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actuarygambler

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  1. Yet, earlier in the week you posted this entry: http://actuarygambler.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_22.html (as instructed, click on the gray box and type Nebraska) which says Nebraska's chances of winning out are 22.9%, and their chances of making the CFP is 8.9%. 8.9/22.9 is nowhere close to 85%. That doesn't give me much faith in whatever system or methodology you are using. 8.9% chance of making the playoffs based on where things currently stand today, and perceived ability to win out. 85% chance of making the playoffs if they actually do win out. Yet, earlier in the week you posted this entry: http://actuarygambler.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_22.html (as instructed, click on the gray box and type Nebraska) which says Nebraska's chances of winning out are 22.9%, and their chances of making the CFP is 8.9%. 8.9/22.9 is nowhere close to 85%. That doesn't give me much faith in whatever system or methodology you are using. Thanks, it's a good observation. The 22.9% number you're citing is Nebraska's chance to win every remaining regular season game - it doesn't include the B1G conf championship game, which is definitely something I should be clearer about. But they're around 50/50 to win the b1g title game as a 1 loss team; if you add that into the calculations you're doing it adds up.
  2. Hi there, I was at this site a while back, wanted to come back and share this work: http://actuarygambler.blogspot.com/2014/11/college-football-math-destiny.html I built a model based on what we've seen from the CFP committee, how they've ranked teams, how they've talked through their reasoning for ranking teams, and how they've responded to onfield events. So far it's fitting the first 3 weeks fairly well. Based on that model, it looks like IF (that's a big if) Nebraska can win out the rest of their games, they'll have a really good chance to make the CFP. Over 80%. It's a big if, but it starts this weekend with your toughest remaining regular season game @Wisconsin. Then finishes with maybe a B1G title game? Good luck!
  3. Because humans have cognitive biases in what they observe, remember, think. Numbers don't. I thikn probably the best modeling system would combine numbers with human observation.
  4. I noticed that too. LV opening lines are waiting for Sagarin Predictor column. Usually very accurate. However, dismiss and ignore September Sag's ratings/predictors. BTW, Sag's said MSU favored by 7.5 points against our Huskers ...... BEFORE Vegas opening lines. Jeff Sagarin is the best by far in mid-October thru the end (IMO) I found a huge database of rating systems, vegas lines, and final scores and did a massive study (becuase I wanted to bet based on sagarin if it were that simple!) and found that his lines, while good, weren't better at predicting game outcomes than the vegas lines were.
  5. Welcome to the board. Can you expand on this a little better? Not to sound rude but that is general thinking and kind of obvious. Sure, but it wasn't really a modeling comment, more of just a person comment i.e. look how your rank has been hovering just outside the top 25, you know what I bet would fix that.. Anyway, a decisive win over sparty looks like it would bump nebraska up from 31 to 21. A close win to 26.
  6. Well, Sagarin has us at 27/28 (predictor is the only one that matters) Football Outsiders F/+ at 31 Football Outsiders FEI at 29 Football Outsiders S&P+ at 35 This model at 31 so on so forth should note that sagarin goes untethered after Week 5, so look to see if there's any marked changes after next week. Glad you found my model, happy to answer any questions. Looks like Nebraska has been hovering just outside the top 25, a decisive win this weekend against Sparty would definitely put them over the top.
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