Yet, earlier in the week you posted this entry: http://actuarygambler.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_22.html
(as instructed, click on the gray box and type Nebraska)
which says Nebraska's chances of winning out are 22.9%, and their chances of making the CFP is 8.9%. 8.9/22.9 is nowhere close to 85%. That doesn't give me much faith in whatever system or methodology you are using.
8.9% chance of making the playoffs based on where things currently stand today, and perceived ability to win out.
85% chance of making the playoffs if they actually do win out.
Yet, earlier in the week you posted this entry: http://actuarygambler.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_22.html
(as instructed, click on the gray box and type Nebraska)
which says Nebraska's chances of winning out are 22.9%, and their chances of making the CFP is 8.9%. 8.9/22.9 is nowhere close to 85%. That doesn't give me much faith in whatever system or methodology you are using.
Thanks, it's a good observation. The 22.9% number you're citing is Nebraska's chance to win every remaining regular season game - it doesn't include the B1G conf championship game, which is definitely something I should be clearer about. But they're around 50/50 to win the b1g title game as a 1 loss team; if you add that into the calculations you're doing it adds up.