leadership model:

 

Quote

The department's New Leadership Model will be similar to an NFL approach using a general manager structure. It's a collaborative approach to managing the ASU football program that includes sport and administrative divisions, which will operate as distinct, but collective units focused on elevating all aspects of Sun Devil Football. This structure will allow the department to form a multi-layered method to the talent evaluation and recruiting processes, increase its emphasis on both student-athlete and coach development and retention, and provide a boost in resource allocation and generation.

 

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12 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

Pretty much everything in the above is either wrong or a bad idea.

 

Perhaps. But what is wrong and a bad idea in your opinion? 

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3 hours ago, husker98 said:

Also recruiting rankings are garbage

This is... wrong.

 

Here are some interesting numbers to chew on in regards to recruiting rankings and this year's Super Bowl. 

 

Quote

This is where arguments that recruiting rankings do not matter go off the rails. What people get confused are recruiting rankings on a micro level vs. recruiting rankings on a macro level. On an individual (micro) level, any player can overcome a low recruiting ranking and make the NFL. It’s a numbers game, and there are WAY more 2- and 3-star recruits than blue-chip prospects. Inevitably, players will outperform their rankings.

 

But on a macro level, recruiting rankings do matter. As the Super Bowl teams show,  4- or 5-star recruits outperform their overall percentages to make the NFL, and by a large amount. There is no debating that a 4- or 5-star recruit has a better shot at making the NFL than a 2- or 3-star recruit, even if there are more 2- and 3-star recruits in the NFL.

 

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Although we will never be able to compete with Herm's new NFL system (pay for play?), as long as he comes on a visit to check us all out ... I feel real good about getting him.  I think he proved at the All-Star game that how he was used benefited him.  This is how he would fit in the Frost offense perfect.  The only thing (which is a big thing) is all those ASU hotties they got.  Dang, just can't compete with that!

Edited by BigRedN

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57 minutes ago, BigRedN said:

Although will never be able to compete with Herm's new NFL system (pay for play?), as long as he comes on a visit to check us all out ... I feel real good about getting him.  I think he proved at the All-Star game that how he was used benefited him.  This is how he would fit in the Frost offense perfect.  The only thing (which is a big thing) is all those ASU hotties they got.  Dang, just can't compete with that!

Many of those ASU hotties will give you something to carry with you your whole life. Isnt ASU STD capital of US? 

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39 minutes ago, Enhance said:

This is just... wrong.

 

Here are some interesting numbers to chew on in regards to recruiting rankings and this year's Super Bowl. 

 

 

 

Curious, I'm guessing your link is the entire roster of the patriots? Because among their starting 22 only 5 were rated a 4 star or higher. 

 

The majority are former three stars. Which means the rest of those other 4 and 5 star guys are sitting behind 3 star guys on the bench.

 

Awkward.

 

Off The top of my head I'm pretty there have been years, hilariously, the huskers had more 4 stars on the field then they did.

 

And less to show for it.

 

Also as a side  note former consensus nobody out of high school Josh Allen is also now considered by some a front runner to go first overall.

 

While 3 star, manning and media darling tanner Lee likely just threw himself out of being drafted.

 

Not saying they don't get it right on some kids. But often times anyone can watch the film and tell you that kid will be special. 

 

We need to stop pretending these stars we put on kids are infallible and truly reflective of their skill.

 

That's how you miss on guys like Amber Abdullah.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, husker98 said:

 

Curious, I'm guessing your link is the entire roster of the patriots? Because among their starting 22 only 5 were rated a 4 star or higher. 

 

The majority are former three stars. Which means the rest of those other 4 and 5 star guys are sitting behind 3 star guys on the bench.

 

Awkward.

 

Off The top of my head I'm pretty there have been years, hilariously, the huskers had more 4 stars on the field then they did.

 

And less to show for it.

 

Also as a side  note former consensus nobody out of high school Josh Allen is also now considered by some a front runner to go first overall.

 

While 3 star, manning and media darling tanner Lee likely just threw himself out of being drafted.

 

Not saying they don't get it right on some kids. But often times anyone can watch the film and tell you that kid will be special. 

 

We need to stop pretending these stars we put on kids are infallible and truly reflective of their skill.

 

That's how you miss on guys like Amber Abdullah.

 

 

Obviously there has to be a balance. Recruiting only 3 stars is how you become Minnesota also.

 

I think coaching and work ethic prove to be of greater importance than star rating. A lot of 3 star guys, like Ameer, have giant chips on their shoulders and out work everyone else.  But if you find an occasional 5 star who wants to be coached and work that hard, that is how you get over the top.  Mixture of the two.

