ESPN FPI Says 5.5-6.5 for the Huskers

[Mavric]

Quote

For 2018, FPI ranked NU 50th among FBS teams with a projected record of 5.5-6.5. That's the same record FPI projected last season, which sent off alarm bells for the year to come, especially among coach Mike Riley's biggest critics. Nebraska finished 4-8. 

 

Frost, fresh off an undefeated season at Central Florida — which smashed ESPN's FPI record projection of 7.6.-4.7 in 2017 — has no such critics at NU. But the projections are based on 10,000 simulations of the formula, not feel-good vibes, so the metrics suggest a tough year, in part because of Nebraska's schedule. 

 

The Huskers are predicted to finish 3-6 in the Big Ten. The FPI gives Nebraska only a 28.5 percent chance of beating Northwestern, followed by Iowa (23.7), Michigan State (19.2), Wisconsin (10.4), Michigan (10.0) and Ohio State (6.6).

 

OWH

[RedSavage]

 

Think we beat both Northwestern and Iowa.  Along with at least 1 of the other 4.

[BIG ERN]

There is no metric that can be done for the amount Scott Frost brings to Nebraska. A new coach actually hurts you in the FPI ratings. Frost > Riley

[Moiraine]

Ya... I don't know a whole lot about these computer ratings but if I had to guess I'd say they do better when there is no coaching change involved. With a coaching change there is a huge variety of things that can happen to a team. They could try to use it as a variable — e.g. is the coach new? what was his previous record?

 

But then you still have things like what conference did he coach in? was he the head coach, how long was he the coach? did he learn from Tom Osborne and Chip Kelly?

 

I have a feeling not many humans are going to pick 5 wins for Nebraska even though our B1G away schedule is tough. There is still a bias that Nebraska players are slow though, and so some people may think they can't run Frost's offense.

Edited April 6, 2018 by Moiraine

[Redux]

I would happily take a bet right now that Nebraska can win more than 5 ganes.

[husker_fan_from_sweden]

If ESPN was off by 5 wins with UCF last year, I wouldn't mind if they were wrong by the same amount again this year. 10-2 would be a stellar season.

[Fru]

Eh it seems about right. Bowl eligible is all I'm really hoping for, but I'm not banking on anything. This is a fairly significant rebuild. 

[Huskers93-97]

I do not believe this is a huge rebuild, rebuild yes- huge no. We have some good talent- we had a bad coach, with a bad scheme, poor conditioning and players quit on him last year. Does anyone really believe we are a 4 win talent team? We have had the best recruiting classes in our BIG division. So the talent must be there. Change in attitude, quality coach, modern scheme, players in shape- those things can do wonders. I saw something that said we have a 28% chance to beat Northwestern. Seriously are these people high. I dont care about a new scheme- no riley = better odds than last year.

 

I am setting my expectation at 7-5 for the year. To be honest if we win a few more than that and have an 8 or 9 win season I wont be surprised because of the those factors I mentioned above. I know the schedule is tough- but I think we are ripe for a quick turnaround. 

 

I know the woah woah temper your expectations guys will jump all over this. But like I said my expectation is 7-5, but I wont be surprised if Scott Frost and these CORNHuskers surprise us with some solid play.

[4skers89]

I think it sounds about right. It will take a little less time to install the offense here than UCF which apparently took until spring of second year. UCF finished 108th in rushing offense year 1. Nothing in our recent past indicates we have an OL that will do better then that.  Our defense will improve but it would be difficult not to. I expect a lot of close losses and a blowout or two.

[Hunter94]

If we get some qb development, 7-5 is doable. Staying healthy will be a big deal along with developing some depth.

[Fru]

10 minutes ago, Huskers93-97 said:

I do not believe this is a huge rebuild, rebuild yes- huge no. We have some good talent- we had a bad coach, with a bad scheme, poor conditioning and players quit on him last year. Does anyone really believe we are a 4 win talent team? We have had the best recruiting classes in our BIG division. So the talent must be there. Change in attitude, quality coach, modern scheme, players in shape- those things can do wonders. I saw something that said we have a 28% chance to beat Northwestern. Seriously are these people high. I dont care about a new scheme- no riley = better odds than last year.

 

I am setting my expectation at 7-5 for the year. To be honest if we win a few more than that and have an 8 or 9 win season I wont be surprised because of the those factors I mentioned above. I know the schedule is tough- but I think we are ripe for a quick turnaround. 

 

I know the woah woah temper your expectations guys will jump all over this. But like I said my expectation is 7-5, but I wont be surprised if Scott Frost and these CORNHuskers surprise us with some solid play.

 

I think 7-5 is about right. 6-6 wouldn't shock me, neither would 8-4. I think this team probably gets an upset victory a la MSU 2015. 

[Huskers93-97]

Just now, Fru said:

 

I think 7-5 is about right. 6-6 wouldn't shock me, neither would 8-4. I think this team probably gets an upset victory a la MSU 2015. 

Agree. Not upsetting ohio state. But I could see pulling off one of the michigan-wisconsin type games. 

 

Outside of those 3 teams. We have better talent on the roster than the other 9 teams we play. So I dont see 9 wins as unrealistic. May not be likely- but I wouldnt call it unrealistic. Because I understand being the first year there will be ups and downs and more inconsistencies than future years once his system is in place.

[suh_fan93]

Of course I'm hopeful to be better than 4-8 and I think we will be but by how much honestly I'm just not spending a lot of time worrying about it right now.  I'm simply happy just having him and his new staff here and the obvious change in culture that he is implementing.  That's enough for me right now.  I just want to see these kids fight again and I think he and his coaches are teaching that among other good things.

 

[Ulty]

I bet you a million dollars that we don’t finish 5.5 - 6.5.

[The Dude]

I'd bet a one hundred dollar bill we beat Michigan in Michigan.