Why recruiting matters, and the importance of signing day

[Husker Psycho]

However, these articles do not prove that regular top 10 classes are NECESSARY to winning a championship (though they certainly help the cause). As was pointed out, he even acknowledges that MSU and other teams are outliers even this year, just like Nebraska was an outlier in its day.

You don't know what you're talking about.

For the last 11 years in a row... without fail... 100% of the time... the team that has won the national championship has achieved the elite player metric (number of elite players on the team - 4 and 5 star players).

If a team has met that metric then they have a chance to win the national championship. If they don't meet that metric they have 0% chance to win the national title... as in zero.

Reality... fact.

Actually, you don't know what you're talking about. You're confusing past results with future returns. It's certainly an interesting trend, but there is absolutely no guarantee that this "metric" will continue to be true. And the first time a non-top-ten-recruiting team wins the title, the "metric" will shift slightly to whatever includes that champion and the previous ones (e.g. "You need a top 13 recruiting class...").

And for Mandel to call everyone else lazy about statistics is laughable - there's only 11 data points for the conclusion he's drawing!!

None of what I'm saying implies that recruiting isn't important though. Just that the evidence being used here does NOT imply future results.

More fairy tale thinking.

Yes... something happening 11 out of 11 times in a row does imply future results... especially when the thing that happened 11 out of 11 times in a row... was proven by the results on the field.

 

[Landlord]

But they didn't win... they were soundly beaten last year by a team that had met the metric... Ohio State.

No team has won the national championship in last 11 years... that did not meet that metric.

The elite player metric is a cold hearted... brutal... fact.

We need to come to grips with reality.

But you said they had zero percent chance. That is a cold hearted... brutal... lie. If Auburn misses a field goal as time expires, Oregon wins the National Championship.

 

[Husker Psycho]

But they didn't win... they were soundly beaten last year by a team that had met the metric... Ohio State.

No team has won the national championship in last 11 years... that did not meet that metric.

The elite player metric is a cold hearted... brutal... fact.

We need to come to grips with reality.

But you said they had zero percent chance. That is a cold hearted... brutal... lie. If Auburn misses a field goal as time expires, Oregon wins the National Championship.

More fairy tale thinking.

IF... is the fairy tale version of events.

Auburn won the game = reality and fact. They will go down in history... forever... as having won the game = reality and fact.

Stop being afraid of reality.

 

[NUance]

Yes, it's fairy tale thinking to do anything but extrapolate. We have X number of data points, so the trend will continue in that direction FOREVER. As of 1993 no team had ever won a national championship with a power run game featuring a triple option and fullback trap. It would have been foolish to try such a thing! Fairy tale thinking foolish!

================================

Aside from the mocking above, I agree with the premise that it's important to get good recruits. I mean, what's not to agree with? That's like saying, in order to become wealthy you need to get lots of money. Well, duh.

 

[Landlord]

But they didn't win... they were soundly beaten last year by a team that had met the metric... Ohio State.

No team has won the national championship in last 11 years... that did not meet that metric.

The elite player metric is a cold hearted... brutal... fact.

We need to come to grips with reality.

But you said they had zero percent chance. That is a cold hearted... brutal... lie. If Auburn misses a field goal as time expires, Oregon wins the National Championship.

More fairy tale thinking.

IF... is the fairy tale version of events.

Auburn won the game = reality and fact. They will go down in history... forever... as having won the game = reality and fact.

Stop being afraid of reality.

Stop using words incorrectly and we're good. I'm not really afraid of anything. Just enjoying the ride.

 

[Husker Psycho]

Yes, it's fairy tale thinking to do anything but extrapolate. We have X number of data points, so the trend will continue in that direction FOREVER. As of 1993 no team had ever won a national championship with a power run game featuring a triple option and fullback trap. It would have been foolish to try such a thing! Fairy tale thinking foolish!

================================

Aside from the mocking above, I agree with the premise that it's important to get good recruits. I mean, what's not to agree with? That's like saying, in order to become wealthy you need to get lots of money. Well, duh.

There was no bigger fan of the triple option than me.

 

[NUance]

Yes, it's fairy tale thinking to do anything but extrapolate. We have X number of data points, so the trend will continue in that direction FOREVER. As of 1993 no team had ever won a national championship with a power run game featuring a triple option and fullback trap. It would have been foolish to try such a thing! Fairy tale thinking foolish!

================================

Aside from the mocking above, I agree with the premise that it's important to get good recruits. I mean, what's not to agree with? That's like saying, in order to become wealthy you need to get lots of money. Well, duh.

There was no bigger fan of the triple option than me.

Even though the previous 11 championships had been won by teams who did not run it? Fairy tale thinking. You were doing it.

 

[Husker Psycho]

Yes, it's fairy tale thinking to do anything but extrapolate. We have X number of data points, so the trend will continue in that direction FOREVER. As of 1993 no team had ever won a national championship with a power run game featuring a triple option and fullback trap. It would have been foolish to try such a thing! Fairy tale thinking foolish!

================================

Aside from the mocking above, I agree with the premise that it's important to get good recruits. I mean, what's not to agree with? That's like saying, in order to become wealthy you need to get lots of money. Well, duh.

There was no bigger fan of the triple option than me.

Even though the previous 11 championships had been won by teams who did not run it? Fairy tale thinking. You were doing it.

The last 11 teams won with elite athletes.

Being a fan of a certain type of offense does not mean that is the only offense to run and no one made that comment... even though most of the teams winning now do have a power run offense and dual threat quarterbacks with designed quarterback run plays... you know like Ohio State. Alabama is even heading in that direction. But that's not the subject.

 

[Scratchtown]

I'd just about guarantee that the '90s NU champions didn't meet that "elite player metric."

