SI Mailbag: What Are Realistic Short-Term Expectations for Nebraska?

[HS_Coach_C]

I remember watching a year 3 team play like it was their first time putting on pads due to piss poor coaching.  What people are forgetting, as Saunders mentioned, is that the schedule itself was harder than people are saying it was.  Many have said it was a cakewalk compared to this year, which is an exaggeration.

With even slightly better coaching, the team could have easily at least beaten NIU.  That's another reason I believe that 4-8 record isn't a good indicator of the talent level we had and the talent level Frost inherited.

I agree that the schedule was tough and the coaching was terrible, but those weren't the only problems.  The last staff did a pretty terrible job of recruiting the right numbers at certain positions, and they did a poor job of development and apparently strength training/conditioning.  So while the coaching problem has been taken care of (it will still take time to install schemes and work on fundamentals) those other two areas can not be fixed overnight.  They are being addressed, but it may take some time to really get them straightened out.

 

[Treand3]

I remember watching a year 3 team play like it was their first time putting on pads due to piss poor coaching.  What people are forgetting, as Saunders mentioned, is that the schedule itself was harder than people are saying it was.  Many have said it was a cakewalk compared to this year, which is an exaggeration.

With even slightly better coaching, the team could have easily at least beaten NIU.  That's another reason I believe that 4-8 record isn't a good indicator of the talent level we had and the talent level Frost inherited.

Feel with better coaching alone would've gained 3 more wins. Add better conditioning, an additional 2 imho. I do feel this team mailed it in after losing to Wisconsin, and essentially believed they had no shot going into the Ohio State game.

 

[Redux]

If a team goes 0-12 but had the toughest schedule in college football, does that make them a good team?  Obviously no, not sure how you're inferring tbat.  If you think I did, I assure you that you're mistaken.

Like I said above, we "kind of" solidly beat Rutgers and Illinois.  And that was before "NU gave up in mid October" like you like to keep repeating.  (I don't agree with that either or they would have folded at Purdue when they were down at the half).  From FACTS, not your conjecture, you can only honestly say that this team is coming in only a little bit above the level of Rutgers and Illinois and below the level of a lot of other teams.  So all the stories of players giving up and even Diaco saying how he had to move again were fabricated?  Unlikely.  I'm glad they pueced together a comeback to beat Purdue, but if they hadn't given up, they would have been able to handle that team before a comeback was necesssary.

Other things you are not acknowledging is that every one on the roster is going to be a freshman in regard to the scheme they are running (offense and defense) and from a fundamentals stand point (blocking and tackling) I would argue that most are coming in below a freshman level.  Maybe that's true for some, but definitely not all.  I think with an actual smidge of guidance and direction these players will actually know what they are being asked to do.

I think the main issue, that keeps getting argued back and forth in this thread, is you boldly proclaiming that you expect at least 8 wins and anything less is a disappointment.  That proclamation does not adequately recognize the starting point of this team and the monumental coaching effort and ability it will take to reach those 8 wins.  Now, I think most every Husker fan believes that this coaching staff has that ability and will put in the effort that is required to accomplish that immense challenge, but if all the balls don't bounce our way, I think we're realistic enough to know that 6-6 is not a disappointment based on the status of the team on 1/1/18 and the schedule that they face.  No, I didnt.  I have said, and I want to move past this for everyones sanities sake, I would not be impressed or excited by 6-6.  I feel we are capable of at least 8 wins, just my opinion.  I wouldn't be calling for heads because that would be dumb.  But I wouldn't be impressed and neither would a lot of peoole even if they don't want to admit it.  Neither would the players, neither would the staff. Those saying 6-6 would be marked improvement, consider this:

Winning 6 games likely means this is basically our record:

Akron- W

Colorado- W

Troy- W

@Michigan- L

Purdue- W (some .500 folks think this is a loss)

@Wiscy- L

@NW- W

Minny- L

@tOSU- L

Illinois- W

MSU- L

@Iowa- L

That's "marked improvement"?  Losing to a team we should beat plus all top 5 teams on the schedule?  Just beacuase we beat 6 cupcakes instead of only beating 4, that's "marked improvement"?

