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ScottyIce

2018-19 Schedule

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So. We have to get this fixed for next year. We can’t not make the tournament because we don’t go 5-1 or undefeated in our only chances.

 

I think the B1G will fix things from there end, but we can do some things too. Here is what is set.

 

20 B1G Games

vs Creighton

 USC/Texas Tech/Missouri St (2 of)

vs 2 other low level teams in conjunction with KC tourney(will hurt SOS)

@ ACC/B1G Challenge (Hopefully someone Top75 RPI So it’s a Quad 1)

 vs Gavett Games (Hopefully Nova or Xavier)

 

This leaves 4 available games:

I would recommend trying to re-up with Kansas, possibly something with Witchita State.

I also wouldn’t be opposed to going to SD to play either the Yotes or the Jacks. Both will be solid next year, possibly both top 75 RPI for road games to equal quad 1 win.

 

We can’t schedule cupcakes. Play D2 schools instead so they don’t crush our strength of schedule.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by ScottyIce

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thanks for starting this. Below are some teams I would like to see Nebraska schedule H/H series with that are realistic and also challenging: 

 

St. Mary's

Rhode Island

Houston

Wichita State

Kansas 

Kansas State

Iowa St

Missouri

St. Louis

USC

SMU

Tulsa

Auburn

Alabama

Northern Iowa 

Illinois St

Loyola (Chicago) 

Middle Tennessee St

 

teams that are buy games I'd like to see: 

 

South Dakota

South Dakota State

Montana 

North Dakota 

FGCU 

Charleston 

Davidson 

GA State

ULL 

Tulane

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It's pretty simple, you have to schedule enough good teams to give yourself the opportunity but then you also have to seize the opportunity when it comes around. Our problem this year was a lack of both opportunity and seizing it. It's pretty telling that the best or second best Nebraska bball team in the last 20 years only warranted a 5 seed in the NIT. That says more about our basketball program than it does about any little disparities in the seeding. There's a reason we are the only D1 team to never win a tourney game, we're just not at the needed level. I hope that changes but it's been that way my whole life. I'm not going to hold my breath.

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Pretty much any school in the American would be a good h/h. One of the things Wichita St did was to do neutral site games with both Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. Granted the neutral site was basically a home game for one school it wasnt an on campus game.

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10 minutes ago, PaulCrewe said:

The cupcakes may be needed next year to increase the season win total though.

 New goal is 18-13 with 6 Q1 wins. That’s all it takes boys.

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9 minutes ago, desertshox said:

Pretty much any school in the American would be a good h/h. One of the things Wichita St did was to do neutral site games with both Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. Granted the neutral site was basically a home game for one school it wasnt an on campus game.

Which means it just needs to be a top 50 RPI opponent for Q1 win?

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1 hour ago, ScottyIce said:

So. We have to get this fixed for next year. We can’t not make the tournament because we don’t go 5-1 or undefeated in our only chances.

 

I think the B1G will fix things from there end, but we can do some things too. Here is what is set.

 

20 B1G Games

vs Creighton

 USC/Texas Tech/Missouri St (2 of)

vs 2 other low level teams in conjunction with KC tourney(will hurt SOS)

@ ACC/B1G Challenge (Hopefully someone Top75 RPI So it’s a Quad 1)

 vs Gavett Games (Hopefully Nova or Xavier)

 

This leaves 4 available games:

I would recommend trying to re-up with Kansas, possibly something with Witchita State.

I also wouldn’t be opposed to going to SD to play either the Yotes or the Jacks. Both will be solid next year, possibly both top 75 RPI for road games to equal quad 1 win.

 

We can’t schedule cupcakes. Play D2 schools instead so they don’t crush our strength of schedule.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unlikely that we play Nova since we've played them already as part of the Gavitt games. Should be a home game since we've played twice in the games and they've both been road games.

 

Probably won't play South Dakota since their coach is a former Miles assistant.

 

Might be able to get a H/H with a former Big 8 school, but probably not KU. KSU or ISU seem like the most likely.

Edited by ECisGod

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A good idea is schedule one or two Big Twelve teams. That way we most likely go 1-1 against them and get a great win and a great loss, and the committee will reward us for trying like those teams do in conference. 

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3 hours ago, ScottyIce said:

I think the B1G will fix things from there end, but we can do some things too.

 

 

Yeah, like finish out games and win, and not choke during big time games? 

