Trump’s Shocking Approval with African Americans

[Ric Flair]

 

Democrats should be terrified. Only 8% of African-American voters voted for him in 2016. So if he’s the racist, bigoted monster some of you claim him to be, how come his approval rate with African-Americans keeps growing?

 

Quote

Even as cable news networks debate reports of the existence of a recording of President Donald Trump using a racial slur, a new poll from Rasmussen Reports says that the president's approval rating among African-Americans is at 36 percent, nearly double his support at this time last year. 

 

"Today's @realDonaldTrump approval ratings among black voters: 36%," Rasmussen said in a tweet. "This day last year: 19%." 

That is a staggeringly high number for a man who only won 8 percent of the African-American vote in 2016.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/08/16/trump-approval-rating-african-americans-rasmussen-poll/1013212002/

[Enhance]

The hyperbole and instigation aside, those numbers are intriguing. I think the more interesting aspect is that other polling services are seeing increases as well, though none so grand as Rasmussen. See below (from the same article):

 

Quote

Trump frequently cites Rasmussen polls because they consistently show him with a higher approval rating than other polling organizations. For example, the Real Clear Politics average currently has Trump at 43 percent approval. But today's tracking poll from Rasmussen has the president at 49 percent. And while Trump has never topped 46 percent on the RCP average, Rasmussen has shown Trump with approval ratings as high as 59 percent. 

But other polls have also shown an increase in support for Trump among African-Americans – albeit a more modest increase than Rasmussen found.

An NAACP poll released on Aug. 7 found that Trump's approval rating was at 21 percent. And a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center in June found Trump's approval rating among blacks at 14 percent. 

Although a vast majority of African-Americans still disapprove of Trump's job as president, those numbers represent an improvement from his share of the vote in 2016. No Republican presidential candidate has done better than 12 percent among blacks since Bob Dole in 1996, according to Cornell University's Roper Center.

 

 

So, it looks like things are improving, but saying Democrats should be 'terrified...' Meh. That's mostly exaggeration and political posturing. The African-American vote is still largely against Trump and will likely remain his disadvantage.

[Ric Flair]

I’m interested in where you see “hyperbole and instigation.” It seems any pro-Trump thread with a premise you disagree with is viewed as a bait thread. That’s the same sort of simple-minded and close-minded way of thinking that leads people to start thinking they should ban speech. After all, if some ideas are better than others, while some are more hurtful than others, why allow the worse and hurtful ones at all?

 

The reason this is important is because Republicans enjoy large advantages with white voters. So if Democrats can’t win minorities by massive margins, they will struggle to win elections. Historically, something like 85-90% or more of black voters have voted for Democrats. If Trump amd Republicans could win even 15-20% of the black vote, it could make a significant difference.

[knapplc]

A recent NAACP poll put Trump's approval among African-Americans at 21%.

 

A recent Pew Research poll put Trump's approval among African-Americans at 12%.

 

A recent Gallup poll puts Trump's approval among African-Americans between 10%-15%.

 

The discrepancy, explained.

 

All of the available polls, from the most pro-Trump (Rasmussen) to the least (Pew) indicate that Trump's approval rating among African-Americans remains abysmal.

 

One might even say "shockingly" abysmal.

[Landlord]

2 hours ago, Ric Flair said:

Historically, something like 85-90% or more of black voters have voted for Democrats. If Trump amd Republicans could win even 15-20% of the black vote, it could make a significant difference.

 

 

85% and 15% adds up to..?

[Ric Flair]

1 hour ago, knapplc said:

A recent NAACP poll put Trump's approval among African-Americans at 21%.

 

A recent Pew Research poll put Trump's approval among African-Americans at 12%.

 

A recent Gallup poll puts Trump's approval among African-Americans between 10%-15%.

 

The discrepancy, explained.

 

All of the available polls, from the most pro-Trump (Rasmussen) to the least (Pew) indicate that Trump's approval rating among African-Americans remains abysmal.

 

One might even say "shockingly" abysmal.

 

Missing the point much? Trump’s approval rating among African Americans has increased substantially during election day...and election he won. If Democrats start bleeding black voters, their electoral chances circle the drain.

[Ric Flair]

6 minutes ago, Landlord said:

 

 

85% and 15% adds up to..?

 

I provided ranges. It’s kind of sad to have to explain that. 

 

In 2016, Clinton received 89% of the black vote.

 

in 2012, Obama received 93% of the black vote.

 

in 2008, Obama received 95% of the black vote.

 

in 2004, Kerry received 88% of the black vote. 

 

In 2000, Gore received 90% of the black vote. 

