Do you think that this is true for most teams? (I'm asking, not criticizing.) I wonder how much the typical team would improve if you could eliminate their worst 5% of plays? Or do we give up more big plays than the average team? It sure seems like we give up a lot of big plays.
I'm going to cherry pick a team that is about 30-40 ranks higher than us in total defense who has a similar SOS and use them as a comparison. They're our good friends to the east, the Missouri Tigers.
Murray State:
1st Quarter:
196 yards (66%), 14 points (100%), 31 plays = 6.32 YPP (+2.51) | Big Plays = 6 (19.3%), 120 yards (61.2%) | Adjusted = 24 plays, 76 yards = 3.17 YPP (-3.15)
2nd Quarter:
60 yards (20.2%), 0 points (0%), 17 plays = 3.53 YPP (-0.28) | Big Plays = 1 (5.88%), 13 yards (21.7%) | Adjusted = 16 plays, 47 yards = 2.94 YPP (-0.59)
3rd Quarter:
19 yards (6.4%), 0 points (0%), 13 plays = 1.46 YPP (-2.35) | Big Plays = 0 (0%), 0 yards (0%) | Adjusted = 13 plays, 19 yards = 1.46 YPP (0)
4th Quarter:
22 yards (7.4%), 0 points (0%), 15 plays = 1.47 YPP (-2.34) | Big Plays = 0 (0%), 0 yards (0%) | Adjusted = 15 plays, 22 yards = 1.47 YPP (0)
Total: 297 yards, 14 points, 78 plays = 3.81 YPP | Big Plays = 7 (8.97%), 133 yards (44.8%) | Adjusted = 71 plays, 164 yards = 2.31 YPP (-1.5)
Toledo:
1st Quarter:
83 yards (21.4%), 3 points (13%), 17 plays = 4.88 YPP (-0.90) | Big Plays = 1 (5.88%), 26 yards (31.3%) | Adjusted = 16 plays, 57 yards = 3.56 YPP (-1.32)
2nd Quarter:
95 yards (24.5%), 6 points (26.1%), 21 plays = 4.52 YPP (-1.26) | Big Plays = 3 (14.3%), 67 yards (70.5%) | Adjusted = 18 plays, 28 yards = 1.55 YPP (-2.97)
3rd Quarter:
151 yards (39%), 14 points (60.9%), 18 plays = 8.39 YPP (+2.61) | Big Plays = 4 (22.2%), 97 yards (64.2%) | Adjusted = 14 plays, 54 yards = 3.86 YPP (-4.53)
4th Quarter:
35 yards (9.04%), 0 points (0%), 11 plays = 3.18 YPP (-2.60) | Big Plays = 1 (9.09%), 18 yards (51.4%) | Adjusted = 10 plays, 17 yards = 1.7 YPP (-1.48)
Total: 387 yards, 23 points, 67 plays = 5.78 YPP | Big Plays = 9 (13.4%), 208 yards (53.7%) | Adjusted = 58 plays, 179 yards = 3.09 YPP (-2.69)
Indiana:
1st Quarter:
59 yards (12.4%), 0 points (0%), 20 plays = 2.95 YPP (-3.47) | Big Plays = 1 (5%), 15 yards (25.4%) | Adjusted = 19 plays, 44 yards = 2.31 YPP (-0.64)
2nd Quarter:
185 yards (38.9%), 14 points (50%), 23 plays = 8.04 YPP (+1.62) | Big Plays = 4 (17.4%), 125 yards (67.6%) | Adjusted = 19 plays, 60 yards = 3.16 YPP (-4.88)
3rd Quarter:
23 yards (4.84%), 0 points (0%), 15 plays = 1.53 YPP (-4.89) | Big Plays = 0 (0%), 0 yards (0%) | Adjusted = 15 plays, 23 yards = 1.53 YPP (0)
4th Quarter:
158 yards (33.3%), 14 points (50%), 16 plays = 9.87 YPP (+3.45) | Big Plays = 5 (31.2%), 154 yards (97.5%) | Adjusted = 11 plays, 4 yards = 0.36 YPP (-9.51)
Total: 475 yards, 28 points, 74 plays = 6.42 YPP | Big Plays = 10 (13.5%), 294 yards (61.9%) | Adjusted = 64 plays, 181 yards = 2.83 YPP (-3.59)
Arkansas State:
1st Quarter:
155 yards, 6 points, 26 plays = 5.96 YPP (+1.34) | Big Plays = 5 (19.2%), 90 yards (58.1%) | Adjusted = 21 plays, 65 yards = 3.09 YPP (-2.87)
2nd Quarter:
125 yards, 7 points, 28 plays = 4.46 YPP (-0.16) | Big Plays = 4 (14.3%), 95 yards (76%) | Adjusted = 24 plays, 30 yards = 1.25 YPP (-3.21)
3rd Quarter:
67 yards, 3 points, 18 plays = 3.72 YPP (-0.90) | Big Plays = 1 (5.55%), 28 yards (41.8%) | Adjusted = 17 plays, 39 yards = 2.29 YPP (-1.43)
4th Quarter:
43 yards, 3 points, 20 plays = 2.15 YPP (-2.47) | Big Plays = 1 (5%), 17 yards (39.5%) | Adjusted = 19 plays, 26 yards = 1.37 YPP (-0.85)
Total: 425 yards, 19 points, 92 plays = 4.62 YPP | Big Plays = 11 (11.9%) 230 yards (54.1%) | Adjusted = 81 plays, 195 yards = 2.41 YPP (-2.21)
OVERALL: 1584 yards, 84 points, 311 plays = 5.09 YPP | Big Plays = 37 (11.9%), 865 yards (54.6%) | Adjusted = 274 plays, 719 yards = 2.62 YPP (-2.47)
NEBRASKA: 1855 yards, 108 points, 288 plays = 6.44 YPP | Big Plays = 53 (18.4%), 1145 yards (61.7%) | Adjusted = 235 plays, 710 yards = 3.02 YPP (-3.42)
Ideally, you want the overall YPP number to be low, and you want the difference between the overall YPP and the adjusted YPP to be as small as possible.