Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

Ulty said:
Early mitigation? Nebraska and Ricketts did jack $h!t for mitigation.
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Um we’ve been essentially shut down since mid March.  Dr Fauci said yesterday what rickets has put in place amounts to a stay at home order.  Kids have been out of school since March  13th if not before.  We haven’t gone anywhere outside our neighborhood besides the grocery store since.   Soooooo.......

 
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Landlord said:
"The garbage models" just screams of a lack of understanding of the scientific method
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How would you explain using NYC and Italy as the original data input in a model that  overplays or projects every location in the US.   You don’t see the issue with that?  How about NYC based on the models being 50-70k hospitalizations off, 5-8k icu admits off, good “modeling”....no problem using those projections and rolling them across the country?  They finally updated the model on Sunday.  On Sunday they were still off projected vs actual even in NYC by 50k hospitalizations?  Good model?  Appropriate to use and roll out those projections across the country?  Yes it was garbage and continues to be garbage.  The fact we are using this “model” to make decisions is the definition of insanity.

 
N is for nowledge said:
I didn’t say that.  Jesus do you guys actually read what I said.  NYC isn’t NE and no what is happening in NYC isn’t coming to NE in part because of our early mitigation.  What is happening in NYC is real, that being said, the model used data set from Italy and NYC and plugged to every scenario across the US.  Surely you see the issue with that and it’s why it’s way off.  I said what we are doing now was necessary but it shouldn’t go in much past early May without some EASING of restrictions.  
 

the fall isn’t now but 4-5 months from now and a lot can change.....one being our understanding of this virus which right now is pretty clear we have no friggin idea....hence the garbage modeling.  
 

btw, before anyone gets high and mighty.  My family and I haven’t left the house since March outside of the trips to the grocery stores
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No, what you did say or imply, is that the original models are all wrong and proof of that is that they have been adjusted.  

the fact is we don’t know how serious this is yet, anyone that tells you otherwise is lying.  If we did know anything about this the original “models” wouldn’t have been scribbled on a roll of quilted charmin, and been off, at least by yesterday’s numbers, 150k hospitalizations to the negative.....5k icu admits to the negative.  They finally revised those #’s saying 80k (not 240k) will die but even those numbers, projected vs actual, were off on hospitalizations and icu admits significantly.  There are a dozen therapeutic agents in review or trial.  Not to mention they are artificially raising the death rate caused by COVID-19, not bs and well documented.  Look it up, as an example, the 80 yr old that passed last week in Douglas county was called covid....he’d been in hospice for a week before dx.
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Which is flat out wrong.

These original models would have been pretty dead on if nobody had done any precautionary actions.  

But...around the world and in the US there HAVE been precautionary measures taken, so the models can be adjusted.

Then, you imply that all the data on deaths is all wrong and they are lying to us and you point out two cases as evidence that a significant portion of the almost 11,000 deaths are all false.

Now, I'm glad you are taking it more seriously than your original post indicated.  THAT'S how we will end up having football in the fall.  I just hope the vast majority of people are doing the same thing.

 
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BigRedBuster said:
No, what you did say or imply, is that the original models are all wrong and proof of that is that they have been adjusted.  

Which is flat out wrong.

These original models would have been pretty dead on if nobody had done any precautionary actions.  

But...around the world and in the US there HAVE been precautionary measures taken, so the models can be adjusted.

Then, you imply that all the data on deaths is all wrong and they are lying to us and you point out two cases as evidence that a significant portion of the almost 11,000 deaths are all false.

Now, I'm glad you are taking it more seriously than your original post indicated.  THAT'S how we will end up having football in the fall.  I just hope the vast majority of people are doing the same thing.
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The original models were based on the distancing implemented so try again.  The model that predicted no intervention was 1.5-2.5 million deaths.  Yes the models are garbage and continue to be garbage.  That’s pretty indisputable but if you have any facts on why I’m wrong I’m all ears.  
 

