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rankings by statistical comparison of team stats to date this season


beorach

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It's as ridiculous as pre-season rankings but it's something to do.  I calculate z-scores and convert them to percentiles for all the stats I can from nine categories: passing defense and offense; rushing defense and offense; scoring defense and offense; total defense and offense; and turnover margin.  The numbers in the first three lists below are averages of all the stats for the categories I give details for below (the three lists which focus on good old Nebraska U).  Once we have enough data, I'll prune all games that weren't played between conference teams from the FBS statistics all teams are compared to (via calculation of the z-scores).  Sometimes I just take all the games not played against other FBS teams out but we all know not all FBS conferences are created equal either.

 

Rank Team overall
1 Toledo 88.57
2 Ohio State 83.31
3 Boise State 81.03
4 Boston College 80.95
5 Mississippi State 80.32
6 Oklahoma State 79.88
7 Alabama 75.65
8 Georgia 75.34
9 TCU 75.08
10 Missouri 74.75
11 UCF 74.67
12 Wisconsin 74.67
13 Texas Tech 72.92
14 Virginia Tech 72.79
15 Auburn 72.61
16 North Texas 72.13
17 Oregon 71.78
18 Georgia Southern 71.08
19 Louisiana-Lafayette 71.02
20 Memphis 70.81
21 West Virginia 69.84
22 Oklahoma 69.53
23 Akron 69.40
24 Miami (Florida) 69.21
25 Washington State 67.98
26 Fresno State 67.91
27 Vanderbilt 67.84
28 Texas A&M 66.62
29 Maryland 65.92
30 Clemson 65.62
31 Louisiana Tech 65.23
32 Arizona State 64.98
33 Utah 64.62
34 Buffalo 64.49
35 Baylor 61.63
36 Michigan 60.74
37 Southern Mississippi 60.65
38 Minnesota 59.93
39 Houston 59.32
40 Syracuse 59.25
41 Ball State 58.44
42 Georgia Tech 58.42
43 UAB 57.50
44 North Carolina State 57.22
45 Stanford 56.85
46 Indiana 56.56
47 LSU 56.32
48 Washington 55.92
49 Kent State 55.79
50 South Florida 55.64
51 Virginia 55.51
52 Colorado 55.49
53 Penn State 55.44
54 Illinois 55.42
55 Kansas State 55.38
56 Arkansas 54.96
57 Air Force 54.83
58 Appalachian State 54.78
59 Mississippi 54.74
60 Tennessee 54.69
61 Marshall 54.31
62 Florida 53.72
63 Wake Forest 53.60
64 Utah State 53.55
65 Duke 52.80
66 Troy 52.12
67 California 52.05
68 Idaho 51.84
69 Eastern Michigan 51.29
70 Iowa State 51.18
71 Cincinnati 51.18
72 East Carolina 50.13
73 Kentucky 49.78
74 Tulane 48.62
75 South Carolina 48.42
76 UNLV 47.83
77 Notre Dame 47.60
78 Nebraska 46.92
79 Hawai'i 46.86
80 Louisiana-Monroe 46.34
81 Army 45.99
82 Michigan State 45.41
83 Nevada 45.11
84 Texas 44.18
85 Ohio 42.87
86 Purdue 41.71
87 Tulsa 41.16
88 USC 40.97
89 Iowa 40.46
90 Northwestern 40.45
91 San Diego State 40.37
92 BYU 40.22
93 Florida International 38.27
94 Middle Tennessee 38.23
95 Florida State 37.76
96 Charlotte 37.72
97 Pittsburgh 37.67
98 New Mexico 37.44
99 Navy 36.80
100 Oregon State 36.77
101 Arkansas State 35.76
102 Massachusetts 35.02
103 Texas State 34.54
104 Wyoming 33.42
105 UCLA 31.45
106 Coastal Carolina 31.38
107 Miami (Ohio) 31.14
108 Louisville 30.79
109 Rice 30.42
110 Western Kentucky 30.38
111 Colorado State 29.79
112 Northern Illinois 29.65
113 Arizona 28.48
114 Georgia State 28.04
115 North Carolina 27.84
116 Rutgers 26.80
117 Temple 25.20
118 Western Michigan 25.09
119 Florida Atlantic 24.98
120 Kansas 24.86
121 Central Michigan 23.00
122 San Jose State 19.99
123 SMU 19.51
124 South Alabama 19.42
125 UTEP 19.21
126 Bowling Green 19.17
127 Old Dominion 18.57
128 New Mexico State 17.03
129 UTSA 12.58
130 Connecticut 11.12

 