 

We’re really overthinking this s***. As said by all sorts of pundits, if we beat Kansas and Creighton, we’re discussing if we’ll win our first Round of 64 game.

 

The question we should be wondering is if Moos is buying whether Miles can improve the team next year or if he’ll decide Miles has hit his ceiling at Nebraska. 

 

 

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6 hours ago, VectorVictor said:

 

Yeah, like finish out games and win, and not choke during big time games? 

 

We’re really overthinking this s***. As said by all sorts of pundits, if we beat Kansas and Creighton, we’re discussing if we’ll win our first Round of 64 game.

 

The question we should be wondering is if Moos is buying whether Miles can improve the team next year or if he’ll decide Miles has hit his ceiling at Nebraska. 

 

 

Well said. If we’re 3-4, instead of 1-6, against RPI Top 50 - we’re more than likely in. But it’s a lot easier for people to stomp their feet at the fact that we won 23 games and didn’t make it. 

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The cupcakes need to be in the 150-250 range.  Playing multiple teams in the 250-350 range kills your RPI and SOS.  This year we played the 261, 323, 325, and 351 teams.  Move each of those teams up 100-150 spots and our RPI is probably 10 spots better.

 

Other conferences/teams have figured out how to game the system.  Its time that Delany gets the B1G playing the same game as everyone else.

Edited by Red Five

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8 hours ago, VectorVictor said:

 

Yeah, like finish out games and win, and not choke during big time games? 

 

We’re really overthinking this s***. As said by all sorts of pundits, if we beat Kansas and Creighton, we’re discussing if we’ll win our first Round of 64 game.

 

The question we should be wondering is if Moos is buying whether Miles can improve the team next year or if he’ll decide Miles has hit his ceiling at Nebraska. 

 

 

You're wrong. Even if we beat Kansas we were still on outside looking in.

 

We seriously only had 5 games we lost(Kansas, Creighton, MSU, Purdue, Ohio State) on our schedule that could've moved the needle, and we would've needed 3 out of 5 to be wins.

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1 hour ago, ScottyIce said:

You're wrong. Even if we beat Kansas we were still on outside looking in.

 

We seriously only had 5 games we lost(Kansas, Creighton, MSU, Purdue, Ohio State) on our schedule that could've moved the needle, and we would've needed 3 out of 5 to be wins.

 

Most of the NCAA Tourney prognosticators have suggested otherwise, and Oklahoma's admittance to the tournament by virtue of early season triumphs overshadowing their horrible slide during conference play suggests you're in the wrong. 

 

And again, the focus shouldn't be on the schedule--let's worry about whether or not we have the coaching staff in place to succeed, *THEN* we can worry about scheduling. This thread is putting the cart before the horse. 

Edited by VectorVictor

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7 minutes ago, VectorVictor said:

 

Most of the NCAA Tourney prognosticators have suggested otherwise, and Oklahoma's admittance to the tournament by virtue of early season triumphs overshadowing their horrible slide during conference play suggests you're in the wrong. 

 

And again, the focus shouldn't be on the schedule--let's worry about whether or not we have the coaching staff in place to succeed, *THEN* we can worry about scheduling. This thread is putting the cart before the horse. 

Those prognosticators obviously weren't close, as Nebraska is an NIT 5 seed.  One more win was not getting them in, no matter who they beat.

 

I don't know if Miles can get this team over the hump, but if you think he's getting fired after this year I think you're delusional.

 

If they have a poor year next year, by all means fire him.  But coming off one of the better years in NEB bball history, Moos would have a hard time justifying letting him go.

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Nebraska has several people that are in their sports analytics department now.

 

I think they should have them analyze the metrics used by the NCAA committee, and then analyze other teams to find good matchups for NEB that they could win and also get higher numbers for the committee to look at.

 

Other teams are obviously doing this and some are doing it well.  It's the system that is in place - take advantage of it.

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I get that Kansas is next door and a fun game to play - brings back memories of BIG8.  But that is a tough win and probably most years makes the Q1 record look worse with an L 85% of the time.  We need to schedule more non-conf games against teams in the 40-80 range hoping that we get plenty of wins and enough of those games end up as Q1 games and the rest are Q2.  The first step to all this is having a team that can compete with teams ranked 40-80 and i feel we are there.

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2 hours ago, GBRFAN said:

I get that Kansas is next door and a fun game to play - brings back memories of BIG8.  But that is a tough win and probably most years makes the Q1 record look worse with an L 85% of the time.  We need to schedule more non-conf games against teams in the 40-80 range hoping that we get plenty of wins and enough of those games end up as Q1 games and the rest are Q2.  The first step to all this is having a team that can compete with teams ranked 40-80 and i feel we are there.

