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Frost top 20 class in 2019? Yes, according to the data


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Current head coaches. Transition class vs full cycle. The majority of active head coaches did better with their first full cycle than their transition class. That isn't a surprising stat, but how consistent it is across the country regardless of location and conference gets your attention.

Chances are very good that Frost will bring in a recruiting class that will be in the top 20 for 2019 NSD. If that does happen, it will be +7 average spot improvement (or better) over Riley's classes. Meaning, significantly better talent would be coming to Nebraska.

Steve Addazio 35 (86th to 51st)
Jim Harbaugh 29 (37th to 8th)
Mike Gundy 29 (47th to 18th)
Lovie Smith 27 (73rd to 46th)
Justin Wilcox 27 (70th to 43rd)
Dave Doeren 25 (67th to 51st)
Pat Fitzgerald 24 (71st to 47th)
DJ Durkin 23 (41st to 18th)
Chris Ash 22 (64th to 22nd)
PJ Fleck - 22 (59th to 37th)
Jeff Brohm - 22 (72nd to 50th)
Tom Herman - 22 (25th to 3rd)
Dave Clawson - 16 (67th to 51st)
Pat Narduzzi - 16 (46th to 30th)
Justin Fuente 16 (42nd to 26th)
David Shaw 15 (22nd to 7th)
Tom Allen 14 (62nd to 48th)
David Cutcliffe 13 (67th to 54th)
Larry Fedora 13 (41st to 28th)
Mark Stoops 12 (34th to 22nd)
Bobby Petrino 12 (45th to 33rd)
Chris Petersen 12 (38th to 26th)
Mark Dantonio 11 (53rd to 42nd)
Paul Johnson 10 (51st to 41st)
Mark Richt 10 (22nd to 12th)
James Franklin 10 (24th to 14th)
Matt Rhule 10 (40th to 30th)
Nick Saban 9 (12th to 3rd)
Dabo Swinney 9 (36th to 27th)
Dino Babers 8 (62nd to 54th)
Mike Leach 8 (58th to 50th)
Paul Chryst 6 (41st to 35th)
Kliff Kingsbury 6 (46th to 40th)
Clay Helton 6 (10th to 4th)
Bronco Mendenhall 5 (63rd to 58th)
Dana Holgerson 5 (35th to 30th)
Guz Malzahn 4 (10th to 6th)
Will Muschamp 4 (25th to 21st)
Kirby Smart 3 (6th to 3rd)
Urban Meyer 3 (5th to 2nd)
David Beatty 3 (73rd to 70th)
Matt Campbell 3 (55th to 52nd)
Kyle Wittingham 1 (57th to 56th)
Barry Odom 0 (43rd to 43rd)
Derek Mason -3 (46th to 49th)
Bill Snyder -6 (70th to 76th)
Mike MacIntyre -6 (68th to 74th)
Ed Orgeron -8 (7th to 15th)

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6 minutes ago, Dilly Dilly said:

Would like to see ratings based on the average player rating increase/decrease.  Rankings don't mean much when comparing classes because they aren't apples to apples.  Some teams are higher ranked because of a larger class, etc.  Quality vs quantity would be a better metric, IMHO.

247 takes that into account. This year, USC and Clemson are ranked #4/#6 with only 19 and 17 commits. Notre Dame is at 10 with 27 commits and a .90 average, so you know it is all about quality and not just size.

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Frost does not pay attention to these rankings — at least not very much. As long as he gets the players he wants that fit his system, I will be satisfied that he has gotten great classes. One year it may be ranked #19, and another year it may be ranked #4. Take, for example, of the DBs Frost had gotten in the 2018 class. He sees them as four or five stars. He has said he had gotten one of the best group of dbs in the country. I will take Frost’s word more than the recruiting services. Of course the best determination will be how they do in two or three years.  

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7 hours ago, Pedro G said:

Frost does not pay attention to these rankings — at least not very much. As long as he gets the players he wants that fit his system, I will be satisfied that he has gotten great classes. One year it may be ranked #19, and another year it may be ranked #4. Take, for example, of the DBs Frost had gotten in the 2018 class. He sees them as four or five stars. He has said he had gotten one of the best group of dbs in the country. I will take Frost’s word more than the recruiting services. Of course the best determination will be how they do in two or three years.  

 

It is known he doesn't let star ratings dictate who he recruits and who he has on his board. He has recruited to his system for a while now and knows what works (fits) and what doesn't. That is how he will recruit - fit. At the same time though he is still going to recruit guys that are given 5-stars and 4-stars. The data shows that there is a recruiting bump for almost every coach with their first full cycle. Riley had a bump up in his first full cycle compared to the transition class as well. It is highly likely Frost will as well, just not a major move up in the numbers. 

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On 2/22/2018 at 1:47 AM, Pedro G said:

Frost does not pay attention to these rankings — at least not very much. As long as he gets the players he wants that fit his system, I will be satisfied that he has gotten great classes. One year it may be ranked #19, and another year it may be ranked #4. Take, for example, of the DBs Frost had gotten in the 2018 class. He sees them as four or five stars. He has said he had gotten one of the best group of dbs in the country. I will take Frost’s word more than the recruiting services. Of course the best determination will be how they do in two or three years.  

 

And I guarantee that if Nebraska starts playing and winning at an elite level, the average yearly class ranking will rise substantially into top 10 or better.

 

Consistently great performances on the field inexorably lead to higher team recruiting rankings as poor team performance leads to lower rankings.  The two go hand in hand.  It's an absurd way recruiting analysts game the system to show that their rankings matter.  Truth is, recruiting rankings are just a guess/opinion and they are easily manipulated.  

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