Rank Team defense
1 Utah 92.94
2 Washington State 90.59
3 Mississippi State 88.58
4 Akron 88.50
5 Indiana 88.33
6 TCU 87.36
7 Miami (Florida) 86.04
8 Toledo 84.77
9 Georgia Southern 82.62
10 Wisconsin 81.52
11 Oklahoma State 80.74
12 Georgia 80.50
13 Stanford 78.70
14 Cincinnati 78.68
15 Missouri 78.65
16 Michigan 78.42
17 Vanderbilt 78.16
18 Iowa 77.95
19 Auburn 77.73
20 LSU 76.73
21 Arizona State 75.83
22 Virginia Tech 75.55
23 Ohio State 75.12
24 Minnesota 74.42
25 Southern Mississippi 74.15
26 Alabama 72.63
27 California 72.05
28 Memphis 71.37
29 North Texas 70.48
30 Kent State 69.88
31 Boise State 69.49
32 Virginia 69.46
33 Fresno State 69.43
34 Boston College 68.43
35 Iowa State 67.96
36 West Virginia 67.74
37 Notre Dame 67.49
38 Buffalo 67.44
39 Air Force 66.96
40 Washington 65.58
41 Louisiana-Lafayette 65.34
42 Oregon 65.13
43 Maryland 65.13
44 Clemson 64.39
45 UCF 64.04
46 North Carolina State 63.18
47 Duke 63.07
48 Texas A&M 62.78
49 Marshall 61.85
50 Ball State 61.66
51 Florida 59.71
52 Louisiana Tech 59.23
53 East Carolina 59.16
54 San Diego State 58.90
55 Illinois 57.84
56 Georgia Tech 56.88
57 Texas Tech 56.61
58 Oklahoma 56.19
59 UAB 55.29
60 Appalachian State 54.48
61 Tennessee 54.32
62 Michigan State 52.98
63 USC 52.58
64 Charlotte 51.36
65 Northern Illinois 51.30
66 Kansas State 51.29
67 Utah State 51.23
68 BYU 49.96
69 Baylor 49.43
70 Wake Forest 48.92
71 Idaho 48.21
72 Penn State 47.53
73 Pittsburgh 45.37
74 Arkansas 45.17
75 Florida State 45.08
76 Eastern Michigan 45.05
77 Kentucky 44.36
78 Troy 44.11
79 Colorado 44.00
80 Louisiana-Monroe 43.26
81 Louisville 43.13
82 Northwestern 43.07
83 Miami (Ohio) 42.85
84 Texas 42.71
85 Army 42.24
86 Wyoming 42.02
87 South Carolina 41.89
88 Texas State 41.63
89 Purdue 41.14
90 Tulane 41.01
91 South Florida 40.80
92 Tulsa 40.58
93 Houston 40.12
94 Nevada 39.12
95 Rutgers 39.08
96 Western Kentucky 38.60
97 Nebraska 38.14
98 Kansas 38.06
99 Florida International 37.42
100 Syracuse 37.01
101 North Carolina 36.65
102 Temple 34.10
103 Central Michigan 33.71
104 UNLV 33.39
105 Middle Tennessee 31.13
106 UCLA 30.29
107 Georgia State 27.58
108 New Mexico State 23.53
109 SMU 22.18
110 Massachusetts 22.13
111 Ohio 21.95
112 Arizona 20.92
113 UTEP 20.31
114 Arkansas State 19.98
115 Mississippi 18.37
116 Navy 17.78
117 Hawai'i 17.60
118 Coastal Carolina 17.34
119 San Jose State 15.87
120 New Mexico 15.78
121 UTSA 15.29
122 Rice 15.02
123 Bowling Green 13.72
124 Western Michigan 13.59
125 South Alabama 12.71
126 Old Dominion 11.50
127 Colorado State 10.87
128 Florida Atlantic 6.35
129 Oregon State 4.13
130 Connecticut 0.38

 

