tschu
Banned
We're at the point of the season where we know a little bit about this team, we know a little bit about the other teams around the nation, and while the playoff race is still wide open it's beginning to at least form some semblence of a shape.
Before I get to Nebraska, let's take a look at the wider playoff picture. So who controls their own destiny, assuming they win out? (Don't kill me if I forgot someone, and feel free to disagree considering this list is simply pulled from the brain of tschu and nowhere else)
The Undefeateds - these teams would clearly be in
Florida State
Mississippi State
Ole Miss
The Obvious 1-loss teams - these teams are likely >98% or something to be in if they win out. Essentially locks.
Auburn
Alabama
Georgia
Oregon
Kansas State
Notre Dame
The Semi-Obvious 1-loss teams - not total locks and may need a sliver of help, but still very very likely to be in
Michigan State - this one is tough since it depends a bit on how Oregon finishes. Honestly could be either group.
Ohio State
TCU
Baylor
Arizona State
Arizona
Utah
2-loss teams with a (probably quite small) chance
Oklahoma
West Virginia
LSU
Clemson
So where does Nebraska fit in? Well, probably in the Semi-Obvious 1-loss group with MSU and Ohio State. There are a lot of scenarios out there where we have an FSU team with few remaining challenges yet, a Notre Dame team with a very manageable schedule, and two SEC teams getting in (Say Alabama beats Ole Miss for Ole Miss's only loss or something similar - two very deserving 1-loss teams which are inarguably better than Nebraska would both by vying for the spot. And I haven't even touched on the potential Pac-12 champ, but you kind of get the picture. So, we may need some help.
Now fortunately, it's still early. Many of these 1-loss teams and even undefeateds are going to weed themselves out and the picture will be a ton clearer by mid-November. It's way way to early to start projecting exact scenarios - it would be an exercise in futility. There are simply too many ways that everything could play out.
But one thing we do know is that to have a chance, we must win out. And what are the chances of that?
Using Sagarin's predictor, I calculated spread values for each of our remaining games since it's pretty much the most objective way of determining this sort of thing. Then I converted each spread to a win probability using a formula I got from a stats guy who does CFB spread/probability work a lot - the resulting win probabilities can be multiplied to get the chance that we win out (50% probabilities were used for spreads under 2 due to margin of error, and an average of MSU/tOSU's ratings was used for the opponent in the B1GCCG since it will almost certainly be one of those two teams, and those two teams already have nearly identical predictor ratings) In addition, you can calculate how many total wins we're expected to get from our remaining schedule to estimate a final record.
So, our chance of winning out is about 12% using the Sagarin data. This includes playing in the Big Ten championship game. In addition, the expected record for our remaining regular season games is roughly 4-1 for a final record of 10-2 (which may or may not mean a berth to the title game).
Of course, I don't think that winning out necessarily guarantees Nebraska a berth to the title game - I think that it's absolutely possible we could be snubbed depending on the scenario. But I think that a 12-1 Nebraska would certainly have a >50% chance of getting in. So in total, a 12% chance isn't very high. At all. But, it's certainly not a zero. Just gotta take care of business.
Before I get to Nebraska, let's take a look at the wider playoff picture. So who controls their own destiny, assuming they win out? (Don't kill me if I forgot someone, and feel free to disagree considering this list is simply pulled from the brain of tschu and nowhere else)
The Undefeateds - these teams would clearly be in
Florida State
Mississippi State
Ole Miss
The Obvious 1-loss teams - these teams are likely >98% or something to be in if they win out. Essentially locks.
Auburn
Alabama
Georgia
Oregon
Kansas State
Notre Dame
The Semi-Obvious 1-loss teams - not total locks and may need a sliver of help, but still very very likely to be in
Michigan State - this one is tough since it depends a bit on how Oregon finishes. Honestly could be either group.
Ohio State
TCU
Baylor
Arizona State
Arizona
Utah
2-loss teams with a (probably quite small) chance
Oklahoma
West Virginia
LSU
Clemson
So where does Nebraska fit in? Well, probably in the Semi-Obvious 1-loss group with MSU and Ohio State. There are a lot of scenarios out there where we have an FSU team with few remaining challenges yet, a Notre Dame team with a very manageable schedule, and two SEC teams getting in (Say Alabama beats Ole Miss for Ole Miss's only loss or something similar - two very deserving 1-loss teams which are inarguably better than Nebraska would both by vying for the spot. And I haven't even touched on the potential Pac-12 champ, but you kind of get the picture. So, we may need some help.
Now fortunately, it's still early. Many of these 1-loss teams and even undefeateds are going to weed themselves out and the picture will be a ton clearer by mid-November. It's way way to early to start projecting exact scenarios - it would be an exercise in futility. There are simply too many ways that everything could play out.
But one thing we do know is that to have a chance, we must win out. And what are the chances of that?
Using Sagarin's predictor, I calculated spread values for each of our remaining games since it's pretty much the most objective way of determining this sort of thing. Then I converted each spread to a win probability using a formula I got from a stats guy who does CFB spread/probability work a lot - the resulting win probabilities can be multiplied to get the chance that we win out (50% probabilities were used for spreads under 2 due to margin of error, and an average of MSU/tOSU's ratings was used for the opponent in the B1GCCG since it will almost certainly be one of those two teams, and those two teams already have nearly identical predictor ratings) In addition, you can calculate how many total wins we're expected to get from our remaining schedule to estimate a final record.
So, our chance of winning out is about 12% using the Sagarin data. This includes playing in the Big Ten championship game. In addition, the expected record for our remaining regular season games is roughly 4-1 for a final record of 10-2 (which may or may not mean a berth to the title game).
Of course, I don't think that winning out necessarily guarantees Nebraska a berth to the title game - I think that it's absolutely possible we could be snubbed depending on the scenario. But I think that a 12-1 Nebraska would certainly have a >50% chance of getting in. So in total, a 12% chance isn't very high. At all. But, it's certainly not a zero. Just gotta take care of business.
