Bracketology

Will Nebrasketball Make the NCAA Tournament?

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  • Our double-digit Minnesota win doesn't get enough respect when they were #14 in the country with Reggie Lynch. They clearly aren't the same team without him since he was expelled
  • We are 2-1 against ranked teams at home, both of them double digit wins. Kansas by basically a last second shot loss 

Having Purdue, Mich St, and Ohio St on the road and neither back at home sucked this year in regards to our schedule. We can finish 16-3 -- no way can someone tell me we aren't deserving if that happens. 

 
I still worry about the optics of playing our conference tourney so early, especially when there's still plenty of good bubble and tourney games while our kids will be done (win or lose). It's not good to have the entire conference sitting on its hands while the rest of the nation goes at it--out of sight, out of mind and all that. 

As for scheduling...I'll just chalk this year up to a fluke. But if we continue to have our B1G schedule work against us, and we continue to see success, we're gonna need Moos to say something to the conference about how it creates schedules going forward. 

 
BTN did a segment on the five most important B1G games left in the year.  They list the PSU@NU game a week from Sunday as the biggest game in the conference.  The Vault is going to be a mad house!  :)

 
BIG ERN said:
  • Our double-digit Minnesota win doesn't get enough respect when they were #14 in the country with Reggie Lynch. They clearly aren't the same team without him since he was expelled
  • We are 2-1 against ranked teams at home, both of them double digit wins. Kansas by basically a last second shot loss 

Having Purdue, Mich St, and Ohio St on the road and neither back at home sucked this year in regards to our schedule. We can finish 16-3 -- no way can someone tell me we aren't deserving if that happens. 
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More great points. I hope you’re on the committee, or they read HB.

 
OWH Article

This is another article from Dirk that has a response from Bruce Rasmussen, selection committee chairman and Creighton athletic director, to his article about non-con SOS.

Some tidbits:

Where Dirk's column is misleading and doesn't give you the entire story is this: Dirk says that the non-conference SOS is a "prominent tool" in tournament selection. This is ABSOLUTELY incorrect. Non-conference SOS is not a predominant tool in selections.
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To speak to Nebraska's non-conference schedule, the committee will discuss not only that they played Kansas, Creighton, St. John's, Central Florida, Boston College, Long Beach State, North Texas, UTSA, etc., it will also discuss the location of those games, and the specifics of each game (one possession games against Kansas and Creighton, a UCF team that has been decimated by injuries, and teams like Long Beach State, North Texas and UTSA that traditionally have been good in their respective conferences). 
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In Nebraska's case specifically, the committee will also discuss the first Minnesota game where Minnesota was closer to full strength, and the fact that Nebraska played Michigan State, Purdue and Ohio State only on the road. The committee will also discuss the transformation of the Nebraska team from the beginning of the year to the end of the year.
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We also need to talk about losses. While we refer to 1st and 2nd quadrant wins, we also need to refer to losses (or lack of losses) in the 3rd and 4th quadrants. Winning the games you are supposed to win is more difficult in a 30+ game schedule than some might think.
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Something I keep forgetting about in all of this is that we have more games other than just our last three.

I would think how we do in the conference tournament is going to play a big factor in this.

 
BigRedBuster said:
Something I keep forgetting about in all of this is that we have more games other than just our last three.

I would think how we do in the conference tournament is going to play a big factor in this.
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Didn't somebody on the committee tell Boehm that if we won out (23-8) we'd be 99% in? I thought I read that somewhere on Twitter.

 
BigRedBuster said:
Something I keep forgetting about in all of this is that we have more games other than just our last three.

I would think how we do in the conference tournament is going to play a big factor in this.
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Yeah, I think that will make a lot of difference.  If we can even get one win in the tournament - assuming we stay as the #4 seed - that would be a decent win.  If we are one-and-done, it will kind of lend credence to the perception that we stacked up a bunch of wins against a soft schedule.

 
B.B. Hemingway said:
Didn't somebody on the committee tell Boehm that if we won out (23-8) we'd be 99% in? I thought I read that somewhere on Twitter.
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That was the story but I think it was actually from ESPN Stats & Info as opposed to someone on the committee.  I think Boehm might have said it was from the committee but was either mis-informed or mis-spoke.

 
The record for wins in a season is 26, in case anyone is interested. I do not know if that would include postseason play because we got bounced in the first round that year.

 
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VectorVictor said:
I still worry about the optics of playing our conference tourney so early, especially when there's still plenty of good bubble and tourney games while our kids will be done (win or lose). It's not good to have the entire conference sitting on its hands while the rest of the nation goes at it--out of sight, out of mind and all that. 

As for scheduling...I'll just chalk this year up to a fluke. But if we continue to have our B1G schedule work against us, and we continue to see success, we're gonna need Moos to say something to the conference about how it creates schedules going forward. 
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You are right on the scheduling fluke. Ohio St. was picked near the bottom of the conference while Minnesota was considered a challenger for the top. Wisconsin has dropped off to point they haven't been in long time. Flip those over in NU's schedule and things probably look different. Not sure how they draw up the schedules but it can fall both ways. Look at Rutgers, they get Purdue, Ohio St., Michigan St., Nebraska twice and Illinois, Indiana, Iowa and Minnesota once. But they played Minnesota in early December when they were full strength. So the Scarlet Knights definitely got the worst draw.

 
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