Jump to content


How Do You Spell Expectations in Nebraska?


Recommended Posts

I see the whole "expectation" discussion as dancing about architecture. So, when one goes to Las Vegas, should one expect to win a lot more than they lose? The last time I saw this team, they looked like the fresh meat heading into a  back-alley, high stakes, Yakuza pai gao game. Knowing where I'm gambling will adjust expectations accordingly. Our schedule next year is Yakuza Pai Gao. I would expect to lose money, and would be happy to break even and leave alive.

When we're in the Bellagio playing 5 dollar Black Jack, I will expect to come out ahead and have a few nice drinky drinks. I will enjoy both experiences. Unless Yakuza murders me, then not so much.

  • Plus1 3
Link to comment

4 hours ago, Lonestar_Husker said:

I see the whole "expectation" discussion as dancing about architecture. So, when one goes to Las Vegas, should one expect to win a lot more than they lose? The last time I saw this team, they looked like the fresh meat heading into a  back-alley, high stakes, Yakuza pai gao game. Knowing where I'm gambling will adjust expectations accordingly. Our schedule next year is Yakuza Pai Gao. I would expect to lose money, and would be happy to break even and leave alive.

When we're in the Bellagio playing 5 dollar Black Jack, I will expect to come out ahead and have a few nice drinky drinks. I will enjoy both experiences. Unless Yakuza murders me, then not so much.

 

Well, that escalated quickly.

  • Plus1 1
Link to comment

Here is what I expect:

1. The season will start with a kickoff.

2. Refs will make some dubious calls and these will be randomly upheld or reversed upon replay, because that guy is just as fallable as anyone else.

3.  Some hard working player will be ejected who did not deserve it.

4. It will take a better effort this year to be bowl eligible than last.

  • Plus1 2
Link to comment

My expectations are higher than the predicted 5-6 winds because of the new staff. MR and staff were inept. Two things that amaze me are:

  • MR didn't even use all 85 scholarships. Frost used more than 85, and counted on attrition to make the limit. Frost continued to add players at key positions after signing day, and may not be done adding players yet.
  • MR waited until year 3 to get a pro style QB. Frost's first recruit was a QB for his system.

Frost and staff have to be worth at least three additional wins even with a tough schedule.

Link to comment
2 hours ago, MichiganDad3 said:

My expectations are higher than the predicted 5-6 winds because of the new staff. MR and staff were inept. Two things that amaze me are:

  • MR didn't even use all 85 scholarships. Frost used more than 85, and counted on attrition to make the limit. Frost continued to add players at key positions after signing day, and may not be done adding players yet.
  • MR waited until year 3 to get a pro style QB. Frost's first recruit was a QB for his system.

Frost and staff have to be worth at least three additional wins even with a tough schedule.

 

That second point amazes me, not so much that Riley did it but that we see it so often in coaching changes. Look at staffs like Minnesota or Illinois being held back because they didn't aggressively pursue a QB immediately. Even at those schools, with so many QBs transferring or going the JUCO route, there are plenty of available QBs out there. I just don't think there is any excuse for a new staff to use a QB that doesn't fit their needs. It sets the entire offense back when you try to make a poor fit at QB.

 

Regardless of how many wins we see this year, never let it be said Frost isn't being aggressive at all positions to make his systems functional. Even if you don't have ideal pieces year 1, just having the ability to play how you want gains others valuable experience for when you can upgrade. None of this "year 3 feels like year 1" nonsense. With the experience this staff has, we are working hard on "year 1 feels like year 2" and that's a win in itself.

  • Plus1 3
Link to comment

In this life, there are things that are within our control and things that are beyond our control. Ultimately, winning a game is never totally within our control, the other team, officials, and happenstance all get a vote.

  All you can really do is base your objectives, and expectations upon the things you CAN control.  

You can control how hard you work, your technique, explosiveness, willingness to work as a team, attitude.

Link to comment
1 hour ago, dvdcrr said:

In this life, there are things that are within our control and things that are beyond our control. Ultimately, winning a game is never totally within our control, the other team, officials, and happenstance all get a vote.

  All you can really do is base your objectives, and expectations upon the things you CAN control.  

You can control how hard you work, your technique, explosiveness, willingness to work as a team, attitude.

As fans, we don't control any of those things. I'm not sure how that affects our expectations though.

