A Different Look at Our Defense - Yards Per Play by Opponent

[Mavric]

Lots of discussion about how good our run defense is, how bad our pass defense is and if we've been getting better.

Looking at game stats tells a lot of the story but that often brings up the "teams are throwing more on us because they can't run on us" arguments. And there is validity to those arguments.

So I was curious how we were doing against opponents compared to how they have done against other teams. And to look at it on a per play basis so it (mostly) takes out what run/pass mix they used in any particular game.

So here are each opponents' average yards per run and pass against us and against the rest of their opponents.

Rushing Stats:

Team - YPR vs. Nebraska - YPR vs. all others - Difference (negative is better for the Huskers)

BYU - 5.1 - 3.8 - +1.3

USA - 0.8 - 3.6 - -2.4

MIA - 4.8 - 4.3 - +0.5

USM - 0.5 - 5.4 - -4.9

ILL - 4.1 - 3.8 - +0.3

WIS - 4.3 - 4.1 - +0.2

MIN - 2.5 - 4.2 - -1.7

Passing Stats:

Team - YPA vs. Nebraska - YPA vs. all others - Difference (negative is better for Huskers)

BYU - 7.7 - 6.7 - +1.0

USA - 6.7 - 7.5 - -0.8

MIA - 8.8 - 8.1 - +0.7

USM - 9.7 - 8.1 - +1.6

ILL - 5.3 - 6.0 - -0.7

WIS - 6.3 - 7.4 - -1.1

MIN - 7.2 - 5.6 - +1.6

So ... a couple conclusions.

- There is truth to pointing out that part of the reason we've given up a lot of passing yards is due to volume. Teams are throwing a lot against us. They aren't doing significantly better on a per-pass basis than they are against other teams - four teams have done better, three have done worse. Although those doing better against us were doing so to a higher degree than those doing worse were (average of four positive numbers is 1.2; average of three negative numbers is 0.9). There can be an argument about why they are throwing more - is it because we're stopping the run, because it's just easy to throw on us or because we've faced some teams that just throw a lot. Probably a little of each.

- The claims that we're great at stopping the run are probably a little over-stated. Again it's a fairly mixed bag - four teams have done better against us, three have done worse. But it's also worth noting that two of the teams that did worse are almost strictly passing teams that were totally out-manned on the line. Of the five major programs we've played, four of them have actually done better running the ball against us than the rest of their opponents. So it's definitely true that our run defense has benefited from teams simply not trying to run the ball against us - for whatever reason. Although the teams we've shut down we've really shut down (average of three negative numbers is 3.0 which is pretty significant; average of four positive numbers is 0.6).

- The run defense average allowed has actually trended upward a little bit while the pass defense has trended slightly downward. However, that could also be attributed to playing passing teams early and running teams lately.

Don't know if that all really means anything but I was curious.

 

[admo]

I appreciate the time and data Mav, but Yards Per Run (or Attempt) doesn't do much for me. BYU, So. Alabama or whoever can run it just 10 times and if they get 65 yards or so, is that really a concern? I need to know how many yards the team is running on our defense in a game. That's the real deal.

And if we discuss if this group is better or worse, what are the stats going to say when you have a true freshmen linebacker out there on Day 1? Or a walkon LB (#49) that was down on the depth chart but got PT because of injuries to returning starters? Or the stats when MRI is not in the game?

I love stats but in this case it's a bit of reach. The eye test easily tells me this year the Blackshirts have toughened up against the run immensely compared to last season and years before that. The eye test clearly tells me what stats cannot do. Any stat or input to disregard this is foolish. No offense, just feel very strongly about the run defense this year and want to give credit where it's due.

 

[admo]

I would also like to think that under Bo, he could have had one of the nation's best run defenses if he wanted. Unfortunately he loved to play 6 to 8 defensive backs

Or what seemed like that....No matter who the opponent was... And even in the cold weather, run-oriented B1G.

That alone benefited the Husker opponent's momentum in games. From UCLA to Wisconsin. Need a 1st down? Just run it.

 

[Mavric]

I appreciate the time and data Mav, but Yards Per Run (or Attempt) doesn't do much for me. BYU, So. Alabama or whoever can run it just 10 times and if they get 65 yards or so, is that really a concern? I need to know how many yards the team is running on our defense in a game. That's the real deal.

