Illinois

Junior, I don't know. I suppose any time ever the argument could be made about whether it was Team A doing a good job or Team B just being terrible.
Sure, that's a fair point. However, I think for this particular game you have to look at the circumstances surrounding it and realize that UCLA had fair reasons to be sluggish in that first half. Once they shook off the cobwebs, they did whatever they wanted.

 
Lots of hand wringing. How bout we wait and see what happens at the Illinois game before we pass judgement. If NU loses by 20 than they may do a Lane Kiffin on BP. I doubt it but who knows.

Lets just wait and see.

 
Disturbing results:

Texas St. 42 Wyoming 21

Boise St who is a down year beat S.Miss by 60-7.
not really helping our record.
Yes, Texas State beat Wyoming so now we count that game as a loss instead of a win. Boise State beat Southern Miss by more than we did so now that game is a loss. North Dakota State beat South Dakota State so now that game is a loss.

Sh*t, we're 0-4 now. WHY HAVEN'T WE FIRED BO?!?
just goes to show you we aren't as good as we thought. we are who we thought we are.
I've never read more twisted logic.

We might as well just pack it in against Illinois, because they competed with #16 Washington whereas we apparently got stomped by UCLA who, guess what, happened to also be ranked #16.

Ok so- If the first 4 opps we played were all 4-1 now with the exception of UCLA at 5-0- AND those teams looked good doing it, outscoring the opps by a combined 950- 125 wouldnt that mean that maybe weve played against pretty good competition and maybe we are a little better than middle of the road?

On the other hand- if the first 4 opps we played were all 0-5 with the exception of UCLA at 1-4 and getting blown out by everyone theyve played and outscored 125-950, wouldnt that mean that maybe weve played against some pretty poor competition and maybe we are less than middle of the road and should be concerned?

I was impressed by how Illinois played against Cincy on TV. Is Cincy great? nope, but this isnt the layup most people thought it would be in August. This NU team misses layups.

Hope NU plays well as always no matter who is lined up.

 
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just goes to show you we aren't as good as we thought. we are who we thought we are.
If we are who we thought we are and we aren't as good as we thought then we...My brain hurts... From this post to many others the problem isn't the team but our own expectations of the team. If we expected mediocre then we would be performing as expected. I think you meant we were hoping to be good but now are realizing that we still have some major problems. Which makes this whole season unpredictable. Gonna be fun to watch this play out. My hope is just to end ranked. We have a couple of actual quarterbacks in the pipeline and had a better recruiting class this year on D. If we pull in yet another decent recruiting class to fill in those weak spots (oline, dline) we could be set for a good run. If we still pull this crap we are now...even I may even bite the bullet and say it's time for a change.

 
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Do you think that this is true for most teams? (I'm asking, not criticizing.) I wonder how much the typical team would improve if you could eliminate their worst 5% of plays? Or do we give up more big plays than the average team? It sure seems like we give up a lot of big plays.
I'm going to cherry pick a team that is about 30-40 ranks higher than us in total defense who has a similar SOS and use them as a comparison. They're our good friends to the east, the Missouri Tigers.

Murray State:

1st Quarter:

196 yards (66%), 14 points (100%), 31 plays = 6.32 YPP (+2.51) | Big Plays = 6 (19.3%), 120 yards (61.2%) | Adjusted = 24 plays, 76 yards = 3.17 YPP (-3.15)

2nd Quarter:

60 yards (20.2%), 0 points (0%), 17 plays = 3.53 YPP (-0.28) | Big Plays = 1 (5.88%), 13 yards (21.7%) | Adjusted = 16 plays, 47 yards = 2.94 YPP (-0.59)

3rd Quarter:

19 yards (6.4%), 0 points (0%), 13 plays = 1.46 YPP (-2.35) | Big Plays = 0 (0%), 0 yards (0%) | Adjusted = 13 plays, 19 yards = 1.46 YPP (0)

4th Quarter:

22 yards (7.4%), 0 points (0%), 15 plays = 1.47 YPP (-2.34) | Big Plays = 0 (0%), 0 yards (0%) | Adjusted = 15 plays, 22 yards = 1.47 YPP (0)

Total: 297 yards, 14 points, 78 plays = 3.81 YPP | Big Plays = 7 (8.97%), 133 yards (44.8%) | Adjusted = 71 plays, 164 yards = 2.31 YPP (-1.5)

Toledo:

1st Quarter:

83 yards (21.4%), 3 points (13%), 17 plays = 4.88 YPP (-0.90) | Big Plays = 1 (5.88%), 26 yards (31.3%) | Adjusted = 16 plays, 57 yards = 3.56 YPP (-1.32)

2nd Quarter:

95 yards (24.5%), 6 points (26.1%), 21 plays = 4.52 YPP (-1.26) | Big Plays = 3 (14.3%), 67 yards (70.5%) | Adjusted = 18 plays, 28 yards = 1.55 YPP (-2.97)

3rd Quarter:

151 yards (39%), 14 points (60.9%), 18 plays = 8.39 YPP (+2.61) | Big Plays = 4 (22.2%), 97 yards (64.2%) | Adjusted = 14 plays, 54 yards = 3.86 YPP (-4.53)