I didn’t say ALL the data on deaths was wrong I questioned how SOME are being categorized.  Look at the yoy deaths accounted for pneumonia, lowest level in 10-15 yrs....why.  Again, wanting answers or questioning isn’t saying this isn’t more than what I originally thought it was, but it’s clear it’s a far cry from what the hysteria has made it.  
 

Back to the point of the thread is we will know much more about this in 30 days and be light yrs ahead in 4-5 months.  What is the actual fatality rate, we have the numerator (kind of) but not even close on the denominator.  What about therapy, as this wasn’t as much about infections but overloading the health care system.  What if we find therapy that reduces hospitalizations by 50%-75%.  Lots still to find out.

and I’ll again add this isn’t just about football.  The economic fallout will carry on.  Many fbs programs by their own admission won’t be able to carry on, meaning none of their other sports do either.  Less scholarships available for kids, less adults with college education, and economic strain becomes generational.  Whole towns are teetering after 30 days....the idea this continues for 4-5 months isn’t realistic nor practical.  

 
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Atbone95 said:
Woah much info very informed. What a great discussion on Nebraska football 
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Well the overall point was this isn’t freaking Ebola or the plague as much as people have bought into the idea it is.  Making declarations that will ruin people’s livelihoods on events taking place 4-5 months from now.  The information is out there if ppl can read and think for themselves instead of being told what to think.

again, I think early mitigation was needed but ongoing will need to have a different plan.  Drs birx and Fauci have said this exact same thing.

 
N is for nowledge said:
Interesting take on “facts”.  
 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=14&ved=2ahUKEwiah5eFyNboAhUIQ60KHTDyBHQQFjANegQIBRAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.statista.com%2Fchart%2F21305%2Fprojected-coronavirus-deaths-compared-to-historical-events%2F&usg=AOvVaw15Xri9XMgnB878pPttQcJW
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What's the point of posting that and how does that prove your point?

I laughed because the original models were without social distancing which indicated 1.5-2 million deaths.  You then basically point that out in your post and use it to try to argue against what I said.

FYI....there are some who now believe the death toll in Wuhan is 40,000+  If you extrapolate that out to the US population, that comes out to roughly 1.18 million.    That 40,000+ in Wuhan still was affectively lowered by social distancing that was eventually put in place.

Nothing you have posted indicates that the models are garbage like you seem to think.

 
N is for nowledge said:
Making declarations that will ruin people’s livelihoods on events taking place 4-5 months from now.
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Nobody is making decisions for 4-5 months from now yet.  The point of the thread was to guess if we will or not have a football season.  That will be decided as we get closer to that time.

again, I think early mitigation was needed but ongoing will need to have a different plan.  Drs birx and Fauci have said this exact same thing.
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I don't see anyone disputing that.

 
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@N is for nowledge

The majority of posters/readers here won't like this post... oh well, so what. I totally agree with everything you're saying here bud and that said, I think you've proven that you can't fix stupid/ignorance/sheepals blind beliefs. Follow my lead on this one, read the forum, stay informed, speak only with your loved ones and immediate friends on this while letting the sheepal cater to their own fears. :o :facepalm:

 
D'oh... thought I hit edit. sorry for the double post. I'm such a noob forum user. :facepalm:

as for the original question..

No there won't be a season without an inoculation. The reason is simple, risk vs reward.

Team A plays Team B week 1 and Team C week 2.

Team A has a player test positive before week 3 game and is forced to forfeit.

Teams B & C because they were exposed and may also have infections will also be required to forfeit.

The team (say team D) that played team B in week 2 may also be exposed to they too are required to forfeit.

and well.... on and on and on go the forfeits...

Nope, I don't see a 2020 season. Hope I'm wrong though.

 
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BigRedBuster said:
What's the point of posting that and how does that prove your point?

I laughed because the original models were without social distancing which indicated 1.5-2 million deaths.  You then basically point that out in your post and use it to try to argue against what I said.