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4 hours ago, husker98 said:

Yea I'd just as soon pass on this kid. 

 

Anyone who is seriously considering herm Edwards U probably has issues with making educated decisions.

 

Also recruiting rankings are garbage and doing "ok" in an all star game does not immediately make you a guaranteed hit in college.

 

On a final note this is the second time recruiting topics have invaded the football forum this month. Stop it! We got a forum for that!

 

 

 

 

 

Herm's a pretty charismatic guy. Players love him. Nfl background...I could see a kid wanting to play for him.

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@husker98Did you read the article or the pull quote I provided? A fair portion of what you just said is contradicted by facts. I'll include the pull quote again and bold the important bit:

 

Quote

This is where arguments that recruiting rankings do not matter go off the rails. What people get confused are recruiting rankings on a micro level vs. recruiting rankings on a macro level. On an individual (micro) level, any player can overcome a low recruiting ranking and make the NFL. It’s a numbers game, and there are WAY more 2- and 3-star recruits than blue-chip prospects. Inevitably, players will outperform their rankings.

 

But on a macro level, recruiting rankings do matter. As the Super Bowl teams show,  4- or 5-star recruits outperform their overall percentages to make the NFL, and by a large amount. There is no debating that a 4- or 5-star recruit has a better shot at making the NFL than a 2- or 3-star recruit, even if there are more 2- and 3-star recruits in the NFL.

 

Also, "we need to stop pretending these stars we put on kids are infallible and truly reflective of their skill" is a straw man. Nobody is saying that. However, somebody (aka you) did just say recruiting rankings are "garbage," which is wholly false.

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52 minutes ago, husker98 said:

 

Curious, I'm guessing your link is the entire roster of the patriots? Because among their starting 22 only 5 were rated a 4 star or higher. 

 

The majority are former three stars. Which means the rest of those other 4 and 5 star guys are sitting behind 3 star guys on the bench.

 

Awkward.

 

Off The top of my head I'm pretty there have been years, hilariously, the huskers had more 4 stars on the field then they did.

 

And less to show for it.

 

Also as a side  note former consensus nobody out of high school Josh Allen is also now considered by some a front runner to go first overall.

 

While 3 star, manning and media darling tanner Lee likely just threw himself out of being drafted.

 

Not saying they don't get it right on some kids. But often times anyone can watch the film and tell you that kid will be special. 

 

We need to stop pretending these stars we put on kids are infallible and truly reflective of their skill.

 

That's how you miss on guys like Amber Abdullah.

 

 

 

 

 

I think you may have ignored the math in the link.

 

There will always be plenty of 3 and 2 stars in the NFL because there are a whole lot more of them. A much higher proportion of 4 and 5 stars make it.

 

 

Here are counts for the 2018 class from SBNation using rivals rankings. Here's some math. You say 5/22 starting patriots are 4+. That's 22.7%

 

 

Using the below players who are 2 stars or higher, 11.7% are 4+ stars.

 

Also, I thought we were talking about college football.

 

 

Quote

Here’s how long their odds are to reach various recruiting ratings, using class of 2018 data from Rivals, if we settle on 300,000 football-playing seniors as a fair estimate:

 

  • 33 five-stars, or 0.01 percent of the class
  • 399 four-stars, or 0.13 percent of the class
  • 1,409 three-stars, or 0.47 percent of the class
  • 1,842 two-stars, or 0.61 percent of the class
  • 296,317 unrated, or 98.77 percent of the class
Edited by Moiraine

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At the end of the day the NFL does not care what "star" you are. 2,3,4,5. I bet they dont know what a star is and dont give a s#!t either. Many kids get overlooked in high school. But the cream rises to the top. So those kids that get overlooked perform in college. The NFL finds them and POOF they get drafted. Stars is not a end all be all by any means. Some kids develop late and some just work harder. I look at it like this- 5 stars appear to have all the tools and you have a higher percentage they will pan out to be a stud. So on down the line- 4 stars maybe less percentage, 3 stars even less, 2 stars even less. Now sometimes those 2 or 3 stars develop late, maybe work harder or just didnt get evaluated or whatever the reason and they are better than many 5 stars. Happens all the time. 

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7 hours ago, knapplc said:

A few options:

 

1.  Wiltfong actually has people connected to each one of the more than 200 top recruits in college football, which changes every year, but all of whom are willing to give a guy who sells recruiting information for a living the real story on what they're going to do with one of the most important decisions of their lives even though they don't know this guy and can't profit from his site.

 

Or

 

2.  Wiltfong is the man in charge of his site's accuracy numbers, he's not super carefully vetted, and he can pick and choose which predictions he uses for his accuracy rating, and he judiciously switches his "crystal ball" predictions at strategic times to keep that accuracy rate high.