You're not wrong.

We need to find the matchups Coach C was just suggesting.

I really strongly suggest the SDSU & USD series on the road. It's going to be a Q1 -Q2 Win against one of them each year. (if we beat them that is)

Edited by ScottyIce

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8 hours ago, HS_Coach_C said:

Nebraska has several people that are in their sports analytics department now.

 

I think they should have them analyze the metrics used by the NCAA committee, and then analyze other teams to find good matchups for NEB that they could win and also get higher numbers for the committee to look at.

 

Other teams are obviously doing this and some are doing it well.  It's the system that is in place - take advantage of it.

 

Great points - with a solid $$$ situation between BigTen and selling out our top 2 men's sports we need to entice these teams to play at the Bank.  Wondering how easy of a sell it is to get these teams here with the home record that we had this year???

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1 hour ago, GBRFAN said:

 

Great points - with a solid $$$ situation between BigTen and selling out our top 2 men's sports we need to entice these teams to play at the Bank.  Wondering how easy of a sell it is to get these teams here with the home record that we had this year???

I think you find some that are pay games at the Bank, but I think we need some home and homes too. Road games are easier to get quad 1 wins as well. A home win over a team with an RPI of 25 is equal to a road win over a team with an RPI of 75.

Edited by HS_Coach_C

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12 hours ago, Red Five said:

The cupcakes need to be in the 150-250 range.  Playing multiple teams in the 250-350 range kills your RPI and SOS.  This year we played the 261, 323, 325, and 351 teams.  Move each of those teams up 100-150 spots and our RPI is probably 10 spots better.

 

Other conferences/teams have figured out how to game the system.  Its time that Delany gets the B1G playing the same game as everyone else.

 

This may be dumb as hell, but its a brainstorm.  I wonder if you could work the system something like a deal with UNO at Baxter to split the gate 50/50 or something so even a 200+ RPI wouldn't have the same hit b/c its technically a road game.  Heck if UNO could be a little better and get above 240 a road game would be a Quad 3 win.  Just thinking outside the box.

 

You are generally right though.  Avoid the MEAC and SWAC at all costs.  Those conferences are god awful and we are loads better filling buy games with Summit level teams.  Getting Valley teams might need to do a 2-1 deal with them to get them in the house.  I think Xavier played @Northern Iowa this year and North Carolina went in there and lost a few years ago.  Its a risk, but they are obviously going to reward teams that take risks.

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Need to find a home/home series with someone big enough where it's a Q1 Win at home as well as on the road.

An easy way to pick up Q1 wins would be to go to SDSU & USD for games next year. They are both going to be solid top 100 RPI schools at minimum.

 

My questions is how many home games do we typically give the Season Ticket Holders? 15?

 

Because next year, Home dates are.... 10 B1G, 1 Gavett Games(should be), Creighton, 2 lower level opponents that coincide with the KC Tournament. That is 14 already.

Edited by ScottyIce

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I think they should specifically try to schedule more games with former B12 teams, it’s hurting Nebraska more than it’s hurting the former members by not playing more often. Geographically, competitively, recruiting and a renewed rivalry, it’s a win all around. I’m glad we broke through with a Kansas matchup, maybe fit in a couple matchups each year, one home and one away?

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1 minute ago, Savage Husker said:

I think they should specifically try to schedule more games with former B12 teams, it’s hurting Nebraska more than it’s hurting the former members by not playing more often. Geographically, competitively, recruiting and a renewed rivalry, it’s a win all around. I’m glad we broke through with a Kansas matchup, maybe fit in a couple matchups each year, one home and one away?

I approve.

 

Additional to that, I stand by my recommendation that we goto SDSU or USD for that Quad 1 win.

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Beating teams like UCF in these tournaments to get your shot at the big boys would be a start.

 

Next schedule some higher tier cupcakes. 

 

Finally actually win 2-3 premier/equal talent non-con games. I'm ashamed of our non-con win list.  

 

 

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Just schedule all the teams in the SEC or B12... That worked for other teams getting in by beating mediocre teams who everyone thinks are good.

 

 

I think Miles scheduled softer this year because he didnt know what the team would look like. The fact the B1G didnt help solve that was what did us in.

 

But according to the Committee we would be better to schedule super tough and then coast.