Rank Team offense
1 Ohio State 95.87
2 Boston College 93.41
3 Boise State 92.35
4 Oklahoma State 92.21
5 Toledo 91.52
6 Oklahoma 88.32
7 Mississippi 88.31
8 Louisiana-Lafayette 87.14
9 Texas Tech 86.96
10 UCF 85.48
11 Oregon 84.84
12 Alabama 83.85
13 Texas A&M 82.23
14 Memphis 81.62
15 West Virginia 80.12
16 Houston 79.63
17 Syracuse 78.04
18 Mississippi State 77.86
19 Baylor 77.67
20 Missouri 75.15
21 Georgia 74.96
22 Hawai'i 74.54
23 Louisiana Tech 73.56
24 North Texas 73.12
25 Wisconsin 70.38
26 Auburn 70.06
27 Oregon State 69.71
28 Georgia Tech 68.11
29 Wake Forest 66.81
30 Nebraska 66.16
31 Virginia Tech 65.25
32 TCU 65.12
33 UAB 64.99
34 Maryland 64.68
35 Kansas State 64.66
36 Colorado 64.39
37 South Florida 63.97
38 Clemson 62.45
39 Penn State 60.93
40 Kentucky 60.87
41 Fresno State 60.44
42 Appalachian State 59.71
43 New Mexico 59.61
44 Troy 59.55
45 Georgia Southern 58.66
46 Miami (Florida) 58.19
47 UNLV 57.61
48 Washington State 57.47
49 Akron 56.71
50 Arkansas 56.38
51 Ball State 55.95
52 Nevada 55.59
53 Arkansas State 55.34
54 South Carolina 55.16
55 Washington 55.10
56 Buffalo 54.62
57 Vanderbilt 54.26
58 Southern Mississippi 53.84
59 North Carolina State 53.69
60 Eastern Michigan 53.56
61 Kent State 52.43
62 Arizona State 51.59
63 Utah State 50.93
64 Ohio 50.21
65 Tulane 50.17
66 Illinois 50.09
67 Texas 50.00
68 Utah 49.43
69 Purdue 49.39
70 East Carolina 48.48
71 Idaho 48.16
72 Tennessee 48.10
73 Louisiana-Monroe 47.35
74 Massachusetts 46.98
75 Marshall 46.89
76 Minnesota 46.70
77 Michigan 46.69
78 Middle Tennessee 45.98
79 Tulsa 45.29
80 Air Force 44.92
81 Army 44.81
82 Navy 44.43
83 Florida International 43.79
84 Colorado State 42.89
85 Florida 42.53
86 Virginia 41.54
87 Coastal Carolina 41.51
88 Rice 41.50
89 Florida Atlantic 40.58
90 Michigan State 37.82
91 Duke 37.09
92 Arizona 35.85
93 Western Michigan 35.57
94 Northwestern 33.85
95 USC 32.48
96 Florida State 31.50
97 Pittsburgh 30.72
98 Stanford 30.41
99 Notre Dame 28.08
100 LSU 28.02
101 California 27.13
102 BYU 26.15
103 UCLA 26.05
104 San Diego State 24.94
105 Iowa State 24.27
106 Texas State 22.61
107 Cincinnati 22.38
108 North Carolina 22.34
109 Indiana 22.12
110 Charlotte 22.01
111 Georgia State 21.63
112 Connecticut 21.21
113 Louisville 21.02
114 UTEP 20.84
115 Western Kentucky 20.69
116 Wyoming 19.67
117 Old Dominion 18.74
118 Bowling Green 17.91
119 San Jose State 17.90
120 Temple 17.70
121 South Alabama 17.66
122 Miami (Ohio) 17.59
123 Rutgers 16.24
124 Kansas 14.55
125 Central Michigan 11.41
126 SMU 10.00
127 UTSA 8.02
128 New Mexico State 7.83
129 Northern Illinois 6.38
130 Iowa 6.09

 

As for detailed NU stats, I have the following breakdown of the nine aforementioned categories (with the scores being given as the calculated percentiles of the given stats within them - please remember this is all relative and most teams haven't played anyone even as tough as the Buffies yet):

 

passing defense

completions per game: 1

percentage:                  15

yards per attempt:        47

touchdowns per game: 6

passer rating:                26

yards per game:            4

 

passing offense:

completions per game: 47

percentage:                  71

yards per attempt:        58

touchdowns per game: 20

passer rating:                45

yards per game:            47

 

rushing defense

yards per carry:             97

touchdowns per game:  64

yards per game:            94

 

rushing offense

yards per carry:              85

touchdowns per game:  82

yards per game:             97

 

scoring defense

touchdowns per game:  26

points per game:            20

 

scoring offense

touchdowns per game:  44

points per game:            34

 

total defense

yards per play:               71

yards per game:             40

plays per game:              3

 

total offense

yards per play:               73

yards per game:             91

plays per game:             95

 

turnover margin

fumbles gained per game:           12

interceptions gained per game:   8

turnovers gained per game:        4

fumbles lost per game:                1

interceptions lost per game:        34

turnovers lost per game:              3

turnover margin per game:          1

 

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I appreciate the concern over my time but this actually doesn't take much since I set up my spreadsheets to copy and paste into a number of years ago.  I did it to calculate spreads and I've made money a couple of seasons (though I've mainly lost - not the math's fault, of course).  There were some posters here who helped me improve it, too, so it was worthwhile to share for more than the usual reason.  If it bothers some of you, please feel free to ignore it.  I particularly like having whole seasons' worth of data to compare our past coaches, though.  E.g., here's my last stats post from the end of the Riley era:

 

2017-18 Final Stats Post

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1 hour ago, Huskers93-97 said:

Someone get Brad Pitt on the phone. See if he is down to do another Moneyball movie. Football Edition

 

I'm used to receiving a few rude/ignorant responses to my stats posts but this may be the first time anyone hasn't been able to leave just one (virtual) flaming bag of crap. 

Spoiler

This post will almost certainly generate a third! 

 

 

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