FYI....there are some who now believe the death toll in Wuhan is 40,000+  If you extrapolate that out to the US population, that comes out to roughly 1.18 million.    That 40,000+ in Wuhan still was affectively lowered by social distancing that was eventually put in place.

Nothing you have posted indicates that the models are garbage like you seem to think.
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Umm.  They’ve already adjusted anticipated deaths from 100k-250k down to roughly 80k and cdc director dr Hahn stated yesterday those are likely high.  
 

can we agree the model they used for nationwide modeling was the IHME.  Dr birx stated they used NYC and Italy as the data set assuming the current social distancing measures, which by that time was mostly well in place.  April 5th update on NYC....projected hospitalizations were off 54k, icu admits off 8k.  NYC was the major data input for the entire model and was off by 54k hospitalizations?  Do you not see the issue with this?  On April 6th they updated the model and were still off almost 15k hospitalizations and 3-4K icu admits, on the day they released it.  How are the models, if they lack any accuracy at all not garbage.

again, my point is this was more serious than I gave it credit for in the short term but to expect this disruption to be in place 4-5 months from now, based on what we know now, is irresponsible at a minimum.  At some point the “cure” becomes worse than the disease and we are quickly approaching that time.

 
junior4949 said:
We're living history here.  I tell my kids almost daily that these are the days they will never forget for the rest of their lives.  It's telling when my 81 year old father-in-law calls asking what I think is about to happen.  99+ percent of the general population hasn't lived this before.  I have no idea whether the season will be played this year or not.  I voted no games played.  However, I don't think this is the most important question.  The most important question is what will be the new normal once this passes?  We have no idea what the paradigm shift will be if any.  Maybe, sports just won't be that important to people.  Economists are already talking about 30-50 million people being unemployed before we get through this.  I've read about how much cleaner the air is around cities around the World because people are staying home and are not driving.  Maybe, people just won't be that interested in going to games in the future?  Maybe, they simply won't have the money?  With the Spanish Flu, it came in waves.  It's already being speculated we'll see this again potentially this fall.   

It is quite possible I'm reading too much into this historic event.  It is also quite possible that I'm just pi$$ed about mankind right now because it is more than a little disturbing living out here near the Colorado border watching people who are under a state stay at home order flock our lakes and our stores potentially dragging the virus here with them.  One local grocery store had to close because the Denver residents came and wiped the store out of inventory.  I just think we are way too early into this to even begin to assume there will be a football season in 2020.    
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Because it’s not just about sports.  Jobs and businesses are directly associated with sporting events, concerts, etc....many hotels and restaurants are small business owners.  A place like downtown Lincoln, among many others, simply won’t make it without a season.  That’s not just about downtown Lincoln but the people that have jobs down there, gone, all across the nation.  “Cure“ can’t be worse than the disease.

 
I've read and I'm of the opinion that several small businesses won't make it.  It doesn't matter if there is a season or not, quite a few of them aren't going to make it.  Nearly a quarter of the nation's ethanol plants have closed.  Some of them won't open even when this passes.  Nebraska is highly dependent upon agriculture.  There are several involved in agriculture that aren't going to make it. 

I don't necessarily disagree with what you're saying especially about the cure not being worse than the disease.  I'm simply stating that the direction we're going and the path we're taking leads us right smack into a depression and quite possibly a long and deep depression.  In the last month, I've been reading quite a bit more than normal.  At first, almost all experts agreed that this virus started from the "wet" market in Wuhan.  People claiming it came from their biolab were labelled tin foil hat conspiracy theorists.  Now, more and more experts are saying that it came from the biolab because the bats carrying this virus are not native to Wuhan and are found roughly 900 km away.  China has already sent test kits to Spain that only had a 30% accuracy.  Now, they are sending defunct medical supplies to England.  There are getting to be more and more articles by the day stating how China needs to answer for all of the lies and such.  Right now, I'm a lot more concerned about WW3 than I am about whether there's a college football season or not. 

 
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