The reason to look at yards per attempt is the other side of the coin that many have argued on our pass defense - "of course we're giving up a lot of passing yards because teams are throwing a lot" and "they have to throw because they can't run". I was curious if they really can't run against us or we just started the year with a lot of teams who don't run it against anyone. Giving up 65 yards rushing isn't that big of a concern but I was curious how we might expect our run defense to hold up once we face some teams that are actually pretty good running the ball. That's why I looked at yards per attempt. Put another way, is our run defense really that good or are the teams we've played just bad at running the ball? It's probably a little of both but we definitely haven't shut people down much better than the other teams that they've played.

Along the same lines, we've played the #102, #85, #108, #84, #93, #77, and #66 teams in the country in rushing attempts per game. So it's great to be the #6 team in the country in yards per game rushing but a decent amount of that is due to playing teams that are simply not running the ball very much. Even Wiscy and Minny are fairly low on that list, possibly due in some degree to pace. And thus it's also true that some of our bad pass defense stats come from the same reason - we've played the #20, #55, #21, #15, #10, #47 and #68 teams in pass attempts per game.

Like I said, I don't know if any of that tells us a whole lot. But I think average per play is a much better indicator than yards per game because it (largely) takes out variables that are out of the defense's control - mainly whether we've played passing or running teams, how fast the opposing offense runs plays and how long your own offense holds the ball.

 

[It'sNotAFakeID]

I'm curious as to what would constitute a "significant difference." Just practically speaking, +0.3 and +0.2 don't really mean much (they have to run the ball 5 times just to pick up an extra 1.5 yards) and probably shouldn't be treated much differently than 0, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

 

[Kiyoat Husker]

Interesting angle. Thanks for the data. One thing I wonder, though.

When the run is used less, it may follow that the yards-per-attempt will increase because it is used as a change up. Like play-action passing in reverse.

 

[MichiganDad3]

Thanks for pulling this data. I agree with looking at yards per attempt since it takes volume into account. The other factor I like to consider is variation. If a team only averaged 3.7 yards per attempt, but never gained less than 3 yards per attempt, then we could never stop them. On the other had, if a team averaged 7 yards per attempt, but had two 80 yards TDs, and all other carries went for less than 2 yards, then the team only scores 14 points (ignoring pass plays). That is one of the positives about our defense; while we give up a ton of passing yards, we don't give up an abnormally large number of points.

 

[MichiganDad3]

Interesting angle. Thanks for the data. One thing I wonder, though.

When the run is used less, it may follow that the yards-per-attempt will increase because it is used as a change up. Like play-action passing in reverse.

Just like the Huskers passing attack in the old days ... and Oklahoma's under Switzer.

 

[Redux]

Good info. Still, I think it's the amount of big plays an opponent gets and when they get them that seem to dictate our struggles.

 

[BigRedBuster]

There isn't one stat over the other that is more telling to look at. More information gives you a better picture of what is going on.

Sure, there is a frustration with big passing plays against our DBs. We are tied for 50th in points per game against us at 24 points. That isn't great but it isn't absolutely terrible either.

The biggest issue to me is simply not being able to get that stop at the end of the game that you need to solidify the win. All these other stats help tell the story as to why we are in the position we are in at the end of the game needing that last stop. But, when it comes right down to it, if we get 3 stops at the end of 3 games, we win those.

 

[Mavric]

I'm curious as to what would constitute a "significant difference." Just practically speaking, +0.3 and +0.2 don't really mean much (they have to run the ball 5 times just to pick up an extra 1.5 yards) and probably shouldn't be treated much differently than 0, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

I agree. Probably anything below 0.5 yards per rush is basically nothing. Not sure about passing. Probably a couple clicks more than that.

I was mainly curious about whether we were really stopping the run or just not facing running teams. Since we generally haven't "stopped" the run any better than the other teams that these teams have played, I'm not sure we've been as good as it seems like. And, by the same token, a lot of the passing yards have been because teams are throwing a lot.

 

[beorach]

I'm curious as to what would constitute a "significant difference." Just practically speaking, +0.3 and +0.2 don't really mean much (they have to run the ball 5 times just to pick up an extra 1.5 yards) and probably shouldn't be treated much differently than 0, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

For rushing defense, the range set by the national average and one standard deviation for FBS teams in games against other FBS teams to date this season is 3.36 - 5.23. The average is 4.29.

For rushing offense, it's 3.33 - 5.22. The average is 4.28.

I guess there's some rounding error there.