It's not.  We are capable of more than this, we will do better than .500

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

When you almost lose to Arkansas State and Purdue, and lose to Northern Illinois, does that really matter? 

Not that it really matters, but Arkansas State, Purdue, and Northern Illinois all went to bowl games while we sat at home.

 

[yort2000]

So all the stories of players giving up and even Diaco saying how he had to move again were fabricated?  Unlikely.  I'm glad they pueced together a comeback to beat Purdue, but if they hadn't given up, they would have been able to handle that team before a comeback was necesssary.

Link to these stories.  If you mean the BS people banter about on these fan forums, you actually believe the stuff you read on here from unknown people?  I believe that just as much as I believe you when you opine that last year's team was not a 4-8 team.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

The Callahan/Cosgrove team also gave up in the middle of the season in 2007. Many of the players were from the previous 9 win team in 2006 that had played Texas and Auburn tough.  But they melted down in a series of blowouts on the way to a 5-7 season under a pro-style quarterback transfer and complete defensive collapse.  

Bo Pelini took the same players from that 5 win season to a 9 win season the next year. It wasn't exactly shocking. It's what we wanted and expected. The Michigans, Floridas, Notre Dames, and Oklahomas of the world have all cratered out with miserable losing seasons, and turned around immediately with a new coach and fresh start.

Scott Frost just needs as good or better than Bo Pelini. I'm willing to bet he is. 

 

[huskerfan333157]

The Callahan/Cosgrove team also gave up in the middle of the season in 2007. Many of the players were from the previous 9 win team in 2006 that had played Texas and Auburn tough.  But they melted down in a series of blowouts on the way to a 5-7 season under a pro-style quarterback transfer and complete defensive collapse.  

Bo Pelini took the same players from that 5 win season to a 9 win season the next year. It wasn't exactly shocking. It's what we wanted and expected. The Michigans, Floridas, Notre Dames, and Oklahomas of the world have all cratered out with miserable losing seasons, and turned around immediately with a new coach and fresh start.

Scott Frost just needs as good or better than Bo Pelini. I'm willing to bet he is. 

Actually, Bob stoops went .500 his first year, Florida went from 4-8 to 7-5 then 10-4.  Michigan did go from 5-7 to 10-4 they also had the #5 and #7 recruiting classes prior to that 10-4 year.   Notre dame did go 6-6 one year but did go two games better and went 8-5 the next year under Kelly.  Most coaches don't have a 4 win turn around, bo was one of the very few exceptions.  I hope I'm proved wrong though!

 

[TheSker]

Most coaches don't have a 4 win turn around, bo was one of the very few exceptions.  I hope I'm proved wrong though!

The good news is that Frost had a 6 game turn around followed by a 7 game improvement over that.

I am appreciative of the job Pelini did and believe Frost has an even better chance of placing us among the college football elite again.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

I guess my theory is based on both the 2007 and 2017 teams having (somewhat) better talent that those 5-7 and 4-8 records, but with the coaches on death watch and the locker rooms full of tension and finger-pointing, the play was going to suffer. 

Those are the scenarios where a four win swing isn't too much to expect, and a .500 season would feel like the bare minimum.

In my 50 years as a Husker fan "not getting blown out" was never a goal to celebrate, but that's probably where we are at the moment. 

 

[Redux]

Link to these stories.  If you mean the BS people banter about on these fan forums, you actually believe the stuff you read on here from unknown people?  I believe that just as much as I believe you when you opine that last year's team was not a 4-8 team.

Believe what ya want so it fits your narrative.  Meanwhile I'm well aware of the mess that was Nebraska's coaching staff last year.  And if you don't think that last years team was actually capable of beating NIU then I literally have nothing more to say to you.