 

 

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2 hours ago, ScottyIce said:

Need to find a home/home series with someone big enough where it's a Q1 Win at home as well as on the road.

An easy way to pick up Q1 wins would be to go to SDSU & USD for games next year. They are both going to be solid top 100 RPI schools at minimum.

 

My questions is how many home games do we typically give the Season Ticket Holders? 15?

 

Because next year, Home dates are.... 10 B1G, 1 Gavett Games(should be), Creighton, 2 lower level opponents that coincide with the KC Tournament. That is 14 already.

 

The last five years NEB had 17, 16, 18, 16, & 16 home games.

 

We had 31 games before the conference tournament this year.  If you shoot for 31 next year with 17 home games:

20 Big Ten games (10 at home)

1 Gavitt Games (home)

1 Creighton (home)

4 CBE KC Tourney (2 home)

1 Big Ten/ACC challenge

4 TBD (3 home)

 

Non conference we should already have 5 quality opponents scheduled.  If we could get at least 1 or 2 more in the 4 TBD games, that'd be great.

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3 hours ago, Warrior10 said:

Beating teams like UCF in these tournaments to get your shot at the big boys would be a start.

 

Next schedule some higher tier cupcakes. 

 

Finally actually win 2-3 premier/equal talent non-con games. I'm ashamed of our non-con win list.  

 

 

 

UCF was actually decent at the beginning of the year. they were viewed as a possible tourney team before the season.

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Part of the problem with this year's schedule is that teams like North Texas, North Dakota & UTSA weren't as good as expected.  North Texas & UTSA were expected to be among the better teams in Conference USA, but wound up more middle of the pack.  North Dakota won the Big Sky last year but was near the bottom of the conference this year. 

 

I've seen several suggestions that we play USD or SDSU next year, but it's kind of a crap shoot when you schedule teams from mid major conferences.  If Mike Daum gets injured or transfers as a grad transfer (he said he wouldn't before the season), SDSU won't be a very good team.  I would be shocked if we scheduled USD since Smith is a former Miles assistant.

3 minutes ago, desertshox said:

 

UCF was actually decent at the beginning of the year. they were viewed as a possible tourney team before the season.

UCF had multiple injuries to starters including 7'6" Tacko Fall.

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1 hour ago, desertshox said:

 

UCF was actually decent at the beginning of the year. they were viewed as a possible tourney team before the season.

Then see my third point. Actually beat them, or St John's, or Creighton, or KU.

Edited by Warrior10

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1 hour ago, ECisGod said:

Part of the problem with this year's schedule is that teams like North Texas, North Dakota & UTSA weren't as good as expected.  North Texas & UTSA were expected to be among the better teams in Conference USA, but wound up more middle of the pack.  North Dakota won the Big Sky last year but was near the bottom of the conference this year. 

 

I've seen several suggestions that we play USD or SDSU next year, but it's kind of a crap shoot when you schedule teams from mid major conferences.  If Mike Daum gets injured or transfers as a grad transfer (he said he wouldn't before the season), SDSU won't be a very good team.  I would be shocked if we scheduled USD since Smith is a former Miles assistant.

UCF had multiple injuries to starters including 7'6" Tacko Fall.

Why do people keep thinking we wouldn't play USD because of Smith and Miles relationship? We just played them last year when Smith was HC.

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20 hours ago, HS_Coach_C said:

I think you find some that are pay games at the Bank, but I think we need some home and homes too. Road games are easier to get quad 1 wins as well. A home win over a team with an RPI of 25 is equal to a road win over a team with an RPI of 75.

 

Thanks for your input in this the thread over the past 10 days -  Some good work!!!

Edited by GBRFAN

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7 minutes ago, Warrior10 said:

Why do people keep thinking we wouldn't play USD because of Smith and Miles relationship? We just played them last year when Smith was HC.

Somehow I forgot about that.  I'm sure I was at the game since I have season tickets and rarely miss games.  Most head coaches don't want to play former assistants, especially ones that were with them for a long time. That said, I have no idea what USD has coming back next year to make a decent decision on how good the game would be from an RPI/metrics standpoint.

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1 hour ago, Warrior10 said:

Then see my third point. Actually beat them, or St John's, or Creighton, or KU.

 

And that falls into the flaw in the selection for the tourney. UCF was returning a lot of their team Nebraska wasnt. They had a better idea of their pieces. Teams with high turnover are figuring things out.

