Nebraska vs Michigan

[Moiraine]

1 hour ago, Enhance said:

This reminds me of a fun debate we used to have on this board in recent years - were we satisfied with all the #9win seasons from '08 to '14, or would we have trade one of those for a bad season (like 5ish wins) and a really good season (11-12 wins plus a major bowl victory).

 

The latter is what we see with regularity in college football now. Wisconsin has been a poster child for this despite some more recent, consistent success. They spent much of the early 2000's sucking one year and then having a really good season the next.

 

 

MSU 2016 is a good example. They went 3-9. But they've been to the playoffs.

 

I wouldn't want the current investigation they're going through though.

[beorach]

It's those helmets they stole from Princeton.  It's a B1G thing going way back (that we used to complain about until we joined).  It's the same reason we have to play at a whore named Ann Arbor three times before we get a second home game.

 

p.s. - http://www.spartanjerseys.com/michigan-state-football-jersey-helmet/winged-helmet/

[brophog]

2 hours ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

MSU 2016 is a good example. They went 3-9. But they've been to the playoffs.

 

 

It's a very interesting example. It looks like a big outlier season, but that's because the two surrounding seasons both have inflated win totals relative to production. They were closer to a .500 team in 2016 while the two surrounding years were also a couple of games closer to .500, obviously in the opposite direction.

[HuskerNBigD]

13 hours ago, Landlord said:

 

Since 2001:

 

Michigan

Top 25 Finishes: 10

Top 10 Finishes: 5
Major Bowl Appearances: 5
Major Bowl Wins: 1

Conference Championships: 2

 

Nebraska

Top 25 Finishes: 7

Top 10 Finishes: 0
Major Bowl Appearances: 0
Major Bowl Wins: 0

Conference Championships: 0

 

 

 

 

 

I remember that differently. Robinson was getting more love (deservedly so), but Taylor was also getting a ton of media attention through the first half of the season.

 

This! I even remember ESPN running one of their sports science segments on Martinez's front end speed. Shocking, I know - ESPN actually showed some love. It's amazing how a little bit of success will gain ESPN's attention, contrary to what many here believe.

[Landlord]

3 hours ago, Moiraine said:

MSU 2016 is a good example. They went 3-9. But they've been to the playoffs.

 

 

Dantonio at MSU is a good counterpoint to Pelini at Nebraska. 

 

7-6

9-4

6-7

11-2

11-3

7-6

13-1

11-2

12-2

3-9

10-3

 

 

Who wouldn't want that over 

9-4

10-4

10-4

9-4

10-4

9-4

9-4

[Guy Chamberlin]

Five games into his freshman season, the national press had already elevated Taylor Martinez into the Heisman discussion.

 

Two seasons before, the ESPN pundits created a Suh for Heisman bandwagon to counter the Tebow, McCoy and Ingram hype. 

 

When Nebraska does things well, we get all the respect we deserve. 

 

If you ask a Michigan fan, they're sick and tired of playing second fiddle to Ohio State, and the bloom has definitely worn off Jim Harbaugh.. 

 

[Husker John]

http://journalstar.com/sports/columnists/sipple/steven-m-sipple-dinardo-says-harbaugh-all-over-map-while/article_f95b4287-4742-5604-ba3d-1de06b32c077.html

 

Big Ten Network, Gerry DiNardo, says Frost has a better chance to win a divisional championship before Harbaugh.

 

[Moiraine]

1 hour ago, Husker John said:

http://journalstar.com/sports/columnists/sipple/steven-m-sipple-dinardo-says-harbaugh-all-over-map-while/article_f95b4287-4742-5604-ba3d-1de06b32c077.html

 

Big Ten Network, Gerry DiNardo, says Frost has a better chance to win a divisional championship before Harbaugh.

 

 

 

Not really going out on a limb there. We basically just have Wisconsin in our way. Plus some bad crossover "luck." Ya, Iowa has beat us lately, but I see that almost exclusively as a coaching problem.

[brophog]

1 hour ago, Husker John said:

http://journalstar.com/sports/columnists/sipple/steven-m-sipple-dinardo-says-harbaugh-all-over-map-while/article_f95b4287-4742-5604-ba3d-1de06b32c077.html

 

Big Ten Network, Gerry DiNardo, says Frost has a better chance to win a divisional championship before Harbaugh.

 

 

Today I learned Nebraska and Michigan each only have one offensive formation. My 9 year old nephew disagrees, but he's not the expert DiNardo is.

 

The only real takeaway here is the division breakdown makes it slightly easier for Nebraska, which we knew. I emphasize slightly because it's not as cut and dry as it seems. Of the four teams in the East that make up that clear upper tier, Michigan every year has to play 3 of them...which Nebraska does this year as well. 2019 only has Ohio St, so a big difference there, but 2020 is Ohio St and Penn St, and 2021 gets 3 teams again with Ohio St, Michigan, and Michigan St. Bottomline, Michigan's got the tougher division, but Nebraska tends to draw the toughest part of it.