Link, lol.  

 

[huskerfan333157]

The good news is that Frost had a 6 game turn around followed by a 7 game improvement over that.

I am appreciative of the job Pelini did and believe Frost has an even better chance of placing us among the college football elite again.

I have no doubt that frost will continually have us in the top 15/20 with a few top 10 finishes.  I just feel like frost has too many variables against him his first year.  It takes more than 3 months to "transform" your bodies and who knows how long it will take the players to grasp the new schemes.  Look at Milton, he was average in the first year in the system but was a stud the next year!  

 

[yort2000]

The Callahan/Cosgrove team also gave up in the middle of the season in 2007. Many of the players were from the previous 9 win team in 2006 that had played Texas and Auburn tough.  But they melted down in a series of blowouts on the way to a 5-7 season under a pro-style quarterback transfer and complete defensive collapse.  

Bo Pelini took the same players from that 5 win season to a 9 win season the next year. It wasn't exactly shocking. It's what we wanted and expected. The Michigans, Floridas, Notre Dames, and Oklahomas of the world have all cratered out with miserable losing seasons, and turned around immediately with a new coach and fresh start.

Scott Frost just needs as good or better than Bo Pelini. I'm willing to bet he is. 

That 2008 team won a grand total of 2 games over teams that made it to bowl games.  Western Michigan that got boat raced by Rice in their bowl game and Kansas that went 4-4 in the Big 12, beating the same crap teams NU feasted on.

The 2018 schedule is comprised of 9 teams that made it to bowl games in 2017.  Now, I know that a 2017 bowl team may not be a 2018 bowl team, but for hypothetical sake let's say they all are 2018 bowl teams.   Then in comparison to 2008, beating the 3 non bowl teams plus 2 bowl teams gets you to 5 wins.

 

[junior4949]

The Callahan/Cosgrove team also gave up in the middle of the season in 2007. Many of the players were from the previous 9 win team in 2006 that had played Texas and Auburn tough.  But they melted down in a series of blowouts on the way to a 5-7 season under a pro-style quarterback transfer and complete defensive collapse.  

Bo Pelini took the same players from that 5 win season to a 9 win season the next year. It wasn't exactly shocking. It's what we wanted and expected. The Michigans, Floridas, Notre Dames, and Oklahomas of the world have all cratered out with miserable losing seasons, and turned around immediately with a new coach and fresh start.

Scott Frost just needs as good or better than Bo Pelini. I'm willing to bet he is. 

There's a big difference to me here.  Watson was retained on Bo's staff.  Joe Ganz was a seasoned veteran compared to what we'll have under center.  We have no hold overs from the previous staff.  The QB will have very little to zero experience at this level.  The 08' defense wasn't exactly the well oiled machine they turned into in the 09' season.  The defense will be better than last year.  The offense should be better than last year.  However, we lost quite a few games by three scores or more last year.  Marked improvement would simply be keeping some of those blowouts close.  I will be elated with an eight or nine win season, but I sure as heck don't expect it.

 

[yort2000]

Believe what ya want so it fits your narrative.  Meanwhile I'm well aware of the mess that was Nebraska's coaching staff last year.  And if you don't think that last years team was actually capable of beating NIU then I literally have nothing more to say to you.

Link, lol.  

I believe that the team was capable of beating NIU, but I also think they were capable of losing to Arkansas State and Purdue.  So, I would say from a capability standpoint this team is starting from an NIU, Arky State, Purdue baseline level.

Aren't you believing what you want to fit your narrative also?

 

[Redux]

I believe that the team was capable of beating NIU, but I also think they were capable of losing to Arkansas State and Purdue.  So, I would say from a capability standpoint this team is starting from an NIU, Arky State, Purdue baseline level.

Aren't you believing what you want to fit your narrative also?

I'm still waiting to hear if you think the 6-6 scenario I laid out is actually progress or if it's actually the ceiling we are capable of.