Probably why people start with '98 or whatever.

No it probably has to do with the Internet age. Has nothing to do with NU's best teams of all time being in a time when the game and coverage of the game were and are completely different.

The fact that the "98 or whatever" thing is a freaking trend. Until some program stops the one factor all the champions have....let's not dismiss it.

It's like saying, hey Minnesota used to be a powerhouse so that means they can still play with anyone.

 

[gbr93]

Yes, it's fairy tale thinking to do anything but extrapolate. We have X number of data points, so the trend will continue in that direction FOREVER. As of 1993 no team had ever won a national championship with a power run game featuring a triple option and fullback trap. It would have been foolish to try such a thing! Fairy tale thinking foolish!

================================

Aside from the mocking above, I agree with the premise that it's important to get good recruits. I mean, what's not to agree with? That's like saying, in order to become wealthy you need to get lots of money. Well, duh.

There was no bigger fan of the triple option than me.

Even though the previous 11 championships had been won by teams who did not run it? Fairy tale thinking. You were doing it.

The last 11 teams won with elite athletes.

Being a fan of a certain type of offense does not mean that is the only offense to run and no one made that comment... even though most of the teams winning now do have a power run offense and dual threat quarterbacks with designed quarterback run plays... you know like Ohio State and Alabama. But that's not the subject.

Alabama didn't have any quarterback designed runs this year, nor a dual threat quarterback.

 

[HuskerPowerVA]

Yes, it's fairy tale thinking to do anything but extrapolate. We have X number of data points, so the trend will continue in that direction FOREVER. As of 1993 no team had ever won a national championship with a power run game featuring a triple option and fullback trap. It would have been foolish to try such a thing! Fairy tale thinking foolish!

================================

Aside from the mocking above, I agree with the premise that it's important to get good recruits. I mean, what's not to agree with? That's like saying, in order to become wealthy you need to get lots of money. Well, duh.

There was no bigger fan of the triple option than me.

Even though the previous 11 championships had been won by teams who did not run it? Fairy tale thinking. You were doing it.

The last 11 teams won with elite athletes.

Being a fan of a certain type of offense does not mean that is the only offense to run and no one made that comment... even though most of the teams winning now do have a power run offense and dual threat quarterbacks with designed quarterback run plays... you know like Ohio State and Alabama. But that's not the subject.

Alabama runs a pro offense, but not a dual threat QB.

 

[Husker Psycho]

Yes, it's fairy tale thinking to do anything but extrapolate. We have X number of data points, so the trend will continue in that direction FOREVER. As of 1993 no team had ever won a national championship with a power run game featuring a triple option and fullback trap. It would have been foolish to try such a thing! Fairy tale thinking foolish!

================================

Aside from the mocking above, I agree with the premise that it's important to get good recruits. I mean, what's not to agree with? That's like saying, in order to become wealthy you need to get lots of money. Well, duh.

There was no bigger fan of the triple option than me.

Even though the previous 11 championships had been won by teams who did not run it? Fairy tale thinking. You were doing it.

The last 11 teams won with elite athletes.

Being a fan of a certain type of offense does not mean that is the only offense to run and no one made that comment... even though most of the teams winning now do have a power run offense and dual threat quarterbacks with designed quarterback run plays... you know like Ohio State and Alabama. But that's not the subject.

Alabama runs a pro offense, but not a dual threat QB.

Sorry, I didn't mean to include Alabama in that this year... so I edited my comment.

I was reading this article in response to Nuance...

http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football-news/4614591-dual-threat-quarterbacks-nick-marshall-blake-sims-bo-wallace-brandon-harris-oregon-loses-playoff

Alabama has recruited dual threat quarterbacks the last 2 years.

The subject is recruiting... not offensive scheme. The last 11 teams won the national championship with elite athletes running various offensive schemes. The point being they all had elite athletes and wining a national championship without a boatload of elite athletes is impossible in modern football. A team full of average players isn't going to get it done.

See Michigan State this year. They won the big conference title this year with great coaching and yet they were helpless against Alabama to the tune of not scoring a single point in their playoff game... not even a Field Goal... nothing. They did not achieve the elite player metric and in fact they were the furthest away from it of the 4 teams playing.

 

[Bowfin]

Nick Saban and Urban Meyer get the best recruits because they are the best coaches that field the best teams. My guess is that if you had Saban and Meyer trade recruiting classes with any of the other Power 5 teams, it wouldn't change much for them or the other teams. However, since people see all of those star bellied sneetch recruits going into Alabama and Ohio State and then see subsequent success, they tend to credit the recruiting and not the coaching.

Recruits who have the luxury of picking whatever team they want are going to go where there has already been past success and a good chance of future success.

That is about all the credence and weight I give to recruiting.

 

[HuskerPowerVA]

Nick Saban and Urban Meyer get the best recruits because they are the best coaches that field the best teams. My guess is that if you had Saban and Meyer trade recruiting classes with any of the other Power 5 teams, it wouldn't change much for them or the other teams. However, since people see all of those star bellied sneetch recruits going into Alabama and Ohio State and then see subsequent success, they tend to credit the recruiting and not the coaching.

Recruits who have the luxury of picking whatever team they want are going to go where there has already been past success and a good chance of future success.

That is about all the credence and weight I give to recruiting.

I agree. It is also about the mentality, intensity and the culture those coaches instill and demand. Look at Harbaugh at UM. In one season they had a very different season with a lot of the same players as the year before.

 

[Husker Psycho]

Who is the genius that decided to declare to the world that recruiting matters?

Yeah, I declare to you all that grades matter when applying for college!

That would be ESPN in response to those claiming recruiting results don't matter... and there's a whole lot of people making that claim.