Link to comment
9 hours ago, brophog said:

That second point amazes me, not so much that Riley did it but that we see it so often in coaching changes. Look at staffs like Minnesota or Illinois being held back because they didn't aggressively pursue a QB immediately. Even at those schools, with so many QBs transferring or going the JUCO route, there are plenty of available QBs out there. I just don't think there is any excuse for a new staff to use a QB that doesn't fit their needs. It sets the entire offense back when you try to make a poor fit at QB.

The QB situation under MR will likely go down as one of his biggest failings and, in hindsight, his decision not to get a pro style QB was largely a mistake. But, I think we need to keep the optics of that time frame in mind when we look back:

 

  • Tommy Armstrong Jr. was fairly well-liked across the fan base in 2015, at least to the degree that fans felt comfortable with him as the incumbent starter
  • MR probably knew his hiring wasn't exactly met with resounding fan fair -> coming in under those circumstances and forcing TA out in favor of 'his guy' would have been met with a lot of anger and debate
  • Based on my anecdotal memory, the decision to stay with TA was mostly lauded by the fan base and media because of TA's expected ceiling and the idea that it would provide a calming presence to the offense during a tough transition period

 

Again, I think it was ultimately a mistake, but the situation was not very black and white at the time.

  • Plus1 4
Link to comment

Personally, I wouldn't have really minded if Riley brought in someone else to start over Armstrong in his first year, as I was never all that high on him.

 

In the end, though, I don't think changing any details like that would have changed the overall outcome - the only real way to fix the Riley era would have been to not hire Mike Riley in the first place.

  • Plus1 2
Link to comment
4 hours ago, Toe said:

Personally, I wouldn't have really minded if Riley brought in someone else to start over Armstrong in his first year, as I was never all that high on him.

 

In the end, though, I don't think changing any details like that would have changed the overall outcome - the only real way to fix the Riley era would have been to not hire Mike Riley in the first place.

 

Agree on that.  It would have been a tough call but it was a call that needed to be made.  

 

Here's what I wrote after Riley Year 1 (TA Year 3):

 

On 12/3/2015 at 11:35 AM, Mavric said:

I've been trying to figure out what the coaches see in TA since spring. It's obvious - and has been for some time - that he lacks the skills that QBs need to run Langsdorf's system. That's why I was surprised how quickly he "won" the job.

 

Now it's entirely possible - and accurate to a large extent - that TA does more things better than the other guys we have now. But it's also true - from many media reports - that the other guys didn't get nearly as much of a chance.

 

Here's my assertion of how things went after the new coaches came on board.

 

TA was a two-year starter. He played well in the bowl game (the first game the new coaches saw as our coaches). By all accounts, he's popular with the team. And he has good leadership qualities.

 

The new coaches knew they had a lot of work ahead of them to get their system in place. It doesn't make any sense to try to get 3-4 QBs ready to play. You have to pick a guy - two at max - and get them as many reps as possible. TA was obviously well ahead of everyone else in playing time and years in college. And he has the physical tools. Pretty easy to say "he's our guy, we just need him to work on a few things and learn the system." Thus, he's getting the vast majority of the reps all spring and fall.

 

Then you have Fyfe. He's the kind of guy you would expect to be a good back-up from an NFL point of view. He's a veteran compared to they other guys. He has more game experience. He doesn't have the highest ceiling but you expect ( :o ) him to be able to come in and run the show if needed (which you're hoping to not have to do).

 

So the coaches were forced to make quick decisions and they went with the most logical choices. Those guys get all the reps and the other guys get the scraps. Can't blame them - really no other way to go.

 

But now things are different. The entire team knows the system (more or less). There isn't the demand to keep installing new things. They can work on the things they need to get better at. And you can give more time to the backups. That leaves a wider door open for someone else to make a move. You add all that to the lack of success TA had this year plus however the sexual assault and walking out of practice play into it and I think (hope) POB has a great chance to push for a starting spot.

 

It would be quite a feat for a true freshman to unseat a fifth-year senior who's a three year starter. But I've also been reading between the lines whenever Riley or Langsdorf talk about TA. All the way back for 11 months. Spring practice, fall camp and through the year. They always talked about how he's a competitor. How he's a leader. How's he bounces back from mistakes. You almost never heard them come out of a practice saying "Tommy really threw the ball well today." Or "Tommy is really running the offense great." It's always been about the intangibles. Those are all well and good. But at some point it has to translate into actual performance. It does in flashes - TA's problem has never been that he can't do what's asked of him. It's always been that he can't do it consistently enough.

 

It'll be interesting to see if TA can make some progress and hold off the competition or if the coaches are really looking for someone to make a push for the job.

