Conference Comparison per Sagarin

[Mavric]

Just because sd'sker is a great apostrophist guy, here is the current conference comparison when ordering teams per Sagarin's rankings.

Not sure how this will look best. The original suggestion was B1G vs. SEC so I'll start there. Sagarin Predictor rating is included to show difference between teams.

1 - Mississippi 96.17 - Michigan State 87.92

2 - Alabama 96.08 - Ohio State 86.72

3 - Auburn 95.01 - Wisconsin 86.42

4 - LSU 90.61 - Nebraska 84.10

5 - Georgia 90.27 - Iowa 77.33

6 - Mississippi State 89.51 - Maryland 75.02

7 - Texas A&M 82.70 - Minnesota 72.71

8 - Florida 82.32 - Penn State 72.42

9 - Arkansas 81.48 - Michigan 69.92

10 - Tennessee 81.47 - Northwestern 69.12

11 - Missouri 79.89 - Indiana 65.37

12 - South Carolina 77.43 - Purdue 66.33

13 - Kentucky 74.05 - Rutgers 64.29

14 - Vanderbilt 59.78 - Illinois 63.39

So the SEC team would be a one to two touchdown favorite on a neutral field. Except Vanderbilt. Illinois could take them.

 

[Mavric]

B1G vs. Big XII

1 - Michigan State 87.92 - Oklahoma 93.43
2 - Ohio State 86.72 - TCU 91.29
3 - Wisconsin 86.42 - Baylor 89.11
4 - Nebraska 84.10 - Kansas State 88.93
5 - Iowa 77.33 - West Virginia 83.81
6 - Maryland 75.02 - Texas 74.90
7 - Minnesota 72.71 - Oklahoma State 71.54
8 - Penn State 72.42 - Iowa State 68.83
9 - Michigan 69.92 - Texas Tech 64.80
10 - Northwestern 69.12 - Kansas 56.90
11 - Indiana 65.37
12 - Purdue 66.33
13 - Rutgers 64.29
14 - Illinois 63.39

The Big XII would be a one score favorite for the first five then the B1G would be favored in the other five on a straight line-up. Not sure if allowance should be made for unequal amount of teams but even if you moved the Big XII down a spot after every three teams it wouldn't change much.

 

[Mavric]

B1G vs. Pac-12

1 - Michigan State 87.92 - Oregon 90.26
2 - Ohio State 86.72 - USC 85.79

3 - Wisconsin 86.42 - UCLA 83.58
4 - Nebraska 84.10 - Stanford 82.78
5 - Iowa 77.33 - Arizona State 82.73
6 - Maryland 75.02 - Utah 82.35
7 - Minnesota 72.71 - Arizona 79.86
8 - Penn State 72.42 - Washington 76.07
9 - Michigan 69.92 - California 73.04
10 - Northwestern 69.12 - Oregon State 69.55
11 - Indiana 65.37 - Washington State 69.26
12 - Purdue 66.33 - Colorado 66.06
13 - Rutgers 64.29
14 - Illinois 63.39

Technically the Pac-12 leads 8-4 but six matchups are within a field goal (including the top four where the B1G has a 3-1 advantage) and the other six are basically within a touchdown so it's pretty even.

 

[It'sNotAFakeID]

Nice work, Mavric.

I'm curious about the accuracy of the predictor, or if it is more accurate for other conferences or more accurate when comparing teams within conference against teams from other conferences.

 

[Mavric]

B1G vs. ACC

1 - Michigan State 87.92 - Clemson 85.76
2 - Ohio State 86.72 - Florida State 85.64
3 - Wisconsin 86.42 - Louisville 81.36
4 - Nebraska 84.10 - Miami 80.81
5 - Iowa 77.33 - Georgia Tech 77.99
6 - Maryland 75.02 - Duke 77.21
7 - Minnesota 72.71 - Virginia Tech 74.62
8 - Penn State 72.42 - Boston College 74.24
9 - Michigan 69.92 - Virginia 71.87
10 - Northwestern 69.12 - Pittsburgh 71.21
11 - Indiana 65.37 - Syracuse 70.50
12 - Purdue 66.33 - North Carolina 69.98
13 - Rutgers 64.29 - NC State 68.82
14 - Illinois 63.39 - Wake Forest 55.90

B1G wins the first four, ACC wins the next nine (seven within a FG) before Illinois continues to carry the banner.

 

[Mavric]

Nice work, Mavric.

I'm curious about the accuracy of the predictor, or if it is more accurate for other conferences or more accurate when comparing teams within conference against teams from other conferences.

I had the same question. I'm not sure what the methodology is or how things are weighted. I'm assuming strength of schedule is factored in which is really hurting the B1G right now with the better teams mostly playing each other late in the year.

 

[Landlord]

So we're the 3rd strongest out of 5 power conferences, according to this metric.

Okay.

 

[HeyBurke]

Sagarin's rankings are notoriously inaccurate until the end of the season. It might be better to revisit this topic in a few weeks.

 

[Mavric]

Sagarin's rankings are notoriously inaccurate until the end of the season. It might be better to revisit this topic in a few weeks.

Yeah, it will be interesting to check in again after the regular season.

 

[Amac3309]

11 - Missouri 79.89 - Indiana 65.37.

Except we have seen this game and Missouri lost to Indiana, so...

 

[sd'sker]

11 - Missouri 79.89 - Indiana 65.37.

Except we have seen this game and Missouri lost to Indiana, so...

i guess we don't need to play msu again!

 

[Kernal]

It's an interesting idea, but Sagarin's rankings are just slightly better than flipping a coin (Oklahoma as the top team in the Big 12, for example???). It's too bad we don't have any reliable way to rank teams.

 

[Amac3309]

11 - Missouri 79.89 - Indiana 65.37.

Except we have seen this game and Missouri lost to Indiana, so...

i guess we don't need to play msu again!

And you left that game thinking we were the better team? We are about 4 pts worse than MSU which sounds about right, Indiana beat Missouri by 4 with a sagrin saying they would be 14 pt underdogs

 

[Mierin]

11 - Missouri 79.89 - Indiana 65.37.

Except we have seen this game and Missouri lost to Indiana, so...

i guess we don't need to play msu again!

Most people would predict that we'd lose to MSU again (including Sagarin).

 

[sd'sker]

11 - Missouri 79.89 - Indiana 65.37.

Except we have seen this game and Missouri lost to Indiana, so...

i guess we don't need to play msu again!

Most people would predict that we'd lose to MSU again (including Sagarin).

that is my point. upsets happen.