4th Quarter:

35 yards (9.04%), 0 points (0%), 11 plays = 3.18 YPP (-2.60) | Big Plays = 1 (9.09%), 18 yards (51.4%) | Adjusted = 10 plays, 17 yards = 1.7 YPP (-1.48)

Total: 387 yards, 23 points, 67 plays = 5.78 YPP | Big Plays = 9 (13.4%), 208 yards (53.7%) | Adjusted = 58 plays, 179 yards = 3.09 YPP (-2.69)

Indiana:

1st Quarter:

59 yards (12.4%), 0 points (0%), 20 plays = 2.95 YPP (-3.47) | Big Plays = 1 (5%), 15 yards (25.4%) | Adjusted = 19 plays, 44 yards = 2.31 YPP (-0.64)

2nd Quarter:

185 yards (38.9%), 14 points (50%), 23 plays = 8.04 YPP (+1.62) | Big Plays = 4 (17.4%), 125 yards (67.6%) | Adjusted = 19 plays, 60 yards = 3.16 YPP (-4.88)

3rd Quarter:

23 yards (4.84%), 0 points (0%), 15 plays = 1.53 YPP (-4.89) | Big Plays = 0 (0%), 0 yards (0%) | Adjusted = 15 plays, 23 yards = 1.53 YPP (0)

4th Quarter:

158 yards (33.3%), 14 points (50%), 16 plays = 9.87 YPP (+3.45) | Big Plays = 5 (31.2%), 154 yards (97.5%) | Adjusted = 11 plays, 4 yards = 0.36 YPP (-9.51)

Total: 475 yards, 28 points, 74 plays = 6.42 YPP | Big Plays = 10 (13.5%), 294 yards (61.9%) | Adjusted = 64 plays, 181 yards = 2.83 YPP (-3.59)

Arkansas State:

1st Quarter:

155 yards, 6 points, 26 plays = 5.96 YPP (+1.34) | Big Plays = 5 (19.2%), 90 yards (58.1%) | Adjusted = 21 plays, 65 yards = 3.09 YPP (-2.87)

2nd Quarter:

125 yards, 7 points, 28 plays = 4.46 YPP (-0.16) | Big Plays = 4 (14.3%), 95 yards (76%) | Adjusted = 24 plays, 30 yards = 1.25 YPP (-3.21)

3rd Quarter:

67 yards, 3 points, 18 plays = 3.72 YPP (-0.90) | Big Plays = 1 (5.55%), 28 yards (41.8%) | Adjusted = 17 plays, 39 yards = 2.29 YPP (-1.43)

4th Quarter:

43 yards, 3 points, 20 plays = 2.15 YPP (-2.47) | Big Plays = 1 (5%), 17 yards (39.5%) | Adjusted = 19 plays, 26 yards = 1.37 YPP (-0.85)

Total: 425 yards, 19 points, 92 plays = 4.62 YPP | Big Plays = 11 (11.9%) 230 yards (54.1%) | Adjusted = 81 plays, 195 yards = 2.41 YPP (-2.21)

OVERALL: 1584 yards, 84 points, 311 plays = 5.09 YPP | Big Plays = 37 (11.9%), 865 yards (54.6%) | Adjusted = 274 plays, 719 yards = 2.62 YPP (-2.47)

NEBRASKA: 1855 yards, 108 points, 288 plays = 6.44 YPP | Big Plays = 53 (18.4%), 1145 yards (61.7%) | Adjusted = 235 plays, 710 yards = 3.02 YPP (-3.42)

Ideally, you want the overall YPP number to be low, and you want the difference between the overall YPP and the adjusted YPP to be as small as possible.

 
Wait, Wyoming lost to Texas State by 21 points? Holy jeez.

I thought we were supposed to be secretly awesome because Wyoming is awesome. . .

 
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So Texas St beats WYO, so we must suck worse than we think? Do you not account for the other games that WYO won? They had a flat game, for once in 5 games. People read into things way too much.

I personally think we are much better than we are, just need to fix the common problems with this defense. I won't hold my breathe on it happening, but we aren't far from a "decent" defense. Fix tackling issues, we fix our biggest problem. Fix our Safety issue, we fix the 2nd weakest part, IMO, that is fixed by starting C Jax.

 
Opponent comparison is a critical and completely valid way to compare SoS and how good a team really is. That said, teams can have bad games and their opponents can have a stroke of luck or a really good performance. How many times have we seen Team A beat Team B, Team B beat Team C, and then Team C goes on to beat Team A? Just something to keep in mind.

 
Opponent comparison is a critical and completely valid way to compare SoS and how good a team really is. That said, teams can have bad games and their opponents can have a stroke of luck or a really good performance. How many times have we seen Team A beat Team B, Team B beat Team C, and then Team C goes on to beat Team A? Just something to keep in mind.
Happens every year.

Remember the UCONN team that =Michigan needed a 4th quarter comeback against to win 24-21?

You know, the same UCONN team that lost to Towson in week 1?

They got skull drug 41-12 by Buffalo.

 
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