 

  • Plus1 1
Link to comment

31 minutes ago, Mavric said:

 

Agree on that.  It would have been a tough call but it was a call that needed to be made.  

 

Here's what I wrote after Riley Year 1 (TA Year 3):

 

 

Yep sacrificing winning.  The perfect scenario for a program that is based solely on that fact.  No it was not the call that needed to be made.  Can you even imagine the absolute $(&$ show that would have been.  Riley wouldn’t have lasted 20 months.  Back to the convoluted arguments about “future”, “development”, “system”.  You give the team the best chance to win.  That was TA hands down.  What is even worse about this argument is that Riley didn’t even recruit a quarterback on the roster at any point that would have beaten him at any point.  If you are going to argue that Lee was a better quarterback for WINNING football games...

  • Plus1 1
Link to comment
8 hours ago, KingBlank said:

Yep sacrificing winning.  The perfect scenario for a program that is based solely on that fact.  No it was not the call that needed to be made.  Can you even imagine the absolute $(&$ show that would have been.  Riley wouldn’t have lasted 20 months.  Back to the convoluted arguments about “future”, “development”, “system”.  You give the team the best chance to win.  That was TA hands down.  What is even worse about this argument is that Riley didn’t even recruit a quarterback on the roster at any point that would have beaten him at any point.  If you are going to argue that Lee was a better quarterback for WINNING football games...

 

I think Armstrong is an underrated QB in Nebraska history, but your argument makes no sense. 5-7 is not "winning" when the entire reason Mike Riley was hired was to improve on a string of 7 consecutive 9 win seasons. 

 

 

  • Plus1 1
Link to comment
On June 25, 2018 at 8:33 AM, Enhance said:

The QB situation under MR will likely go down as one of his biggest failings and, in hindsight, his decision not to get a pro style QB was largely a mistake. But, I think we need to keep the optics of that time frame in mind when we look back:

 

  • Tommy Armstrong Jr. was fairly well-liked across the fan base in 2015, at least to the degree that fans felt comfortable with him as the incumbent starter
  • MR probably knew his hiring wasn't exactly met with resounding fan fair -> coming in under those circumstances and forcing TA out in favor of 'his guy' would have been met with a lot of anger and debate
  • Based on my anecdotal memory, the decision to stay with TA was mostly lauded by the fan base and media because of TA's expected ceiling and the idea that it would provide a calming presence to the offense during a tough transition period

 

Again, I think it was ultimately a mistake, but the situation was not very black and white at the time.

 

As to point 2, so what. I'm not saying that to be argumentative or dismissive. The fact is every coach gets the most leeway in year 1 - use it. One of the traits of successful coaching changes is a tendency to make necessary changes even if that will upset people. Tommy didn't have the ability to run their offense and they didn't have the ability to effectively use Tommy. 

 

When we look at parallels to our current situation, we see the opposite approach. Guys like Frost and Held fully realize there is a segment of this fanbase that identifies Nebraska football with a fullback, a pair of tights and a ground and pound style. They're understanding, but completely unapologetic in doing it their way. They know their system works, they're very competent in it, and folks just need to accept it. Some won't. There will be a point where it's 3rd and goal and they fail to punch it in and the call in shows and messageboards will be buzzing. The smart coach realizes every system has some situation where it's weak like this, and you're never going to please all people.

  • Plus1 2
Link to comment
3 hours ago, brophog said:

As to point 2, so what.

I agree with your overall opinion. My point is being careful with hindsight. The QB situation is far easier to judge now than it was in 2015.

 

We also have to be careful with those parallels. Frost is getting an incredible amount of leeway because of his place in Husker history and, more importantly, his resounding success as a coach so far. Mike Riley was never going to get that and it's naturally going to impact decision making. I mean, does anybody here think MR could've suggested changing the Tunnel Walk song and got away with it? Not a chance in Hell. He would've been vilified as an outsider.

  • Plus1 2
Link to comment
11 hours ago, brophog said:

 

I think Armstrong is an underrated QB in Nebraska history, but your argument makes no sense. 5-7 is not "winning" when the entire reason Mike Riley was hired was to improve on a string of 7 consecutive 9 win seasons. 

 

 

It would have been much worse is my point, we may have only won 2 games, and the next season wouldn’t have been much better, and the next before he was fired.  Benching TA would have been one of the most idiotic coaching moves Mike could have made.  More idiotic then his time usage, play calling, game management, strength training, and overall woosification of this program put together.

  • Plus1 1
Link to comment

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...