Michigan State is Ours . . .

[C N Red]

I think our win probabilities at Wiscy and Sparty are around 80%. No facts or numbers to back it up but I'm sure I'm right.

 

[It'sNotAFakeID]

See, a poster brought up TM...I have coached for awhile (I suck at it) but playing a team with a guy that can flat out take it to the house at anytime (As we know TM could) is soooooo freaking hard to prepare for, it is maddening when a kid takes a wrong step, when a kid doesn't keep shoulders square and so on and so on, then BAM, you let up a TD...

There is not really that worry with TA. It makes a HUGE difference.

Oh dear Lord.
Is this what hell is like?

I'd much rather have TA than TM going into this game. Fo sho.
I'll take the kid that makes you miss and kills you for 12 all night than the guy that breaks a huge one for 60 and a TD but puts us on the edge of sharting every time he bread-loaves his carries or lets it rip downfield.

I'd love to have TM back for a game like this. He did go 2-0 against the Spartans afterall and we know how last year went with TA at the helm.

Tommy is still a threat to run anytime, and he can go for a land dragon if not given enough respect. Narduzzi is going to get about 5 hours of sleep this whole week trying to prepare for our offense.

 

[Danny Bateman]

I'd say we have a 60% chance of winning both those games... every time.

 

[HuskerCarter]

Who has nebraska beaten? Nobody. Michigan state was in control most of the Oregon game. It will be a close one and can go either way

Miami and Illinois are better than any team MSU has beaten so far. I think NU wins easily if the turnovers are even or in our favor. I would also like the NU OL to cut the penalties in half.

They had Oregon on the ropes, until the 3rd quarter when they blew the lead.

 

[tschu]

Everything that is a predicative number is just an educated guess. It is never truly possible to know what the exact win probability of a matchup is - the only way to truly know would be to have the two teams play an infinite number of times and record the percentage that each one wins. I think that should go without saying.

So now that the disclaimer is out of the way

Based on the spread, which is 9.5 right now, that spread historically means a 71% chance of the favorite winning. Sagarin's model puts the spread at 10.1 which historically is 75% win prob.

This model http://actuarygambler.blogspot.com/ puts us at 30% chance of winning

The F+ models that SBNation puts out are more complex in that one of the creators actually spits out the win probabilities based on their ratings. I don't have the capability to turn their rating into a probability exactly, because I don't have their formula, but an eyeball based on the rating is ~65% MSU. We'll find out on Thursday when it's posted.

We can also figure what the betting market puts the win probability at based on the moneyline which doesn't necessarily exactly mirror spread distributions based on what the point total of the game is (7 points obviously is more significant in a low-scoring game than it does in a high-scoring one) so when the first ML odds are out, possibly tomorrow, we can look at what Vegas and the sharps think.

So again. 30% is an aggreggate of the best guesses of the most historically reliable stuff I could find, as well as betting markets which are inherently an aggregate of all information and analysis of every kind available to every bettor. I'd put even more stock in the F+ prediction when that is released, since it has been historically as good as the betting market.

I am not a statistician - I leave that up to the pros. I merely know how to find and evaluate information.

What do you think our chance of winning is? I'm pretty glad to take a 1 of 3 chance going into a road game at a frightening top-10 team

 

[NUpolo8]

See, a poster brought up TM...I have coached for awhile (I suck at it) but playing a team with a guy that can flat out take it to the house at anytime (As we know TM could) is soooooo freaking hard to prepare for, it is maddening when a kid takes a wrong step, when a kid doesn't keep shoulders square and so on and so on, then BAM, you let up a TD...

There is not really that worry with TA. It makes a HUGE difference.

Oh dear Lord.Is this what hell is like?

I'd much rather have TA than TM going into this game. Fo sho.
I'll take the kid that makes you miss and kills you for 12 all night than the guy that breaks a huge one for 60 and a TD but puts us on the edge of sharting every time he bread-loaves his carries or lets it rip downfield.

I'd love to have TM back for a game like this. He did go 2-0 against the Spartans afterall and we know how last year went with TA at the helm.