 

So the average for Democrats this millenium has been 91%. For the elections they won, they needed at least 93% of the black vote. The fact that Trump’s approval among black voters is now between 10-36% should have Democrats terrified. Given how Rasmussen typically has a likely voter screen built into their polling model (they typically do), I give more credence to their numbers. So let’s assume the real approval rate for black voters who are likely to vote is around 18-20%.

 

Democrats cannot win a national election if they lose more than 10% of the black vote. If 18-20% of black voters vote for Trump, they’re dead in the water.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[knapplc]

5 hours ago, Ric Flair said:

 

Missing the point much? Trump’s approval rating among African Americans has increased substantially during election day...and election he won. If Democrats start bleeding black voters, their electoral chances circle the drain.

 

According to the polls I linked, his support has not "substantially" increased. It may have gone up slightly, but when you're polling in the low teens there's almost nowhere to go but up. I suppose trumpsters can celebrate that it's not zero. 

[Ric Flair]

34 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

According to the polls I linked, his support has not "substantially" increased. It may have gone up slightly, but when you're polling in the low teens there's almost nowhere to go but up. I suppose trumpsters can celebrate that it's not zero. 

 

It’s now anywhere between 10-36%. Regardless, that’s good news for Republicans. It also belies this ongoing drumbeat that Trump is some sort of racist monster.

[knapplc]

1 hour ago, Ric Flair said:

 

It’s now anywhere between 10-36%. Regardless, that’s good news for Republicans. It also belies this ongoing drumbeat that Trump is some sort of racist monster.

 

Did the poll ask respondents if Trump was racist?

[knapplc]

7 hours ago, Ric Flair said:

The fact that Trump’s approval among black voters is now between 10-36% should have Democrats terrified.

 

But it isn't. It's about where it's always been, at 10%-21%.

 

One outlier poll (Rasmussen) doesn't trump (pun not intended) three other better-respected polls.

 

"It’s kind of sad to have to explain that."

[Enhance]

11 hours ago, Ric Flair said:

I’m interested in where you see “hyperbole and instigation.” It seems any pro-Trump thread with a premise you disagree with is viewed as a bait thread. That’s the same sort of simple-minded and close-minded way of thinking that leads people to start thinking they should ban speech. After all, if some ideas are better than others, while some are more hurtful than others, why allow the worse and hurtful ones at all.

 

"Democrats should be terrified." "If he's the racist, bigoted monster some of you claim him to be..." It's clear you're trying to instigate and use hyperbole to get your point across, but it doesn't surprise me that you would turn it into a 'my views are being discriminated against' when someone calls you out for it. It's a disappointing tactic regardless of being a liberal or conservative.

 

As it pertains to the content, I go back to what I said - democrats should be neither terrified nor worried about a political shift. Sure, his ratings have 'gone up' across a variety of polls, but to use a football analogy, there really isn't anywhere to go but up when you win two games the previous year. The African-American vote is still largely against Trump and will likely stay that way, and it will probably remain about where it's been historically.

[Ric Flair]

2 hours ago, knapplc said:

 

Did the poll ask respondents if Trump was racist?

 

Would black Americans approve of Trump if they thought he was? If they think he is but approve of him anyway, does it matter?

2 hours ago, knapplc said:

 

But it isn't. It's about where it's always been, at 10%-21%.

 

One outlier poll (Rasmussen) doesn't trump (pun not intended) three other better-respected polls.

 

"It’s kind of sad to have to explain that."

 

Wrong. 

[Ric Flair]

1 hour ago, Enhance said:

 

"Democrats should be terrified." "If he's the racist, bigoted monster some of you claim him to be..." It's clear you're trying to instigate and use hyperbole to get your point across, but it doesn't surprise me that you would turn it into a 'my views are being discriminated against' when someone calls you out for it. It's a disappointing tactic regardless of being a liberal or conservative.

 

As it pertains to the content, I go back to what I said - democrats should be neither terrified nor worried about a political shift. Sure, his ratings have 'gone up' across a variety of polls, but to use a football analogy, there really isn't anywhere to go but up when you win two games the previous year. The African-American vote is still largely against Trump and will likely stay that way, and it will probably remain about where it's been historically.

 

Irrelevant. Trump won with 8% or add of the black vote. Any increase to that 8% should have Democrats worried.

[knapplc]

13 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

Would black Americans approve of Trump if they thought he was? If they think he is but approve of him anyway, does it matter?

 

So you don't know what the poll asked, how the question was worded, or what biases may have been used to get the answer Rasmussen wanted.  They're known for that, so it's worth asking.

 

14 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

Wrong. 

 

I posted three well-respected polls that disprove your opinion that it's wrong.  You're welcome to your own opinions. But the facts remain the same.