Some encouraging numbers (and some not)

[Gage County]

It's been a while since the Skers have had such good numbers on offense; 3rd in rushing, 16th in total offense. Even 81st in scoring offense is better than last year's 84th. The Skers have to got to get better at 3rd and 4th down, and in the red zone on both sides of the ball. The defensive number suggest we're solid up front but need work in the secondary.

 

From NCAA stats tracker:

Team Stats - Through games 09/08/2018 Stat Rank Value Total Offense T-16 565.0 Rushing Offense 3 329.0 Passing Offense 67 236.0 Team Passing Efficiency 69 138.36 Scoring Offense T-81 28.0 Total Defense 85 395.0 Rushing Defense 4 44.0 Passing Yards Allowed 123 351.0 Team Passing Efficiency Defense 98 144.77 Scoring Defense 103 33.0 Turnover Margin 128 -3.00 3rd Down Conversion Pct T-81 0.385 4th Down Conversion Pct T-97 0.000 3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense T-47 0.333 4th Down Conversion Pct Defense T-92 0.667 Red Zone Offense T-113 0.667 Red Zone Defense T-50 0.800 Net Punting 56 39.33 Punt Returns 121 -0.67 Kickoff Returns 112 15.00 First Downs Offense 124 25 First Downs Defense T-12 26 Fewest Penalties Per Game T-125 11.00 Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game 124 95.00 Time of Possession 69    29:45 View Complete Ranking Summary

 

[BIG ERN]

Very small sample size when 75% have played cupcakes to up their numbers. Have to let the season play out a lot more before these are relevant stats 

[DevoHusker]

are the ranking #'s based on our ONE game totals and everyone else's TWO game totals?

[ColoradoHusk]

Just now, DevoHusker said:

are the ranking #'s based on our ONE game totals and everyone else's TWO game totals?

Yes, but it would be on average per game figures. 

[DevoHusker]

Just now, ColoradoHusk said:

Yes, but it would be on average per game figures. 

 I just saw that on my second look...thanks

[Gage County]

4 minutes ago, DevoHusker said:

are the ranking #'s based on our ONE game totals and everyone else's TWO game totals?

 Yes, and some have 3 games. The total first downs is ranked by not per game but season total. #1 Hawaii has 78, #124 Skers have 25. Per game, Hawaii is 26, so that number is  skewed.

 

These numbers are as useful as preseason rankings.

 

[Redux]

Yeah 3rd and 4th down efficiency I was left pretty underwhelmed as a whole, they didn't look like they were prepared for the high pressure downs like they could be.

[BIG ERN]

41 minutes ago, Redux said:

Yeah 3rd and 4th down efficiency I was left pretty underwhelmed as a whole, they didn't look like they were prepared for the high pressure downs like they could be.

4 and 1 will always be tough. If we tried to bootleg or get tricky everyone would have said "Give to Ozigbo/Bell, he will pick up the 1 yard!" Then we do and he doesn't 

[Redux]

11 minutes ago, BIG ERN said:

4 and 1 will always be tough. If we tried to bootleg or get tricky everyone would have said "Give to Ozigbo/Bell, he will pick up the 1 yard!" Then we do and he doesn't 

 

Inexplicably, it was the one thing Riley did better than most.  We went for it on 4th a lot and converted a lot.  I'd hoped to see that trend continue.  But I guess it makes sense when you're in as many dog fights that you shouldn't be as Riley has been over the years.

[ColoradoHusk]

13 minutes ago, Redux said:

 

Inexplicably, it was the one thing Riley did better than most.  We went for it on 4th a lot and converted a lot.  I'd hoped to see that trend continue.  But I guess it makes sense when you're in as many dog fights that you shouldn't be as Riley has been over the years.

Here are Riley's 4th down achievement percentage in his 3 years at NU.  Yes, it wasn't bad, but you may have some perception bias with Riley, as well.

 

2015 - 62.5% - ranked tied for 23rd in NCAA

2016 - 57% - couldn't find the NCAA rankings in a short time period

2017 - 48% - ranked 79th

 

 

 

[Mavric]

12 minutes ago, Redux said:

Inexplicably, it was the one thing Riley did better than most.  We went for it on 4th a lot and converted a lot.  I'd hoped to see that trend continue.  But I guess it makes sense when you're in as many dog fights that you shouldn't be as Riley has been over the years.

 

Eh, not so much.  We were 79th in the country in 4th down percentage last year, though we were 16th in attempts.  We were 36th in percentage in 2016 but 56th in attempts.  In 2015 we were dead last in attempts but 23rd in percentage.  So a pretty mixed bag and all over the board.

[jaws]

1 hour ago, BIG ERN said:

Very small sample size when 75% have played cupcakes to up their numbers. Have to let the season play out a lot more before these are relevant stats 

 

Are you sure that Colorado isn't a cupcake?

[BIG ERN]

1 hour ago, jaws said:

 

Are you sure that Colorado isn't a cupcake?

I think they will win nothing short of 8 games this year. So, no. Also are a P5 team

1 hour ago, ColoradoHusk said:

Here are Riley's 4th down achievement percentage in his 3 years at NU.  Yes, it wasn't bad, but you may have some perception bias with Riley, as well.

 

2015 - 62.5% - ranked tied for 23rd in NCAA

2016 - 57% - couldn't find the NCAA rankings in a short time period

2017 - 48% - ranked 79th

 

 

 

I think not being under center on 4th and 1 will always make me nervous whether we are converting or not 

[ColoradoHusk]

4 minutes ago, BIG ERN said:

I think not being under center on 4th and 1 will always make me nervous whether we are converting or not 

 

Yeah, it takes getting used to, but I think more things can be done with zone read, RPO, QB run, etc. from the shotgun.  I like spreading the defense out and going from there.  I think Frost will figure out what plays the team will succeed at on 4th and shorts, and Martinez will start to make better reads of the defense, if given an option.

[JKinney]

18 minutes ago, BIG ERN said:

I think not being under center on 4th and 1 will always make me nervous whether we are converting or not 

 

To me, until I see data that says otherwise (and maybe it's out there, if so point it out to me), the QB sneak under center is NEARLY ALWAYS the best play to run if you are going for it on 4th and 1.  If you are passing it on 4th and short you are willing shooting yourself in the foot as far as converting goes, by about 9-10% every time.  The evidence below relates to the NFL, but I would guess it more or less holds true in college football as well.      

 

Evidence: http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/62665328

 http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2011/11/qb-sneak-vs-rb-dive.html