Tommy is still a threat to run anytime, and he can go for a land dragon if not given enough respect. Narduzzi is going to get about 5 hours of sleep this whole week trying to prepare for our offense.

I'm quite sure after Mariota he's got a few notes.

 

[Branno]

See, a poster brought up TM...I have coached for awhile (I suck at it) but playing a team with a guy that can flat out take it to the house at anytime (As we know TM could) is soooooo freaking hard to prepare for, it is maddening when a kid takes a wrong step, when a kid doesn't keep shoulders square and so on and so on, then BAM, you let up a TD...

There is not really that worry with TA. It makes a HUGE difference.

Oh dear Lord.
Is this what hell is like?

I'd much rather have TA than TM going into this game. Fo sho.
I'll take the kid that makes you miss and kills you for 12 all night than the guy that breaks a huge one for 60 and a TD but puts us on the edge of sharting every time he bread-loaves his carries or lets it rip downfield.

I'd love to have TM back for a game like this. He did go 2-0 against the Spartans afterall and we know how last year went with TA at the helm.

Tommy is still a threat to run anytime, and he can go for a land dragon if not given enough respect. Narduzzi is going to get about 5 hours of sleep this whole week trying to prepare for our offense.

I highly doubt Narduzzi is losing any sleep over this game, in fact I think he's really excited for it after last year. I think he might be misguided in that excitement, but he doesn't fear Tommy Armstrong.

 

[tschu]

I'd say we have a 60% chance of winning both those games... every time.

:

 

[It'sNotAFakeID]

I'm quite sure after Mariota he's got a few notes.

I keep forgetting they played Oregon this year.

 

[irafreak]

Call me an optimist, Sun, but I go into every game thinking we are going to win. Some guys I feel a lot better about that then others, but I think we will win at MSU next week. And I actually expect that we will. That is a difference from years past... I actually feel confident that we can do it. From what we've seen from Ameer, from Tommy, from the rest of the offense... from Randy, the rest of the DL, the improvement of the secondary and Zaire.... I think we've got a very good shot next weekend. I, for one, have not given up on having high goals. Call me crazy, but I could legitimately see us running the table this year.

We're going to need some luck, and some games will be tighter than others, but it can definitely be done, with the landscape of the Big 10 the way it is right now.

But I've learned to take every game as they come. Week by week. Perhaps I'm cherry picking points to make me feel better about our chances next week, but I feel really good as of right now.

100% agree with your thinking. I think we can run the table, too. However, I'm amazed at the vast number of people who think it's impossible.

Where are you seeing all these posts declaring Nebraska having no chance to win? The exaggeration in these threads...

 

[Branno]

Call me an optimist, Sun, but I go into every game thinking we are going to win. Some guys I feel a lot better about that then others, but I think we will win at MSU next week. And I actually expect that we will. That is a difference from years past... I actually feel confident that we can do it. From what we've seen from Ameer, from Tommy, from the rest of the offense... from Randy, the rest of the DL, the improvement of the secondary and Zaire.... I think we've got a very good shot next weekend. I, for one, have not given up on having high goals. Call me crazy, but I could legitimately see us running the table this year.

We're going to need some luck, and some games will be tighter than others, but it can definitely be done, with the landscape of the Big 10 the way it is right now.

But I've learned to take every game as they come. Week by week. Perhaps I'm cherry picking points to make me feel better about our chances next week, but I feel really good as of right now.

100% agree with your thinking. I think we can run the table, too. However, I'm amazed at the vast number of people who think it's impossible.

Where are you seeing all these posts declaring Nebraska having no chance to win? The exaggeration in these threads...

Did you miss pretty much every post here after the McNeese State game?

 

[Danny Bateman]

Thanks for explaining the methodology behind your 30% guess tschu. The problem I have with that prediction is my contention that polls are an inaccurate, sometimes biased portrayal of a teams true talent or chance to win.

Many on here have been decrying the polls as unimportant to our progress. It's easy to see why. With that many SEC teams that high, it's not unreasonable to think a handful of them are overrated and ranked too high. This could be the case with Sparty. They could have their lofty ranking as a nod to their accomplishments last year. They had a hell of a year.