 

The big problem both teams have is Ohio St. If Ohio St is the leader in the East in a given year, it's a harder year for Michigan because it becomes very hard to win a division if you can't beat the division leader due to head to head tiebreaker. If someone like Penn St has a strong year, that potentially lessens the importance of the head to head. Bottomline, sometimes having numerous potential division winners is easier because of the chaos, rather than needing to go 8-1 or better due to having only 1 potential rival.

 

Nebraska's problem with Ohio St may even be bigger because Wisconsin, currently and for the foreseeable future leader of the division, only plays Ohio St. in 2019. 2020 is a joke schedule with only Michigan of that top 4, and 2021 has Michigan and Penn St, but both at home with road games at ever cushy Illinois and Rutgers.  Bottomline, Nebraska's window is small...2019, Wisconsin's potentially toughest year and Nebraska's clearly easiest.

 

And by "tough year" I mean they have to play Michigan, Michigan St, and Iowa at home. But...if DiNardo is right and Michigan has no plan and Harbaugh is "all over the map" then even that suddenly doesn't look like that tough of a schedule. At no point in the current Big 10 schedule does Wisconsin play both Ohio St and Penn St, and only plays each of them once. Meanwhile Wisconsin gets a heavy dose of Michigan.

 

 

[WyoHusker56]

57 minutes ago, brophog said:

 

Today I learned Nebraska and Michigan each only have one offensive formation. My 9 year old nephew disagrees, but he's not the expert DiNardo is.

 

The only real takeaway here is the division breakdown makes it slightly easier for Nebraska, which we knew. I emphasize slightly because it's not as cut and dry as it seems. Of the four teams in the East that make up that clear upper tier, Michigan every year has to play 3 of them...which Nebraska does this year as well. 2019 only has Ohio St, so a big difference there, but 2020 is Ohio St and Penn St, and 2021 gets 3 teams again with Ohio St, Michigan, and Michigan St. Bottomline, Michigan's got the tougher division, but Nebraska tends to draw the toughest part of it.

 

The big problem both teams have is Ohio St. If Ohio St is the leader in the East in a given year, it's a harder year for Michigan because it becomes very hard to win a division if you can't beat the division leader due to head to head tiebreaker. If someone like Penn St has a strong year, that potentially lessens the importance of the head to head. Bottomline, sometimes having numerous potential division winners is easier because of the chaos, rather than needing to go 8-1 or better due to having only 1 potential rival.

 

Nebraska's problem with Ohio St may even be bigger because Wisconsin, currently and for the foreseeable future leader of the division, only plays Ohio St. in 2019. 2020 is a joke schedule with only Michigan of that top 4, and 2021 has Michigan and Penn St, but both at home with road games at ever cushy Illinois and Rutgers.  Bottomline, Nebraska's window is small...2019, Wisconsin's potentially toughest year and Nebraska's clearly easiest.

 

And by "tough year" I mean they have to play Michigan, Michigan St, and Iowa at home. But...if DiNardo is right and Michigan has no plan and Harbaugh is "all over the map" then even that suddenly doesn't look like that tough of a schedule. At no point in the current Big 10 schedule does Wisconsin play both Ohio St and Penn St, and only plays each of them once. Meanwhile Wisconsin gets a heavy dose of Michigan.

 

 

 

On a somewhat related note. If this wasn't Frost's first year and we weren't in rebuilding mode, the schedule this year would be perfect for a playoff run. If you went undefeated or even 12-1 or 11-2 (including the conference championship) with our schedule this year it'd be hard to keep us out!

[Moiraine]

1 hour ago, WyoHusker56 said:

On a somewhat related note. If this wasn't Frost's first year and we weren't in rebuilding mode, the schedule this year would be perfect for a playoff run. If you went undefeated or even 12-1 or 11-2 (including the conference championship) with our schedule this year it'd be hard to keep us out!

No undefeated B1G team is getting left out of the playoff, unless the extremely unlikely event occurs that there are 5 undefeated P5 schools or 4 + Notre Dame. Even then, I'd bet the B1G team would go over the Pac-12 or Big 12 unless it's USC or Oklahoma. Therefore, an easier schedule is a lot closer to "perfect" for a playoff run.

[Enhance]

16 hours ago, WyoHusker56 said:

On a somewhat related note. If this wasn't Frost's first year and we weren't in rebuilding mode, the schedule this year would be perfect for a playoff run. If you went undefeated or even 12-1 or 11-2 (including the conference championship) with our schedule this year it'd be hard to keep us out!

Perhaps, but we've seen teams get rewarded for playing somewhat weaker schedules. I believe it's happened twice in the last two years. There's a real possibility tOSU would've made the playoff last year over Alabama if they hadn't scheduled (and lost) to OU in the non-con. Conversely, Alabama played one of their regularly scheduled high school teams in November and that helped them keep their positioning.

[brophog]

Most SOS formulas are designed such that a team gets punished severely for playing weak competition but not rewarded commensurate to risk for defeating very strong competition. The optimal schedule is therefore a bunch of decent teams that you have a high chance of defeating, sprinkled in with a minimal number of high end teams that carry more risk.

 

This is why conference affiliation matters so much, and why conferences like the American will always have a difficult time.