B1G vs. SEC

Mavric said:
tschu said:
Mavric said:
Maybe you should read more.
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No I read your whole post and thought it was good and well-measured, sorry, didn't mean to imply otherwise. But cherry-picking records from a very very small subset of games using arbitrary things like "power 5 conferences" or whatever, with no distinction about the quality of the teams in the games on either side, is a huge pet peeve of mine. You learn almost zilch and it's super easy to get mislead or come to a conclusion that is either meaningless or just plain dead wrong. Plus, the power-5 distinction is so arbitrary. That subset includes a win over Texas Tech by Arkansas (Tech is terrible) but not a win by Ole Miss over Boise (who is significantly better than Tech). That's all I was saying. I just hate hate hate that sort of thing.
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Which is why I provided the context about which teams were currently ranked higher or lower, providing distinction about the quality of teams.
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Stop using logic, you are just SEC bashing Mavric!

 
Mavric said:
Adjusted for current Sagarin rankings:

SEC ranked higher: 5-2; Alabama over West Virginia, Georgia over Clemson, Indiana beat Missouri, Auburn over Kansas State, LSU over Wisconsin, Georgia Tech over Georgia, Arkansas over Texas Tech

SEC ranked lower: 0-4; Florida State over Florida, Clemson over South Carolina, Louisville over Kentucky, Oklahoma over Tennessee

So Sagarin's numbers are pretty close. Each time the SEC team was lower-ranked, they lost. Most of the time the SEC team is higher ranked, they won. That is basically what I was pointing out in my first post had you read it.

But you are not a totally dominant conference if you lose over half your games against other conferences. Doesn't mean you're not better. But not as much better as many like to think (as I also said earlier).
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Even if you are totally dominant, this completely depends on which teams are playing which other teams. But yes.

I don't think the SEC is "totally dominant"...but they are clearly the best conference again this year, and it's not a question. It's not like the Big 12 or the Pac 12 are right there as they have been in other years; there's a clear divide.

As for the Big Ten....it sucks. horribly. And if there was a Big Ten - SEC Challenge equivalent in football, the B1G would be destroyed. We'd be lucky to get 4 or 5 wins.

h88HHIT.png


*want to point out this graph is prior to last week, so some teams will shift a bit, but not much

 
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The reason for looking at the sub-set of OOC games against Power 5 opponents is to provide a more apples-to-apples comparison. Looking at intra-conference games doesn't help you compare across conferences. And different conferences have vastly different OOC strengths of schedule.

Percentage of OOC games against Power 5 opponents:

Big XII: 33.3%

Pac-12: 30.5%

B1G: 30.3%

ACC: 28.6%

SEC: 19.6%

I don't have the numbers handy but I bet the SEC leads in games against FCS opponents. To compare all OOC games isn't a level playing field. Picking only Power 5 opponents is arbitrary but logical.

 
tschu said:
Mavric said:
Adjusted for current Sagarin rankings:

SEC ranked higher: 5-2; Alabama over West Virginia, Georgia over Clemson, Indiana beat Missouri, Auburn over Kansas State, LSU over Wisconsin, Georgia Tech over Georgia, Arkansas over Texas Tech

SEC ranked lower: 0-4; Florida State over Florida, Clemson over South Carolina, Louisville over Kentucky, Oklahoma over Tennessee

So Sagarin's numbers are pretty close. Each time the SEC team was lower-ranked, they lost. Most of the time the SEC team is higher ranked, they won. That is basically what I was pointing out in my first post had you read it.

But you are not a totally dominant conference if you lose over half your games against other conferences. Doesn't mean you're not better. But not as much better as many like to think (as I also said earlier).
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Even if you are totally dominant, this completely depends on which teams are playing which other teams. But yes.

I don't think the SEC is "totally dominant"...but they are clearly the best conference again this year, and it's not a question. It's not like the Big 12 or the Pac 12 are right there as they have been in other years; there's a clear divide.

As for the Big Ten....it sucks. horribly. And if there was a Big Ten - SEC Challenge equivalent in football, the B1G would be destroyed. We'd be lucky to get 4 or 5 wins.

h88HHIT.png


*want to point out this graph is prior to last week, so some teams will shift a bit, but not much
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I don't disagree. But I thought looking at a list of teams side-by-side like that was also meaningless.
default_wink.png


 
Mavric said:
I don't disagree. But I thought looking at a list of teams side-by-side like that was also meaningless.
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No, it is. I was trying to give you a picture of how the different ratings of each team as a conference as a whole stack up, and this is the best visual way I could find to do it. The other way would be to just average or do a central mean, either way, on all of the team ratings, but I don't feel like doing math.

(Also, the main issue with the way the previous poster did it was that he made a list of standings, rather than predictive ratings, and then proceeded to pick winners of those games based on nothing but projections of his own mind. So that....was funny at least?)

 
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SEC vs. Power 5

SEC W record vs. P5 W record

4-2

SEC W record vs. P5 L record

0-1

SEC L record vs. P5 W record

0-1

SEC L record vs. P5 L record

0-0

SEC .500 record vs. P5 W record

0-2

SEC .500 record vs. P5 L record

1-0

1-1 With Advantage

4-2 Against Similar Teams (All were two winning record teams)

0-3 When Disadvantaged

 
tschu said:
Why not " >75 Sagarin" or something more logical
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On a quick glance, that would include Marshall (not helpful), Boise St, ND State (not helpful), Memphis, Colorado State, Louisiana Tech, BYU, Cincinnati, Northern Iowa, Utah State, Central Florida, Illinois State (not helpful), East Carolina, Nevada, Georgia Southern, South Dakota State and Jacksonville State.

It would exclude Iowa State, Colorado, Indiana, Purdue, Syracuse, Kansas, Vanderbilt and Wake Forest (Big XII ... ouch).

Probably not going to take that time but would be interesting.

 
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So let's review:

Ole Miss plays nobody out of conference. They finally play a Power 5 team in a bowl and .... well.....

LSU needs a frantic comeback to beat a Wisconsin team that is playing a QB that can't throw, has no Melvin Gordon for the second half and is basically pulling defensive linemen out of the stands. They play no one else OOC then lose to a Notre Dame team that had lost five of it's last six games (including Northwestern).

 
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