 

Or

 

3.  He's perfected the art of guessing, much like a poker player, and can pretty accurately read tells from these kids based on interviews, social media posts, etc.

 

I'm sure there are other options.  The option I think is least likely is that he actually knows what these kids are thinking.  Some maybe tell him for whatever reason, and great, for those he actually knows. But he cannot know for all of them, nor can he have actual insider information on anything like 91% of them. So there's guesswork, or strategic switching of predictions, or some other way of hedging his bet. 

 

They've clearly perfected the art of guesswork to such a degree of accuracy that they can predict which team is currently "leading" for a player, they can set it up like a race, even though the kid himself may not know where he's going and/or may not have told anyone where he's going, and turn it into a soap-opera like drama with all the wavering over which team a player will pick, first this one and then that one, thus keeping people entertained without having actual factual information most of the time. 

 

I mean, Kim Jong Un is the world's greatest golfer.  You should see his scorecard. 

 

Just don't ask to check his numbers.

 

I think you're making a lot of assumptions to fit what you believe/want to believe. 

 

Wiltfong has been doing this for a long time.  It's not nearly as hard to have connections to a lot of these guys as you're trying to make it sound like.  It's call knowing who their high school coach is.  There are still quite a few of those but they don't change nearly as often as the players do.  And it's not just him tracking down all this information.  He works for a company that has hundreds of associates who all spend their entire working days finding out this information from their local school/area and passing it along.  That's hundreds of people who spend all day every day figuring these things out.  I don't think it's very far-fetched to think that they are pretty good at finding out what recruits are thinking.

 

Many recruits may not know 100% which college they are going to attend. But a lot of the time they are definitely more interested in 1-2 schools early on.  When I create a profile for a kid that Nebraska offers, I look at what the Crystal Ball predictions are for that kid.  If there is more than one pick (or a majority) for one school, I put in my pick on our humble little HuskerBoard Predictor to match.  I don't have the exact stats but that prediction is correct far more than it is wrong.  That's because the big-time kids from Florida often go to Florida/FSU/Miami, the big time Texas kids often go to Texas/A&M/Oklahoma and the big time California kids often go to USC/UCLA.  They're already very interested in 1-2 of those schools and there is a very good chance that's where they'll end up.  But they are going to go through the process, check out other schools and take their visits.  But a good number of times they end up at that first school they were interested in.

 

It is far more far-fetched to think he's manipulating the numbers.  His picks are always on display on the web page.  There are dozens of picks right now for uncommitted kids.  If there was a way to export them right now I'd see how he does the rest of the way.  Short of screen-shoting each of the 19 pages worth of picks, I don't see a way to do it.  

 

But I bet he'll be correct on the vast majority of them.

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1 minute ago, Mavric said:

I think you're making a lot of assumptions to fit what you believe/want to believe. 

 

I think you're taking this much seriouser than I am. 

 

Bottom line is, if 75% of kids don't know five months from Signing Day which school they're going to attend,  there's zero chance Wiltfong or any predictor can know where more than that number are going to go. 

 

So either the kids all know where they're going, they disclose it to someone, that solid information gets out to the recruiting guys and only the recruiting guys... OR they're making educated guesses and fudging the numbers to justify the percentage they claim.

 

These are high school kids.  We can believe they, and all of their friends, can keep a secret, or we can believe something else. 

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9 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

I think you're taking this much seriouser than I am. 

 

Bottom line is, if 75% of kids don't know five months from Signing Day which school they're going to attend,  there's zero chance Wiltfong or any predictor can know where more than that number are going to go. 

 

So either the kids all know where they're going, they disclose it to someone, that solid information gets out to the recruiting guys and only the recruiting guys... OR they're making educated guesses and fudging the numbers to justify the percentage they claim.

 

These are high school kids.  We can believe they, and all of their friends, can keep a secret, or we can believe something else. 

 

I just covered this in the above post.  It's a bit of a semantic argument but I DO actually think a lot of kids pretty much know where they're going.  They're not 100% decided yet but they have a favorite that will take a lot to get them to choose something else.

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That sounds reasonable, but if it's that easy, wouldn't all the gurus running recruiting sites be at or above 80% (or so)? 

 

It just seems Wiltfong's numbers are too good to be true.  Plus there's no way anyone can claim a team is "leading" for a kid unless they have inside info from that kid, at which point we go back to the discussion of how well teenagers keep secrets.

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1 hour ago, knapplc said:

That sounds reasonable, but if it's that easy, wouldn't all the gurus running recruiting sites be at or above 80% (or so)? 

