Comparing Sagarin's team rankings with AP/Coaches

Kiyoat Husker

Kiyoat Husker

All-Conference
Earlier this season I had created a thread comparing Brian Edwards' Vegas Insider poll with an average of the AP/Coaches. Unfortunately, I have seen way too much rapid fluctuation in his poll, and over time, his poll has come to basically mirror the AP/Coaches. Pretty disappointing.

On the other hand, Sagarin's ratings seem to show a greater degree of stability and contradiction to the AP/Coaches, so I did a comparison this week. Here's what I found:

Ranked Teams that are a little overrated:

Nebraska

Baylor

North Carolina

Ranked Teams that shouldn't be ranked at all:

Arkansas

West Virginia

Teams Recieving votes that are much worse than that:

Georgia

Maryland

Michigan State

Air Force

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Teams that are better than their ranking:

Oklahoma

Florida State

Teams that should be ranked, but aren't:

LSU

UCLA

Auburn

TCU

USC

Teams that shoud be recieving votes, but aren't:

Kansas State

Iowa

Washington State

Memphis

Pitt

Toledo

Notre Dame

edit: forgot to provide a link to Sagarin's Poll:

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

 
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Yeah, I think the early polls tend to overcompensate[SIZE=12pt]—[/SIZE]both up and down. Teams are penalized too much for losing a tough game and rewarded too much for winning several easy games. But these things tend to work themselves out over the course of the season. The rankings will become more accurate over time as more games are played. That said, the Sagarin ratings are probably more accurate at this midway point in the season.

 
I'm surprised Oklahoma is still ranked, and NO ...... Iowa should not be receiving points at all !

 
mel4red said:
I'm surprised Oklahoma is still ranked, and NO ...... Iowa should not be receiving points at all !
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Looking at their schedules, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Oklahoma wins out, getting into the top ten with a 10-2 record. Aside from Houston, they've only lost to Ohio State thus far. No shame in that.

As for Iowa, ... to me they are still dangerous enough to be a threat in all of their games, but more in a spoiler role than a legitimate division contender. I don't see them being ranked again this year, but getting votes? Sure, why not?

 
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With navy dismantling Houston, Tennessee losing and the potential of FSU beating Miami. We will be a top ten team. Can't remember when we were last ranked in the top ten.

 
IA State Husker said:
mel4red said:
I'm surprised Oklahoma is still ranked, and NO ...... Iowa should not be receiving points at all !
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Looking at their schedules, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Oklahoma wins out, getting into the top ten with a 10-2 record. Aside from Houston, they've only lost to Ohio State thus far. No shame in that.

As for Iowa, ... to me they are still dangerous enough to be a threat in all of their games, but more in a spoiler role than a legitimate division contender. I don't see them being ranked again this year, but getting votes? Sure, why not?
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IA State Husker said:
mel4red said:
I'm surprised Oklahoma is still ranked, and NO ...... Iowa should not be receiving points at all !
Click to expand...
Looking at their schedules, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Oklahoma wins out, getting into the top ten with a 10-2 record. Aside from Houston, they've only lost to Ohio State thus far. No shame in that.

As for Iowa, ... to me they are still dangerous enough to be a threat in all of their games, but more in a spoiler role than a legitimate division contender. I don't see them being ranked again this year, but getting votes? Sure, why not?
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With Houston losing to navy. That OU loss to Houston is now a bad loss.
 
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Big red surfers said:
With navy dismantling Houston, Tennessee losing and the potential of FSU beating Miami. We will be a top ten team. Can't remember when we were last ranked in the top ten.
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2011.

We were ranked #11 in 2014 before getting humiliated by Melvin Gordon and Wisconsin.

 
Big red surfers said:
FSU is not better then there ranking. On what ground are you basing this info on ?
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All I did was compare the AP/Coaches polls to Sagarin's poll. This is not my own opinion. I only considered teams that varied by 8 spots or more. The number of "teams receiving votes" varies in the AP/Coaches from week to week, but I used a rank of 40th as my cutoff line in Sagarin's rankings to estimate "teams receiving votes".

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Obviously you can pick on an individual game and say it disproves that they should or should not be ranked. One game doesn't make a season, though. Besides, regardless of how close the game was, a 20-something-ranked FSU team just beat a 10th ranked Miami.

 
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IA State Husker said:
Earlier this season I had created a thread comparing Brian Edwards' Vegas Insider poll with an average of the AP/Coaches. Unfortunately, I have seen way too much rapid fluctuation in his poll, and over time, his poll has come to basically mirror the AP/Coaches. Pretty disappointing.

On the other hand, Sagarin's ratings seem to show a greater degree of stability and contradiction to the AP/Coaches, so I did a comparison this week. Here's what I found:

Ranked Teams that are a little overrated:

Nebraska - BYE

Baylor - BYE

North Carolina #17 NC was DESTROYED by #25 Virginia Tech 34-3

Ranked Teams that shouldn't be ranked at all:

Arkansas - Lost to Bama 49-30. Hard to fault them for putting up 30. - Push

West Virginia - BYE

Teams Recieving votes that are much worse than that:

Georgia - Will play Sunday

Maryland - Lost to a bad (not receiving votes) Penn State team, 38-14

Michigan State - Hammered by BYU 31-14. BYU is 3-3.

Air Force - Lost to Wyoming 35-26

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Teams that are better than their ranking:

Oklahoma - Got by Texas 45-40. Push

Florida State - Squeaks by Miami 20-19. I'll give them credit because Miami was ranked #10 and undefeated.

Teams that should be ranked, but aren't:

LSU - Game with Florida Cancelled

UCLA - Still playing 4-1 Arizona St

Auburn - Dominated Miss State 38-14 (it was 35-0 at the half)

TCU - Squeaks by Kansas with last-minute field goal

USC - Beats #21 Colorado 21-17

Teams that shoud be recieving votes, but aren't:

Kansas State - Beat Texas Tech 44-38.

Iowa - Squeaks by Minnesota - Push

Washington State - Beating #15 Stanford 21-3 in 3rd Q

Memphis - Beats Temple 34-27.

Pitt - Beats Georgia Tech 37-34.

Toledo - Beat E. Michigan 35-20. Only Loss is to BYU by 2 points.

Notre Dame - Loses to NC State 10-3

edit: forgot to provide a link to Sagarin's Poll:

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
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Updating with results.....

Based only on this weeks results, Looks like Sagarin was very right about North Carolina, Auburn, and Washington State, fairly right about 8 others, and wrong about TCU and Notre Dame.

 
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OK, a little late this week, so will do it quickly:

(According to the Sagarin Ratings)

(includes teams getting votes)

Most overranked teams:

Navy -27.5

Georgia -21.5

Arizona State -18.5

Utah -16

Nebraska -12.5

Baylor -11.5

West Virginia -10

Arkansas -9

Most underranked teams:

UCLA +23

LSU +18

Wash St +16

Stanford +14.5

TCU +11

Oklahoma +8.5

 
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