Nebraska's average rush per carry allowed is 3.22, which is great. The rushing TD's allowed is 8, which is pretty much average (national average is 9 with one standard deviation being equal to 5). The yards per game allowed is 91, which again compares very favorably to the average of 170.58 (with a standard deviation of 51.81).

Passing defense, as a category, has more stats but Nebraska's are all roughly average outside two. The number of completions allowed is very high for Nebraska at 178 (relative to a nati'l avg of 108.35 and a stdev of 23.58). The average passing yards allowed per game is 341.7 (relative to a nat'l avg of 232.72 and a stdev of 47.37).

 

[beorach]

I'm curious as to what would constitute a "significant difference." Just practically speaking, +0.3 and +0.2 don't really mean much (they have to run the ball 5 times just to pick up an extra 1.5 yards) and probably shouldn't be treated much differently than 0, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

I agree. Probably anything below 0.5 yards per rush is basically nothing. Not sure about passing. Probably a couple clicks more than that.

I was mainly curious about whether we were really stopping the run or just not facing running teams. Since we generally haven't "stopped" the run any better than the other teams that these teams have played, I'm not sure we've been as good as it seems like. And, by the same token, a lot of the passing yards have been because teams are throwing a lot.

The average passing attempts faced by a FBS team to date, only in games against other FBS teams, is 183.24...and one standard deviation is 37.28. Nebraska has faced 310 passing attempts.

The average rushing attempts is 222 and one standard deviation is 40. Nebraska has faced 198.

Teams are passing a lot more on Nebraska than average but they're not running less to a comparable extent. The average number of plays a defense has faced is 405 with a standard deviation equal to 59.9. Nebraska has had 508 plays run against them...so that helps explain that.

 

[BigRedBuster]

I'm curious as to what would constitute a "significant difference." Just practically speaking, +0.3 and +0.2 don't really mean much (they have to run the ball 5 times just to pick up an extra 1.5 yards) and probably shouldn't be treated much differently than 0, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

I agree. Probably anything below 0.5 yards per rush is basically nothing. Not sure about passing. Probably a couple clicks more than that.

I was mainly curious about whether we were really stopping the run or just not facing running teams. Since we generally haven't "stopped" the run any better than the other teams that these teams have played, I'm not sure we've been as good as it seems like. And, by the same token, a lot of the passing yards have been because teams are throwing a lot.

The average passing attempts faced by a FBS team to date, only in games against other FBS teams, is 183.24...and one standard deviation is 37.28. Nebraska has faced 310 passing attempts.

The average rushing attempts is 222 and one standard deviation is 40. Nebraska has faced 198.

Teams are passing a lot more on Nebraska than average but they're not running less to a comparable extent. The average number of plays a defense has faced is 405 with a standard deviation equal to 59.9. Nebraska has had 508 plays run against them...so that helps explain that.

Interesting. Does this take into account that many teams may have had a bye week? If you did this actually for plays per game, it may help.

Thanks,

 

[beorach]

I'm curious as to what would constitute a "significant difference." Just practically speaking, +0.3 and +0.2 don't really mean much (they have to run the ball 5 times just to pick up an extra 1.5 yards) and probably shouldn't be treated much differently than 0, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

I agree. Probably anything below 0.5 yards per rush is basically nothing. Not sure about passing. Probably a couple clicks more than that.

I was mainly curious about whether we were really stopping the run or just not facing running teams. Since we generally haven't "stopped" the run any better than the other teams that these teams have played, I'm not sure we've been as good as it seems like. And, by the same token, a lot of the passing yards have been because teams are throwing a lot.

The average passing attempts faced by a FBS team to date, only in games against other FBS teams, is 183.24...and one standard deviation is 37.28. Nebraska has faced 310 passing attempts.

The average rushing attempts is 222 and one standard deviation is 40. Nebraska has faced 198.

Teams are passing a lot more on Nebraska than average but they're not running less to a comparable extent. The average number of plays a defense has faced is 405 with a standard deviation equal to 59.9. Nebraska has had 508 plays run against them...so that helps explain that.

Interesting. Does this take into account that many teams may have had a bye week? If you did this actually for plays per game, it may help.

Thanks,

The total defense category doesn't have a plays per game category...but there are always total yardage and total yardage per game figures in the other categories (such that I just consider those to account for the disparity in the number of games played). The average number of games played (by FBS teams against FBS teams) is six with a standard deviation of 1. Considering we have 128 teams, though, I figure there shouldn't be any huge miss because of the matter of both bye weeks and weeks teams played FCS (?) teams. It's a fair point, of course.