 

It just seems Wiltfong's numbers are too good to be true.  Plus there's no way anyone can claim a team is "leading" for a kid unless they have inside info from that kid, at which point we go back to the discussion of how well teenagers keep secrets.

I think many of the guys with lower prediction percentages are homers selling subscriptions. 

 

"I just put a CB for a dynamic player. Sign up to find out who" kind of thing.

 

At the end of the day, Mavric is right.  Most of these kids can be narrowed down to one or two schools simply by geography. Most of their recruiting is simply enjoying being wooed.

 

In all honesty, if we kept track of the accuracy in the recruiting forum on our predictions, I wouldn't be surprised if Mavric or the top point getters push 80%.

Edited by Dr. Strangelove

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My apologies been on the phone all day when typing on here and that can lead to me trying to cut down on what all i would like to say to save fighting spell check which doesnt like half words i use.

 

3 hours ago, Enhance said:

 

@husker98Did you read the article or the pull quote I provided? A fair portion of what you just said is contradicted by facts. I'll include the pull quote again and bold the important bit:

 

 

Also, "we need to stop pretending these stars we put on kids are infallible and truly reflective of their skill" is a straw man. Nobody is saying that. However, somebody (aka you) did just say recruiting rankings are "garbage," which is wholly false.

 

 

I did.

And your wrong everything i wrote is factually backed up. SN nation looked at only the starting line up, in the link i posted, of the Eagles and Patriots. The patriots only start 5 guys rate 4 star or higher.

 

The Eagles are in all likely hood soon to be beaten down by group of guys who were rated 3 stars coming out of high school. That was my point, that you missed, being that highly rated may get you to the league. Neat.

 

 But on the starting line up of the most successful team in America, they are a firm minority.

 

 

It is my personal belief the system is garbage, this belief is based on my personal experiences.

 

When i played high school ball we had a kid rated 2 stars. He never once met with rivals or any other site that gave him that designation. And as i came to find out later in my broadcast career after meeting some of these people, if you don't show at their events or live within a specific radius where they can see you in person you won't be rated higher than a 3 unless some other circumstances arise.

There are simply to many kids, not enough eyes to go see them all. 

 

Which brings me to my final point.  The recruiting services called my 2 star team mate a project player. Our team doesn't game film so................ and no one came to see him.

and he played in every game for all 4 of his years at CSU, and had a chance to continue. But opted not too.

 

Defend all that if you want too but i will call it as i see it.............. Garbage. They have the audacity to categorize and "rate" kids they have never seen, and never will except on aTV or computer monitor. 

 

And as to the bolded part, i could waste my night quoting other posts where people assert kid X is a back up to kid Z because the aforementioned kid is rated 50 spots higher. the personal profiles section in the recruiting forum is full of either that blatant assertion or subtle inclination. That comment was aimed at those people less you, but you jumped on it so there you go, less a straw man, more a real man.  So your are in fact wrong just like i believe you are about recruiting. 

4 hours ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

Also, I thought we were talking about college football.

 

 

 

So did i.

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19 minutes ago, husker98 said:

And your wrong everything i wrote is factually backed up. SN nation looked at only the starting line up, in the link i posted, of the Eagles and Patriots. The patriots only start 5 guys rate 4 star or higher.

 

The Eagles are in all likely hood soon to be beaten down by group of guys who were rated 3 stars coming out of high school. That was my point, that you missed, being that highly rated may get you to the league. Neat.

But on the starting line up of the most successful team in America, they are a firm minority.

 

 

You still aren't understanding the math. They are a firm minority because there are way less of them to begin with. The fact is, 4 & 5 stars are a lot more likely to play in the NFL and a lot more likely to start in the NFL than are 3 stars. Which means the predictions are doing a good job.

 

12% of all ranked players in 2018 are 4 & 5 star (par for the course I believe), but 23% of all starters on the Patriots are 4 & 5 stars.


My comment on talking about college football is that the NFL is not at all relevant in this discussion. The star ratings are used to recruit kids to college. College football is a different game than the NFL. Just look at Tommie Frazier. Or any number of amazing college running backs who did horribly in the NFL.

But since we're doing it I'll continue:

 

Quote

There were 160 first-rounders in that span, and 29 of them were rated as five-star prospects (18 percent) by Rivals.com as high school seniors. That's an impressive ratio, considering FBS schools sign about 2,500 football players each season. There generally are about 30 five-star prospects annually, meaning less than 1.5 percent of the players signed are five-star guys.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000319991/article/where-firstrounders-rated-coming-out-of-high-school

Edited by Moiraine

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