But it's a new season now.

Vegas will set lines on large part based on the polls as they're generally a decent predictor of talent, especially as the year goes on. But the season is still relatively young and if MSU has a flawed ranking because of last year, the line will reflect that. And if the line us flawed, the figure you quoted as our chance to win would be wrong.

There is another good post in the AP poll thread that showed Wiscy and OSU were 2 of the top 3 AP overrated teams compared to conputer rankings. I choose to believe MSU is in that overrated B1G class as well.

But you already said it best. A predictive number is just... A guess. In the end we have to just play the game. Can't wait. GBR!!!

 

[Landlord]

I seriously believe some of you are carrying your perception of MSU from last year over into this year.

Their defense is not as good as last year. Dennard is gone. That is huge. So is Max Bullough, a key cog at MLB.

Their offense doesn't really scare me at all. If we play assignment sound football with solid secondary play (meaning no busted bomb TDs like we gifted Allison last night) and tackle well, we have nothing to be afriad of. Of course we'll have to stick our nose in and stop the run, but Bo knows that. We held them to 168 on the yard last year, which is damn good against a run-first team.

Do not have the impression this is MSU of 2013. It's not. It may be just as talented, but that remains to be seen. They have had one test so far, and failed. They haven't been tested beyond that. And we're coming.

This is literally, and I literally mean literally, what everyone said last year about the same team, except in the opposite direction.

Without fail, the week before a big game on Huskerboard every year, no matter what, goes the same way. "They aren't as good as last year and we are better than last year" followed by seemingly rational reasons why we should win said game against team that has a much better chance of winning than we do.

Then we lose.

Then, the next season, we forget that we said all those things, and we say them all again. "Last year was last year and we're a totally different team this year there's no way we shouldn't be able to win!"

Rinse, wash, repeat, ad nauseam.

 

[jsneb83]

I seriously believe some of you are carrying your perception of MSU from last year over into this year.

Their defense is not as good as last year. Dennard is gone. That is huge. So is Max Bullough, a key cog at MLB.

Their offense doesn't really scare me at all. If we play assignment sound football with solid secondary play (meaning no busted bomb TDs like we gifted Allison last night) and tackle well, we have nothing to be afriad of. Of course we'll have to stick our nose in and stop the run, but Bo knows that. We held them to 168 on the yard last year, which is damn good against a run-first team.

Do not have the impression this is MSU of 2013. It's not. It may be just as talented, but that remains to be seen. They have had one test so far, and failed. They haven't been tested beyond that. And we're coming.

This is literally, and I literally mean literally, what everyone said last year about the same team, except in the opposite direction.

Without fail, the week before a big game on Huskerboard every year, no matter what, goes the same way. "They aren't as good as last year and we are better than last year" followed by seemingly rational reasons why we should win said game against team that has a much better chance of winning than we do.

Then we lose.

Then, the next season, we forget that we said all those things, and we say them all again. "Last year was last year and we're a totally different team this year there's no way we shouldn't be able to win!"

Rinse, wash, repeat, ad nauseam.

Isn't that being, oh I don't know, a fan?

 

[Count 'Bility]

See, a poster brought up TM...I have coached for awhile (I suck at it) but playing a team with a guy that can flat out take it to the house at anytime (As we know TM could) is soooooo freaking hard to prepare for, it is maddening when a kid takes a wrong step, when a kid doesn't keep shoulders square and so on and so on, then BAM, you let up a TD...

There is not really that worry with TA. It makes a HUGE difference.

Oh dear Lord.
Is this what hell is like?

I'd much rather have TA than TM going into this game. Fo sho.
I'll take the kid that makes you miss and kills you for 12 all night than the guy that breaks a huge one for 60 and a TD but puts us on the edge of sharting every time he bread-loaves his carries or lets it rip downfield.

I'd love to have TM back for a game like this. He did go 2-0 against the Spartans afterall and we know how last year went with TA at the helm.

Youre not serious are you?