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2 hours ago, ECisGod said:

Somehow I forgot about that.  I'm sure I was at the game since I have season tickets and rarely miss games.  Most head coaches don't want to play former assistants, especially ones that were with them for a long time. That said, I have no idea what USD has coming back next year to make a decent decision on how good the game would be from an RPI/metrics standpoint.

USD will be good again. Young squad. Best player will be senior.

 

SDSU also will be good. Daum will be a senior.

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3 hours ago, teachercd said:

Big Ten will look different next year.  It will be stronger and 13 wins will be much more difficult to get.   

This is probably the biggest factor. I expect Iowa, Maryland and Wisky to be back to tournament caliber teams. 

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16 hours ago, desertshox said:

 

And that falls into the flaw in the selection for the tourney. UCF was returning a lot of their team Nebraska wasnt. They had a better idea of their pieces. Teams with high turnover are figuring things out.

More just an unfortunate situation for us, but we like to make excuses.

 

It's more of a trend than an exception....

 

Non-con results against teams of similar-better talent:

 

2017:

Wins: Boston College

Losses: St. John's, UCF, Creighton, KU

 

2016:

Wins: Dayton

Losses: UCLA, VaTech, Clemson, Creighton, KU

*Terrible loss to Gardner-Webb

 

2015: 

Wins: Tennessee, Rhode Island 

Losses: Nova, Cincy, Miami, Creighton

 

2014:

Wins: Florida St, Cincy

Losses: Rhode Island, Creighton

*Terrible losses to Incarnate Word and Hawai'i. 

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1 minute ago, teachercd said:

Ha...Isn't he graduating?  

 

He will be a RS SR next year.

 

I just thought it was funny...

How would the Bulls be without Jordan?

How would the Cavs be without Lebron?

How would the Lakers be without Kobe?

 

Anytime a team loses their best player due to injury, they struggle to some degree without them.

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2 minutes ago, ScottyIce said:

 

He will be a RS SR next year.

 

I just thought it was funny...

How would the Bulls be without Jordan?

How would the Cavs be without Lebron?

How would the Lakers be without Kobe?

 

Anytime a team loses their best player due to injury, they struggle to some degree without them.

 

so often the point goes by you. you can get the same rpi boost by scheduling a team that doesnt have a player capable of beating then going down for the year after that game.

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8 minutes ago, desertshox said:

 

so often the point goes by you. you can get the same rpi boost by scheduling a team that doesnt have a player capable of beating then going down for the year after that game.

Wow. I thought I was taking it too far.

 

So now, we are scheduling to avoid players getting injured? Good gracious. Well, There goes about 50 teams we CAN'T schedule, because they might have their best player get hurt.

Sidenote: ANYONE and EVERYONE can get injured, however, I don't believe Daum has missed a game yet during his career due to injury.

Edited by ScottyIce

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1 hour ago, Warrior10 said:

More just an unfortunate situation for us, but we like to make excuses.

 

 

 

i'm not making excuses though. nebraska had 2 unfortunate situations that help illustrate the flaws in the new system. they beat a minnesota team that most likely would have been in the tourney then minnesota went through what they went through. valuing every game they are going to have to look at each and every variable for every game played.

 

guess i just really dont like the new system. and it didnt really affect the team i follow the most.

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9 minutes ago, ScottyIce said:

Wow. I thought I was taking it too far.

 

So now, we are scheduling to avoid players getting injured? Good gracious. Well, There goes about 50 teams we CAN'T schedule, because they might have their best player get hurt.

Sidenote: ANYONE and EVERYONE can get injured, however, I don't believe Daum has missed a game yet during his career due to injury.

 

did i say to schedule to avoid players getting injured? think the gist was there were better options.

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28 minutes ago, desertshox said:

 

i'm not making excuses though. nebraska had 2 unfortunate situations that help illustrate the flaws in the new system. they beat a minnesota team that most likely would have been in the tourney then minnesota went through what they went through. valuing every game they are going to have to look at each and every variable for every game played.

 

guess i just really dont like the new system. and it didnt really affect the team i follow the most.

I'd think we probably aren't the only team that had an unfortunate situation.  

 

One game did not effect us being "in" or "out".

 

I think the system did a decent job. I think I'd of had OklaSt, USC, or ND in over ASU/Okla... but not by much. I could also think of unfortunate situations for OklaSt, USC and ND that could be made into arguements just likes folks are trying to do with Nebraska. 

Edited by Warrior10

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